Investing General Discussion

Furry · 2025-10-22T12:01:25-0400

Rangoth said:
This is the piece I have a hard time wrapping my head around as said above. I worked my whole life to hit a goal and now I'm not even sure if i am really there.

Honestly, I think our trajectory is more in line with greece. At some point the banks are gonna raise the middle fingers and start downgrading US debt, and the US will have two paths. Painful austerity or financial collapse. The first is more likely. Everyone will get the squeeze for a while and things will start to slowly turn around.

In either situation, there's probably a path to maintaining wealth you've built if you play your cards right, especially since I think it'll be a relatively slow process.

Sanrith Descartes · 2025-10-22T12:02:00-0400

Following up on something

Blazin said a few days ago. Look at the divergence between MSTR and BTC over the last 3 months or so.

Rangoth · 2025-10-22T12:13:13-0400

Yea, MSTR is way down and mNAV is the lowest it's been a while. I've been watching it to see when the 15m(minute) and then slowly 30m/1d MA's start to cross as I think it would be a good time to get back in since MSTR tends to move quick, but it just keeps dropping.

They keep issuing tons of preferred and other notes to buy more bitcoin so it seems like everyone left MSTR for better pastures. I would 100% go in below an mNAV of 1, but we've got a ways to go before that.

Sanrith Descartes · 2025-10-22T12:21:44-0400

Rangoth said:
Yea, MSTR is way down and mNAV is the lowest it's been a while. I've been watching it to see when the 15m(minute) and then slowly 30m/1d MA's start to cross as I think it would be a good time to get back in since MSTR tends to move quick, but it just keeps dropping.

They keep issuing tons of preferred and other notes to buy more bitcoin so it seems like everyone left MSTR for better pastures. I would 100% go in below an mNAV of 1, but we've got a ways to go before that.

They are debasing their stock as fast as the US is debasing the dollar.

Sanrith Descartes · 2025-10-22T12:28:14-0400

Rangoth said:
Yea, MSTR is way down and mNAV is the lowest it's been a while. I've been watching it to see when the 15m(minute) and then slowly 30m/1d MA's start to cross as I think it would be a good time to get back in since MSTR tends to move quick, but it just keeps dropping.

They keep issuing tons of preferred and other notes to buy more bitcoin so it seems like everyone left MSTR for better pastures. I would 100% go in below an mNAV of 1, but we've got a ways to go before that.

Grok's take:

Understanding the Divergence Between MSTR Stock and Bitcoin PricesMicroStrategy (now rebranded as Strategy in February 2025) has long been viewed as a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin exposure due to its aggressive accumulation strategy, holding approximately 640,031 BTC as of late September 2025. Historically, MSTR stock has traded at a premium to its Bitcoin net asset value (NAV)—often 2x or higher—amplifying BTC's gains through debt and equity raises. However, over the last four months (June 22 to October 22, 2025), this relationship has decoupled: Bitcoin has risen about 15-20% year-to-date (peaking at ~$124,000 in August before stabilizing around $110,000-$120,000), while MSTR stock has lagged with only ~13% YTD gains, trading at levels far below its November 2024 high of $543. This underperformance stems from a combination of structural, market, and sentiment-driven factors. Below, I'll break down the key reasons based on recent market analysis.1. Shareholder Dilution from Aggressive Capital Raises MicroStrategy's "42/42 plan"—aiming to raise $42 billion in equity and $42 billion in fixed-income securities from 2025-2027 to fund BTC purchases—has accelerated share issuance, eroding per-share value. In September 2025 alone, the company sold ~$425 million in MSTR shares, followed by another $100 million in stock and preferred shares, directly tied to BTC acquisitions.
This has increased the share float by ~46% since early 2025, diluting earnings per share (EPS) despite unrealized BTC gains of $14 billion.
Investors fear this "flywheel" effect—where dilution funds more BTC but compresses value—has become unsustainable, especially as BTC yield dropped to 26% in 2025 from 74% in 2024.

Result: MSTR's multiple-to-NAV (mNAV) ratio, a key metric of premium, plummeted from 3.63x in late 2024 to 1.21x by early October 2025—the lowest since February 2024. Buying BTC directly has outperformed MSTR ownership YTD.2. Policy Shift on Share Issuance, Triggering Investor Skepticism In August 2025, MicroStrategy reversed a Q2 commitment to issue shares only at premiums above 2.5x mNAV, now allowing issuances even at distressed valuations to fund BTC buys or debt service. This sparked an immediate 89.81% single-day stock plunge to ~$0.40 (adjusted for splits or errors in reporting, but indicative of panic), far outpacing BTC's 8.6% drop.
The move signals desperation amid tightening liquidity, raising doubts about management's discipline and long-term shareholder alignment.
Analysts note this "mNAV policy flip" exposes the stock to further compression during volatility, as the premium now reflects eroding confidence rather than "structural advantages" like credit amplification or institutional access.

3. Amplified Volatility and Leverage Risks MSTR's high leverage (~99.5% of its balance sheet in BTC, funded by $9+ billion in debt including zero-interest convertibles) magnifies downside. Its volatility is 18.44% vs. BTC's 12.60%, making it riskier in corrections.Post-August BTC peak, a 7% BTC dip led to a 14% MSTR drop (September 19-25, 2025), highlighting beta >1 exposure.
Short-selling pressure has intensified, with investigations into manipulative trades post-2024 election highs, decoupling MSTR from BTC's relative stability.
Correlation remains ~65% (Pearson/Spearman over 12 months), but weekly variability has spiked, with some periods showing near-zero or negative linkage—normal for leveraged plays but alarming amid BTC's consolidation.

4. Shifting Market Sentiment and Broader Crypto DynamicsETF Competition: Spot BTC ETFs (launched 2024) offer direct, low-fee exposure without dilution risks, siphoning flows from MSTR. Investors now prefer "pure" BTC plays, especially as MSTR trades at 232x forward sales despite Q2 2025 EPS of $32.60.
Insider Selling: Executives and board members have offloaded large share blocks in 2025, fueling perceptions of fading optimism.
Macro Factors: Despite pro-crypto policies (e.g., Trump's influence), equity market volatility and FASB 121 reforms (allowing mark-to-market BTC accounting from January 2025) haven't offset dilution fears. Gold's 30% YTD outperformance vs. BTC's 15% underscores a flight to "safer" hedges.

Quick Comparison: MSTR vs. BTC Performance (Approximate, June-October 2025)Metric
MSTR Stock
Bitcoin (USD)
Notes
YTD Return (as of Oct 2025)
+13%
+31%
MSTR lags despite holdings growth.
Peak Price (Aug 2025)
~$400
$124,277
MSTR below 2024 highs.
mNAV Ratio (Oct 2025)
1.21x
N/A
Weakest premium in 20 months.
Volatility (Annualized)
18.44%
12.60%
Leverage amplifies swings.

In summary, while MicroStrategy's BTC hoard (~$70-78 billion at current prices) remains a powerhouse, the stock's detachment reflects real risks from dilution, policy wobbles, and leverage in a maturing crypto market. Long-term bulls (like Michael Saylor) argue the premium will rebound with BTC to $150,000+, potentially pushing MSTR to $1,200-$1,600 at 2.5-3x mNAV. But near-term, direct BTC or ETFs may be safer. This isn't a "broken" strategy—just the painful mechanics of leverage catching up. If BTC stabilizes or rallies, expect reconvergence; otherwise, further pain.

Arden · 2025-10-22T13:06:31-0400

Flobee said:
<asset> / Gold is probably a good place to start with valuations moving forward. China is successfully repricing collateral from Treasuries to Gold. We'll have to see how it plays out over time but for now thats what is going on IMO. I can't easily access the chart, but here is a grainy screenshot of SPX/Gold over long time frame. The world is going to rebase from US treasuries to real assets. Gold initially, IMO BTC moving forward. Gold has overtaken Treasuries as the primary foreign reserve asset. Make of that what you will. Perhaps now isn't the -best- time to buy gold, but I suspect it will outperform everything but the absolutely top performing equities over the medium-long term.

I believe US, and probably the West generally is going to go all-in on digitizing capital and assets, for better or for worse, and that means BTC moves bigly because thats going to be their chosen outlet for printed $$$ as traditional foreign treasury buying essentially completely stops. They're going to offload as much as they can in short-term paper to foreign markets via Stablecoins. Thats the plan. Bondholders always get wiped out in these moves, SPX will at best track real inflation.

Overall I feel like the mid-curve meme is appropriate here. Both left and right side will say "Buy gold and Bitcoin" everyone in the middle is going to drive themselves insane valuing the world in a rapidly depreciating currency during a monetary regime change. 2c from the left side of the curve

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EDIT: Also probably not a bad idea to just buy what Trump's family is buying, and generally what this administration is saying they are going to prioritize (rare earth, copper, etc). We're living in a central command style government structure right now. No getting around it, US needs to shift back onshore and decouple with China, only way to do that is with Government printing money and directing it to the places its needed. Ride the wave

As Lyn Alden likes to say...

Blazin · 2025-10-22T13:52:30-0400

One way to consider your wealth is housing. We all are pretty familiar with housing. So you could say in 2017 I could buy (3) 4 bedroom houses in my community. In 2025 I could buy (2) 4 bedroom houses . Think of your wealth in relation to the things you spend money on, this is more helpful than using bitcoin or gold which you don't use or have good reference for. Or just total your cost of living and Divide your net worth by that number.