Investing General Discussion

Lambourne said:

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According to Bessent, tariffs may bring in 300B this year, even ignoring secondary effects that's little more than a slight headwind for the train rolling downhill.

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Interesting the poster didn't mention BTC. I guess he was limiting his life rafts to actual physical assets: gold, silver, property, etc., but i wonder why? Unless he thinks we are going to undergo a societal collapse and toally lose the ability to power computers, BTC seems as good or better a hedge than those things he mentioned.

Lambourne said:

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According to Bessent, tariffs may bring in 300B this year, even ignoring secondary effects that's little more than a slight headwind for the train rolling downhill.

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I mean, yes it's absolutely concerning, but we can't really do anything about it.

If the debt bomb really comes, having some gold won't do shit for you anyway. At that point we're looking at global economic meltdown and you can't eat your gold. Good luck trading for anything with your fucking gold doubloons.

Worth noting on the rate of debt growth, the Fed just finished refilling the TGA, so that rate isn't likely to continue at current pace. Assuming of course they are actually done for now. Its still accelerating of course, but not quite as hair on fire as suggested in that post. Things are both worse than people realize and not nearly as bad as they think haha.



RE: Gold, this isn't the early 20th century in regards to how people view/trust the Government. I am front of line for protecting yourself against 6102 type events, but its not likely going to look like that for Gold at least. The reason Gold is useful is because it maintains stable value over time vs currency debasement. Go look at physical assets based in gold vs in dollars, its fairly stable. You don't make money with gold, you preserve it. The idea that the only options here are everything is fine and stays the same, or Mad-Max style anarchy and societal collapse just demonstrates a lack of historical context.

Hyperinflation/Mad Max definitely isn't guaranteed. It can be staved off by different economic policy, like a Volcker shock on steroids but the political will for that is not there currently. It may be there 5 years from now, who knows.

You can definitely do some things to safeguard wealth. Plenty of historical examples. Real estate, stocks, (German stock market went vertical in the 1920s) commodities, foreign holdings. It's a lot harder to confiscate real estate or shares of BigBoxCorp than it is gold, which is far more liquid internationally.

Speaking of a hedge, what is the best vehicle outside of actual BTC to go with in the standard market? Any thoughts? I've been reviewing the charts of IBIT/FTBC and BTC-USD over the last 1-2 years(the funds dont have full BTC history) and they seem to track within 1%.

It's really hard to tell if they are diverging but both of those funds claim to be backed by actual BTC.

I really don't want this to be a debate on holding actual BTC or using a market vehicle. I have a bit of both, just literally curious if anyone has knowledge outside of what I can google up on those or other funds that claim to be a BTC-USD match backed by the real thing.

Rangoth said:

Speaking of a hedge, what is the best vehicle outside of actual BTC to go with in the standard market? Any thoughts? I've been reviewing the charts of IBIT/FTBC and BTC-USD over the last 1-2 years(the funds dont have full BTC history) and they seem to track within 1%.

It's really hard to tell if they are diverging but both of those funds claim to be backed by actual BTC.

I really don't want this to be a debate on holding actual BTC or using a market vehicle. I have a bit of both, just literally curious if anyone has knowledge outside of what I can google up on those or other funds that claim to be a BTC-USD match backed by the real thing.

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IBIT/FBTC are tracking Bitcoin the same way GLD tracks Gold. About as reliable as you're going to get in traditional markets for tracking the price. The main differences between IBIT and FBTC in my mind is 2 things. Options volume (favors IBIT by a lot) and custody. Fidelity custodies their own BTC, Blackrock and basically everyone else custodies with Coinbase. This IMO makes FBTC superior but in 99% of circumstances that doesn't factor in to the decision.

A divergence between spot and these funds is certainly possible, but I suspect if that ever happens we're years, and many wild headlines and big price moves, away from that.

Flobee said:

IBIT/FBTC are tracking Bitcoin the same way GLD tracks Gold. About as reliable as you're going to get in traditional markets for tracking the price. The main differences between IBIT and FBTC in my mind is 2 things. Options volume (favors IBIT by a lot) and custody. Fidelity custodies their own BTC, Blackrock and basically everyone else custodies with Coinbase. This IMO makes FBTC superior but in 99% of circumstances that doesn't factor in to the decision.

A divergence between spot and these funds is certainly possible, but I suspect if that ever happens we're years, and many wild headlines and big price moves, away from that.

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FWIW, I actually think self custody is a pretty big deal and that's one reason I chose fbtc.

I wasn't aware of where the custody was for each. I suppose all the major plays using Coinbase for custody actually lends to a potential long term play on COIN if that seems to be the US corporate holding platform of choice. Thanks!