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Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Flobee
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Thought this may be relevant for some of you who have a little time to hear the highlights on the US National Security Strategy document released by the administration this week. Specifically about how it will effect the markets. Bhatia is a Bitcoin guy, but has a history as a trader on a bond desk so he speaks your language and this video isn't about Bitcoin. Listening to him is about as entertaining as watching paint dry but he knows his stuff and he's thorough. This document is pretty incredible so its worth looking into regardless of whether you watch this or not.
Arden
Vyemm Raider
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Probably missing something, but I'm not sure there is any point to paying much attention to 2026 rate cut forecasts with Trump v. Slaughter and Trump v. Cook in the mix (among the many, many other uncertainties).
Flobee
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Not sure what the picard is for, they cut 25 BP and they're buying back 40b in Treasuries
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Jysin
Bronze Baronet of the Realm
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Not a Picard for you, it was my reaction to them resuming buying short dated treasuries.
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Blazin
have you looked at IWM lately? It seems to be outpacing the other indexes when it comes to rate of increase lately, say the last couple of months or so. Do you think this is an indicator that more money is flowing towards main street rather than silicon valley and venture capital and what-not? Maybe this is small business looking at better profitability due to AI? I think it might be early for that, but it could be a factor...Usual caveats apply; it's early, it's not THAT much of an 'outpacing' impulse, etc etc.
Arden
Vyemm Raider
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Man rates drop and QE starts up and all we get is a 0.7% bump?
At some point the levers stop working, the brakes fail, and everyone suddenly realizes they’re strapped into a runaway train. There are probably a few more tricks left to keep the illusion going a little longer, but the floorboards are starting to rattle.
Tmac
Adventurer
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I'm still sitting on a pile of cash. Where to throw my mostly singed MSTR shmeckles? I got back out of IBIT after a small gain.
Sheriff Cad
scientia potentia est
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Falstaff
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Sanrith Descartes
missing on Fed rate day? Did his fractional billionaire brother in law kidnap him?
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Blazin
Creative Title
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If IBIT doesn't close this week strong, I'm going to start trading around the idea we are in an extended bear market and much lower lows are a possibility. I'm not making predictions, just trying to recognize the kind of tape we are in and adjust decision making in that framework because that is what has the highest probability of success/avoiding capital loss.
A strong bounce and resumption of trend has grown to be unlikely, the price behavior does not reflect countertrend characteristics. There are declines that are opportunities they are just short term flashes counter to the stronger trend, the fuel that sends you higher. We made a stand where you'd expect, it is has now wasted that energy and hasn't been able to gain momentum, the next step in that scenario is to flush to a new low and try again.
The chart is going to take months now to fix and it becomes a safer bet to buy bullish momentum rather than fish for a bottom. We haven't had a close above the 200d since Nov 3 and it's been a real pussy about it, SPY would have at least returned to the scene of the crime before rolling over like a bitch.
A strong bounce and resumption of trend has grown to be unlikely, the price behavior does not reflect countertrend characteristics. There are declines that are opportunities they are just short term flashes counter to the stronger trend, the fuel that sends you higher. We made a stand where you'd expect, it is has now wasted that energy and hasn't been able to gain momentum, the next step in that scenario is to flush to a new low and try again.
The chart is going to take months now to fix and it becomes a safer bet to buy bullish momentum rather than fish for a bottom. We haven't had a close above the 200d since Nov 3 and it's been a real pussy about it, SPY would have at least returned to the scene of the crime before rolling over like a bitch.
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