Investing General Discussion

Tredge

Tredge

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The model I built suggests we are still in neutral risk territory, down from topping signals back in October.
This suggests there is still room yet for further market growth this year. Tom lee (among others) seems to agree and I think his reasoning makes sense.

While I haven't had the model for even a year yet, it called the exact bottom April 8th and the latest top in October. I will continue to trust it - otherwise why have it?

Just my 2 cents. I'm not really interested in timing the market so much as catching bottoms which are easier to predict than tops.
 
Blazin

Blazin

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If you are responding to me, BTC via IBIT is in a very different position than the market at large.

Night and day difference between SPY chart and IBIT right now, ones bullish as fuck showing little to no cracks the other is a cluster fuck of weakness.
 
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Pharazon2

Trakanon Raider
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Tredge said:
The model I built suggests we are still in neutral risk territory, down from topping signals back in October.
This suggests there is still room yet for further market growth this year. Tom lee (among others) seems to agree and I think his reasoning makes sense.
Click to expand...

Tom Lee was also relentlessly calling for $200k+ Bitcoin by end of year. He finally had to change his tune to... "I think it can make it back above $100k by end of year..."
 
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Gravel

Gravel

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Blazin said:
If IBIT doesn't close this week strong, I'm going to start trading around the idea we are in an extended bear market and much lower lows are a possibility. I'm not making predictions, just trying to recognize the kind of tape we are in and adjust decision making in that framework because that is what has the highest probability of success/avoiding capital loss.

A strong bounce and resumption of trend has grown to be unlikely, the price behavior does not reflect countertrend characteristics. There are declines that are opportunities they are just short term flashes counter to the stronger trend, the fuel that sends you higher. We made a stand where you'd expect, it is has now wasted that energy and hasn't been able to gain momentum, the next step in that scenario is to flush to a new low and try again.

The chart is going to take months now to fix and it becomes a safer bet to buy bullish momentum rather than fish for a bottom. We haven't had a close above the 200d since Nov 3 and it's been a real pussy about it, SPY would have at least returned to the scene of the crime before rolling over like a bitch.
Click to expand...
This is where my comment about the crypto thread comes in.

You're talking about IBIT and an extended bear market, and I get confused what we're talking about. But then you also mention the SPY, so now I think you're talking about equities markets and not crypto? So are you saying a bear for crypto? A bear for everything? What the fuck is going on?
 
Blazin

Blazin

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Gravel said:
This is where my comment about the crypto thread comes in.

You're talking about IBIT and an extended bear market, and I get confused what we're talking about. But then you also mention the SPY, so now I think you're talking about equities markets and not crypto? So are you saying a bear for crypto? A bear for everything? What the fuck is going on?
Click to expand...
Just saying IBIT is acting weaker than we normally see from SPY in a similar set up, meaning SPY doesn't go down ez making multiple rally attempts before losing trend. I don't know anything about crypto in general I don't follow it. BTC is on the cusp of a prolonged bear if it doesn't get its shit together pronto.

No sign whatsoever of a bear for SPY we are tagging highs.



I just bought 1000 shares of IBIT @ 51 looking for some gap close.
 
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