Investing General Discussion

Blazin

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Doesn’t that just lean even harder into Blazin’s “money printer go brrrr, stocks go vroom vroom, but purchasing power take da boom boom” theory?
Which is why rates climbed. Day to Day and week to week movements don't mean much however, if the market has any concern of economic slow down yields will drop in the short term even in the face of large deficits.
 
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Rangoth

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Some interesting numbers released. Most are near estimate/consensus. Jobless stuff a bit higher than expected but not in a crazy way.

The one that caught me off-guard was the corporate profits were way down from the forecast. There are probably thousands of factors with a metric like this and very company dependent but it may indicate that the tariff increases are not simply passed on to the customer as feared. This may be a bullish indicator if corporations are still making money even with tariff's in place.

Consumer spending is down too, not shockingly as the average person continues to deal with the lingering effects inflation, debt, etc. Still up the pre-market but the MA's are beginning to converge from a downward slope. Today should be fun. Not sure if it will be a chop or strong move day.

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B_Mizzle

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Up again in the afterhours all over. This thread has been so wonderful to learn from. Markets do market things. I stopped trying to pick winners and losers. I either flat out gamble or play technical charts.

Any recommendation to learn technicals for free? I've got some more free time these days and a decent little portfolio, but I'd like to get into more short term trading.
 

Tmac

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Any recommendation to learn technicals for free? I've got some more free time these days and a decent little portfolio, but I'd like to get into more short term trading.

Start watching Simple Moving Averages in your charts: 20 day, 50 day, 100 day, 200 day.

Read up on them at investopedia. After a couple of years of watching them it becomes obvious where the stock will bounce, hit a wall, or fly on to new heights.
 
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Rangoth

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As Tmac said above, investopedia is awesome if you like reading style learning with examples. They leave out all of "this is a good sign to buy" and just stick to facts with some minor references to potential implications. They also have pages on everything you can think of down to the smallest level and most are short and simple reads.

I don't watch much youtube/online videos on the topic so I am not sure where to send you. 90% of the videos are people telling you *what to do*, not what things are or what they mean. I also don't have much patience for talking heads, almost regardless of the topic.

The thing with technical indicators is a tricky bag so which to use depends on how long you expect your trade(minutes vs. weeks for instance) to last. They are great in the sense that they do not lie, but ultimately they are just indicators.

Examples(you can go look up terms):

Day trade of buying some stock hoping to make a small gain. All of the MA's(moving averages, this is a day trade so *MINUTE* moving averages) are beautifully stacked and progressing upward at decent angles. 15 above 30, 30 above 50, 50 above 100, 100 above 200!

The BB(bollingerbands) are also moving upward, the channel is moderately narrow, and the lower band is *above* the 100 MA. This tells me that I may likely get continued upward movement. Now could the stock instantly rip through all of those and drop 50$ in less than 5 minutes? Of course, especially in today's tweet world market, but it is moderately unlikely. All of the above indicators may start to shift downward slowly though, and that may be a sign that I was wrong and I should exit the trade.

I also use RSI/MACD/Volume. Look those up, generally speaking they indicate buying or selling momentum and the speed at which those take place. So a massive selloff may indicate a temporary short term increase because it's just more than the market can absorb and someone will want to buy at the lower level, providing a pullback(maybe). Of course if some news events corresponds to it, its possible its down for good. Volume numbers help show you interest, huge drops or gains with low volume may indicate weaker momentum or lack of interest at the current price.

All of the above on a stock I plan to own for 6 months are useless, things eb and flow within a day timeframe, but I may want to use those same indicators over a daily level or weekly.

Things to note:
  • meme stocks(TSLA/GME/etc) don't follow any rules, they swing wildly and quickly in any direction for any reason. Things can literally shift in minutes. Doesn't mean the above cannot work, just know that they behave far more erratically
  • I use the above to snipe little gains on the SPY each day and has been very successful. This works because SPY tends to move in more regular patterns, the shifts while occasionally huge are generally more predictable
  • The reason bullet 2 works is because of stop losses/exits. They are my best friend and worst enemy on my little quick day trades. What I mean is if my prediction is wrong I get out fast, losing very little but if I was right, the little tiny ups and downs cause me to exit sooner(still with a gain) when I could have rode it out all day for instance for another 5%. At some point I accepted this fact of life because it is very difficult to determine if the little ups and downs are noise or a sign things are shifting. Taking 2% in guaranteed profit is better than hoping for 7% and sometimes getting it and sometimes not
  • None of this matters during an earnings call

It took me a long time to get into the swing of things and generally I would discourage people from getting in with unknowns since this is real money and losing it can cause some terrible heartache. However I also don't want to completely discourage new traders from entering, like anything in life we all have to learn.

My recommend would be to start by:

  • Avoiding options completely. They are insanely complex and so many people get burned by them *even when they pick the right stock and direction*
  • Start by looking at SPY charts and trying to predict when you think it will start to increase. Buy 1-5 shares and then watch the charts and try to predict when to sell. The absolute worst case here is that you bag hold some SPY shares for a bit. It will always catch back up to your buy-in over a long enough timeframe. But see if you can buy it as x and sell it at X+2$ or something reliably over the course of a few weeks

The above will not be very profitable and it may seem silly, but just spending time looking at charts and how things move will slowly give you a bit more experience.
 
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tugofpeace

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Holy moly, I have SPX calls expiring tomorrow that might print. This move on SPY is nuts, hope it holds through premarket

Very surprising. I bought 0DTE SPX calls yesterday for today, $78 premium, $6035 strike.

Those calls were worth about $750 each at their peak sometime in the evening yesterday.

By 1AM or so, they dropped to $375 each, and this was before SPX moved down.

By open, they were worth $37, and this is obvious due to SPX sharply dropping.

On top of that, Thinkorswim was down for a couple hours at night, which I lost sleep over .

So three lessons learned:

1) Leave Schwab for IBKR
2) IBKR allows 24/7 trading on SPX contracts which means I could've closed at night
3) Theta decay is FAST on overnight 0DTE contracts
 

Blazin

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if you bought them yesterday for today you didn't buy 0dte you bought 1dte

Spreads are horrible on SPX options dealers going to eat you. Either use SPY or if you want more timeframes to trade then trade E mini or micro ES contracts which gives you leverage without all the bullshit. You could make the same trade with $500 in capital less if you use micro
 
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tugofpeace

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if you bought them yesterday for today you didn't buy 0dte you bought 1dte

Ah yes, was thinking 0DTE because I bought them near market close yesterday.
Spreads are horrible on SPX options dealers going to eat you. Either use SPY or if you want more timeframes to trade then trade E mini or micro ES contracts which gives you leverage without all the bullshit. You could make the same trade with $500 in capital less if you use micro

I'm not familiar with E mini or micro ES contracts. I'll start googling..

Do you recommend IBKR though? Or any other brokerage? I was always an Ameritrade customer until Schwab took them over.
 

Blazin

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Ah yes, was thinking 0DTE because I bought them near market close yesterday.


I'm not familiar with E mini or micro ES contracts. I'll start googling..

Do you recommend IBKR though? Or any other brokerage? I was always an Ameritrade customer until Schwab took them over.
IBKR /Ninjatrader

If you want an account just for futures Ninja is fine and has very low capital requirements.
 
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Rangoth

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It was also pretty balls 6035$ strike for 1 day away when our close was what....5900ish? You were counting on either a god move over night or the next day and it looks like you didn't have a good exit strategy. Being up 10x is pretty awesome and no where in the rise did you think bail?

Most platforms allow certain options to be traded in after hours. Having thinkorswim go down sucks, sorry for your loss there, but again going back to 0-1DTE you should have almost set stop losses on either side right with the trade. Even fidelity allows for early/after hours SPX options trading.

Not trying to rag on you by the way, sorry you got burned but at least it wasn't a ton of money.
 
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tugofpeace

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It was also pretty balls 6035$ strike for 1 day away when our close was what....5900ish? You were counting on either a god move over night or the next day and it looks like you didn't have a good exit strategy. Being up 10x is pretty awesome and no where in the rise did you think bail?

Most platforms allow certain options to be traded in after hours. Having thinkorswim go down sucks, sorry for your loss there, but again going back to 0-1DTE you should have almost set stop losses on either side right with the trade. Even fidelity allows for early/after hours SPX options trading.

Not trying to rag on you by the way, sorry you got burned but at least it wasn't a ton of money.

I'm not upset about the loss, it was just two contracts, so $150 or so. I'm just surprised the decay was that fast. I was banking on market rising due to NVDA earnings, but was not expecting the tariff suspension to do what it did.

I think by 10PM I was seeing $1500 or so in profit, by 2AM that whittled down to $550 or so, despite SPX staying flat. Didn't expect that. I thought theta decay would only be that quick closer toward market close. I thought maybe since the underlying on Thinknorswim doesn't move after hours, the options pricing was off; I use option profit calculator and it was giving higher profit numbers.
 
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Rangoth

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You should be able to after/early hours trade on any platform. You may need to apply though. Fidelity for instance makes you specifically ask for it. That could have saved you.

SPX are one of the few options you can trade outside normal hours
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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I'm not upset about the loss, it was just two contracts, so $150 or so. I'm just surprised the decay was that fast. I was banking on market rising due to NVDA earnings, but was not expecting the tariff suspension to do what it did.

I think by 10PM I was seeing $1500 or so in profit, by 2AM that whittled down to $550 or so, despite SPX staying flat. Didn't expect that. I thought theta decay would only be that quick closer toward market close. I thought maybe since the underlying on Thinknorswim doesn't move after hours, the options pricing was off; I use option profit calculator and it was giving higher profit numbers.
Decay increases as you get closer to expiry. 0DTE you can literally watch the decay eat your profits in real time.
 

tugofpeace

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Decay increases as you get closer to expiry. 0DTE you can literally watch the decay eat your profits in real time.

Yea, I've always been aware of how theta decay ramps up towards expiry, but I did not expect my contract value to basically go down 66% within a matter of hours overnight for 1DTE. News to me, anyways.

It would be cool if a site like optionsprofitcalculator showed the contract value over time during the day.