Investing General Discussion
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Rangoth
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We look to be having a strong finish today with no end of day sell-off! It may be nothing but a race to our previous ATH now as there is not much resistance until over 600$
I know we cannot read into a single metric too much, but it blows my mind that the C to P ratio is still 1:1.2, daily and overall. There is still a huge sentiment that a drop is coming. Just today someone bought 3.8$ million in June puts @470$ strike and someone else 3.5$ million @505$ same date. I'm guessing they are hoping for a fast drop day to make a quick profit but that a lot of money on a short lived expiry! Worth tracking the open interest on something like this to see when they bail
I know we cannot read into a single metric too much, but it blows my mind that the C to P ratio is still 1:1.2, daily and overall. There is still a huge sentiment that a drop is coming. Just today someone bought 3.8$ million in June puts @470$ strike and someone else 3.5$ million @505$ same date. I'm guessing they are hoping for a fast drop day to make a quick profit but that a lot of money on a short lived expiry! Worth tracking the open interest on something like this to see when they bail
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Blazin
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No govt reduction in spending = no disinflation=more inflation in the future=stonks go up
This will stop being true if the market feared the fed raising rates, not only is the market not concerned with this it is operating on the belief they are going to cut.
We keep going down this path we are going to get 1929 crash but much worse, it will be up. We will all be rich until we realize our new found wealth doesn't buy anything. Its the illusion of wealth. SPX 20,000 and you'll be poorer than when it was at 3000 that is where this train is headed. Lots can change and the future is cloudy, maybe tech driven productivity saves us.
All sounds absurd but it's already happening, was looking at some retaining stones this weekend. Not a complicated item and $3 a piece. Just a half decade ago they were 70 cents. Even with increased lower end wages a worker would have to work an entire day to buy a small number of....stones/concrete. We are getting poorer.
Wait think about it more, the next step is loosen banking/lending regs freeing up regional banks. We have the highest level of untapped home equity ever by a long shot. So let's couple 11TRILLION in new govt deficit spending in just 4 years and trillions more in lending.
So repeat myself, there is no way out but to devalue the dollar we can hem and haw and pretend we are taking this course or that, but in the end there is only one path everything else is cope.
Oh and 10,000 boomers retire everyday...lol govt spending goes brrr.
This will stop being true if the market feared the fed raising rates, not only is the market not concerned with this it is operating on the belief they are going to cut.
We keep going down this path we are going to get 1929 crash but much worse, it will be up. We will all be rich until we realize our new found wealth doesn't buy anything. Its the illusion of wealth. SPX 20,000 and you'll be poorer than when it was at 3000 that is where this train is headed. Lots can change and the future is cloudy, maybe tech driven productivity saves us.
All sounds absurd but it's already happening, was looking at some retaining stones this weekend. Not a complicated item and $3 a piece. Just a half decade ago they were 70 cents. Even with increased lower end wages a worker would have to work an entire day to buy a small number of....stones/concrete. We are getting poorer.
Wait think about it more, the next step is loosen banking/lending regs freeing up regional banks. We have the highest level of untapped home equity ever by a long shot. So let's couple 11TRILLION in new govt deficit spending in just 4 years and trillions more in lending.
So repeat myself, there is no way out but to devalue the dollar we can hem and haw and pretend we are taking this course or that, but in the end there is only one path everything else is cope.
Oh and 10,000 boomers retire everyday...lol govt spending goes brrr.
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tugofpeace
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Despite all the inflation since the pandemic, the only severe price increase I notice is food and housing. I think food can continue to rise while housing will stabilize.
I think we are still a far ways off from realizing that our new found wealth doesn't buy anything.
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Sanrith Descartes
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At the end of the day, should 1929 v2 come to pass, would you rather be living in a mega city like NYC or out in the boonies.
This is a trick question. Imagine NYC when those who have spent generations having the gubmint feed and house them all of sudden lose all that. Or if not lose it, have it shrunk significantly. Live in rural areas and balkanize. If you don't grow your own food, be friends with those who do.
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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I mean, I think a lot of us have been calling this inevitable in the Politics thread for years.
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Arden
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I hesitate to even ask you anything about btc, since you've previously made it clear in several occasions that you aren't a fan. Not sure if you've changed your mind- but isn't your entire post pretty much an advertisement for bitcoin?
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I see multiple disparate types of people all hinting at this being what we're in for. 2032-2035 is what most people are guessing as the time frame. The closer we get, the more I think it's true.
One person I've seen talk about something that might throw a whitepilled wrench into all of this: separate markets for domestic and foreign dollars that Tom Luongo has been talking about lately. I don't understand it all fully, but I think the foreign dollar markets will be tied to stablecoins such as USDT? Or there's some kind of other digital currency that will provide the same function. Foreign dollars will be free to inflate to the moon, while domestic dollars stay stable. Or that's as much of the theory as I understand, which might be wrong.
The other factor he talks about is the creation of a sovereign wealth fund, similar to what China has done (among others). I believe that works by counting all of the resources we have untapped and still in the ground as collateral and then eventually capitalizing it over time, but I'm not certain on that.
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Blazin
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We talking like 2018 or something? I own and have been buying BTC
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tugofpeace
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I looked up NYC demographics out of curiosity.. 28% hispanic, 20% black.
Half of the population are likely on gibs or are criminals. Lmao
Arden
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Yeah it was several years ago. I saw you moved into the space with the ETFs, but i didn't know you were holding the actual asset.
Sanrith Descartes
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Blazin
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Started with ETFs when they launched then began buying BTC directly. Bought a decent amount during this last pullback. My biggest issue was worry about Govt strangling the baby in the crib when they failed to do that began to change outlook.
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Burnem Wizfyre
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Fucker
Log Wizard
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The problem with housing prices is that it is a national problem. In the past 4 years, there were a few big hot spots, now prices are up across the board. Sure, prices in some areas are stabilizing, but they've stabilized out of reach for many.
This place I am in, prices are rising and they still have a ways to go. People are still flooding in from the coasts and filling every livable nook and cranny. They pay hugely over ask and drive out locals from counties/towns/cities where they grew up. As Gravel pointed out, tech companies that have produced nothing of value generated huge pseudo-piles of cash for employees. investors, and owners. No one cared when this pseudo wealth was localized, but now it is national in scope. From large investment companies buying up massive numbers of houses to former employees bringing millions in cash and paying double over ask, and anyone who didn't get to ride that wave is getting fucked....which is most people.
Everything surrounding housing has gone up a huge amount in 5 short years. Mortgages, rents. Cost of repairs are now startlingly expensive.
The problem with housing and food increasing in price is because they are requirements to live. Common folk are choking now.
The core of the problem that Blazin has outlined, is that no one is putting the brakes on Uncle Sam printing money. Very few people in this country can outinvest and outearn this level of inflation....and those that can are essentially eternally wealthy anyway.
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tugofpeace
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There are definitely certain pockets of the country where you will see bidding wars and people paying well over ask. I would imagine places like California and NY see most of that, but Texas has also gone up considerably.
My view is that a lot of the units being bought up are by investors, and at some point the rents that they would have to charge in order to be cashflow positive are higher, much higher, than wage growth allows. This is why housing would likely stabilize in most places.
I do see your last point which I bolded though, and that's where I'm a bit disconnected; for me, I was mortified at the thought of paying nearly $2800/month in rent in NYC, but now I look at $3500/month as high, but entirely reasonable because I was a diligent saver and investor. Most people are likely not in that position. So I agree, it's a problem.
I'm not savvy regarding the entire country's real estate market, but I thought things had mostly stabilized by now. With all the recent job cuts, the tech bloodbath, etc, I figured inflation was coming down to some extent which softens the real estate market, but then we have people in the government still printing money, like that recent trillion dollar budget for military spending (although that may be over many years, it's still a lot).
Lambourne
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They can't really do the foreign dollar thing because if the value of foreign held bonds drop sharply, bond rates shoot up and that means the US can't finance its debt anymore. Not paying debtors what they're owed isn't a way to avoid bankrupcy, it hastens you towards it because it cuts you off from new loans.
The stablecoin thing is just another way to keep propping up the market for treasury bonds. The idea is that people globally start using the stablecoin to trade amongst themselves, which keeps up demand for the assets that back it. Right now the US wants to make sure that if there is a globally held stablecoin, it is one denominated in dollars. It's not really about quick international payments, the existing banking system can do all that already.
From article below:
A strategic theme in the TBAC (US Treasury Bureau Advisement Committee) discussion was how stablecoins can reinforce U.S.‑dollar hegemony and demand for U.S. government debt. The White House has explicitly prioritized the growth of dollar stablecoins outside U.S. borders as a national economic strategy. By expanding global access to dollar liquidity, USD stablecoins increase foreign demand for dollar assets — in particular, the reserve assets backing those coins (mostly U.S. Treasuries). Approximately $120 billion of stablecoin reserves are currently invested in short‑dated U.S. Treasuries. As usage grows, this figure is poised to balloon.
David Sacks, the White House’s crypto advisor, was quoted as saying the goal is to increase demand for Treasuries through wider stablecoin adoption. In short, dollar stablecoins are seen as a tool to bolster USD supremacy in the digital era, embedding the dollar in global crypto commerce and funnelling worldwide liquidity into U.S. debt.
Stablecoins & T-Bills: A $900 Billion Demand Shock
For the first time, the U.S.
insights4vc.substack.com
Another source for the David Sacks quote if you don't trust Substack articles
Rangoth
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And thus one of the great strengths and weaknesses of BTC. the government will never be on board because they cannot just print more BTC to cover their shit budget habits, but also a reason people love it, it or something like it may be the only way to stop the current nonsense. If the government cannot simply make money it forces almost all bullshit spending to stop. Obviously the US would never allow this so we’ll end up with something like the above…the worst all of all worlds. A “stablecoin” that is basically a digital dollar the government can print at will, only now each dollar is digitally tracked for all time and they can shut off any wallet and see every penny you spend.….what could go wrong?
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Furry
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Ah yes Arkk. That one tag I have in my stocks app to remind me that some people out there are worse at investing than me.
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