Google as a search engine in 5-10 years will be about as popular as using AIM as a messaging app in 2012. I almost never use Google search anymore, ChatGPT is so much better at answering basic questions now.
I can see a two-tiered search ecosystem in the future. Poors using free search like Google with ads and shit and the rest paying some monthly fee for ad-free AI searches like OpenAI/Grok.
Google is obviously already integrating its shitty AI results, but what happens if google's AI results get better or just integrate AI queries anyway? I know google used to be an innovation company oh long ago, but this seems like it would be a massive failure to adapt on their part.
My honest opinion is when you look at their earnings over the years is that search/ads continue to be 80% of total revenue because all the other shit they have tried over the years doesn't work/make money. No other revenue stream they have tried has grown faster than their ad revenue. They are and have been a one-trick pony who held an unofficial monopoly in the space. As Blaz pointed out a while back, AI "Should" be a dagger in them from an ad revenue perspective. I have spent a few weeks looking for ways they are going to counter it, and can't find one. Waymo is their best shot, but ultimately they dont make the cars so its a licensing play if they can get car manufacturers not named TSLA onboard.
Google already has an AI answering your question and the normal links below. No way they lose their dominance as a search engine.
I don't see why they can't use an AI supported by ads, just like youtube. Like they can give full Grok or ChatGPT style answers but here watch this 10 second ad first. AI compute is expensive, some people will pay (just like some people pay for youtube premium) but many will not and will watch the ads or maybe go into an ad-blocker war like youtube.
Inline sponsored (highlighted) citations. Same way grok and the other AI do it, just monetized.
Yeah because people LOVE all the other ads and irrelevant bs that pops up in their search results meanwhile grok or ChatGPT can answer my question directly with citations and I don’t have to see ads for Chinese gizmos.
The thing that will be the death knell for Google search will, ironically, be something they've done to other technologies. Commoditized absorption. In 5 years nobody (or EXTREMELY FEW people) will go to a page to use a search engine. Search is being absorbed into the interfaces people use to get to the internet. This started when the default behavior of the address bar in a browser stopped being "cannot reach that address" and became "you typed in something I can't get to, let me show you a search engine search for whatever that was you just typed in". Google could survive with this since there was legal precedent to force MS to allow Google to set itself to be the default that Edge/IE used, and they had their own browser (Chrome) where they would be the default.
It's the same thing as how Facebook is still making money, and like you said in the post before this, it's basically just going to be boomers propping up Google until they eventually die off if they can't figure out a way to make more money.
People will use the easiest search available to them and expect it to work. Googles play is android and apples play is iOS search. I think both of those may end up too limited. Shit like grok and ChatGPT are also probably not what wins either though imo unless their AI’s stay head and shoulders above the others. What wins is meta or TikTok ai imo because users are already in those apps for other reasons and just prefer to stay in them to search shit or ask random questions.
