Google as a search engine in 5-10 years will be about as popular as using AIM as a messaging app in 2012. I almost never use Google search anymore, ChatGPT is so much better at answering basic questions now.
I can see a two-tiered search ecosystem in the future. Poors using free search like Google with ads and shit and the rest paying some monthly fee for ad-free AI searches like OpenAI/Grok.
Google is obviously already integrating its shitty AI results, but what happens if google's AI results get better or just integrate AI queries anyway? I know google used to be an innovation company oh long ago, but this seems like it would be a massive failure to adapt on their part.
My honest opinion is when you look at their earnings over the years is that search/ads continue to be 80% of total revenue because all the other shit they have tried over the years doesn't work/make money. No other revenue stream they have tried has grown faster than their ad revenue. They are and have been a one-trick pony who held an unofficial monopoly in the space. As Blaz pointed out a while back, AI "Should" be a dagger in them from an ad revenue perspective. I have spent a few weeks looking for ways they are going to counter it, and can't find one. Waymo is their best shot, but ultimately they dont make the cars so its a licensing play if they can get car manufacturers not named TSLA onboard.
Google already has an AI answering your question and the normal links below. No way they lose their dominance as a search engine.
I don't see why they can't use an AI supported by ads, just like youtube. Like they can give full Grok or ChatGPT style answers but here watch this 10 second ad first. AI compute is expensive, some people will pay (just like some people pay for youtube premium) but many will not and will watch the ads or maybe go into an ad-blocker war like youtube.
Inline sponsored (highlighted) citations. Same way grok and the other AI do it, just monetized.
