Jysin
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10:26 (US) Trump Administration to reportedly begin seizing pay of defaulted student loan borrowers in Jan - press - Source TradeTheNews.com
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Investing General Discussion
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Furry
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Blazin
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Just like our own contest, 12 month outlooks are very strongly driven by current mood. If we were even in a mild 5-7% pullback this month you would see a notable change in those numbers.
Wall street outlooks are 8-12% every year, all the time, forever and ever, unless we are in a correction when they are created.
Earnings are doing well and they are the real question, based on forward looking estimates the market is now cheaper than it was at this time last year. There is always something to worry about, the move in silver, copper and gold are certainly concerning.
I think treasury will have to occasionally pretend it cares about shoring up the dollar, when it does so we will be weak for a bit until we go back to not giving a shit about it. It's just an attempt at controlling the decline. But are they controlling it? They watch the dollar index which measures the dollar against other major currencies, how about the dollar against physical commodities?
This is the perfect storm bitcoin was meant to shine, not only not participating it's in a down trend.
So big questions for me for 2026 is OIL and BTC do they reverse and play catch up? The consumer continues to do well, I should go back in the last 18 months and find all the linked posts about how troubled the consumer is, even better the calls for a housing crash while home owners are at record levels of untapped equity.
There is a 1996 door in front of us, do we step through it? I'm going to continue to repeat, I hope we don't. It will be an epic ride for sure but given our average age here let's hope it's a ride we delay a little longer for own sakes.
Wall street outlooks are 8-12% every year, all the time, forever and ever, unless we are in a correction when they are created.
Earnings are doing well and they are the real question, based on forward looking estimates the market is now cheaper than it was at this time last year. There is always something to worry about, the move in silver, copper and gold are certainly concerning.
I think treasury will have to occasionally pretend it cares about shoring up the dollar, when it does so we will be weak for a bit until we go back to not giving a shit about it. It's just an attempt at controlling the decline. But are they controlling it? They watch the dollar index which measures the dollar against other major currencies, how about the dollar against physical commodities?
This is the perfect storm bitcoin was meant to shine, not only not participating it's in a down trend.
So big questions for me for 2026 is OIL and BTC do they reverse and play catch up? The consumer continues to do well, I should go back in the last 18 months and find all the linked posts about how troubled the consumer is, even better the calls for a housing crash while home owners are at record levels of untapped equity.
There is a 1996 door in front of us, do we step through it? I'm going to continue to repeat, I hope we don't. It will be an epic ride for sure but given our average age here let's hope it's a ride we delay a little longer for own sakes.
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Blazin
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The end to a macro secular cycle , historically after a significant steepening in asset prices .
over the years I’ve postulated this would occur in early to mid 2030s based on demographics. Maybe it happens some years earlier. 20-30% annual returns.
it’s the stage of a bull market that all will be given back and market could go a decade or more without a new high when it’s over
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Flobee
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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1996 lined up with a major jump in technological efficiency as well (Internet and computing more generally) and technology is an incredibly deflationary force in the sense that it reduces the cost of production. Its not really unreasonable to assume we see, and are already seeing, something similar with AI/Robotics. These technologies are going to be incredibly deflationary.
Just another factor that kind of agrees with what you're saying.
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Blazin
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As it matures it will become harder to define what is an "AI" trade. New technologies work their way into the economy because they are useful and produce results all companies will be the "AI trade" or they will cease to exist.
The bubble often forms because early it's difficult to foresee the winners and the losers as adoption increases. Capital is allocated quickly, some of it very poorly. The subsequent corrective period will hurt those who fail to harness the new tech efficiently and the new leaders will emerge. Bear markets are a period of time to punish miss allocation of capital. Our first attempts to use/benefit from a new tech are often misguided but the free markets will hone and chisel away at the best results.
We will likely look back at this period now and some of it will just seem silly in the context of where we end up.
We can all see the big numbers talked about every day in relation to current and coming capital projects, some of them are going to be so stupid in hindsight, the AOL Time Warner deal for a new generation.
The bubble often forms because early it's difficult to foresee the winners and the losers as adoption increases. Capital is allocated quickly, some of it very poorly. The subsequent corrective period will hurt those who fail to harness the new tech efficiently and the new leaders will emerge. Bear markets are a period of time to punish miss allocation of capital. Our first attempts to use/benefit from a new tech are often misguided but the free markets will hone and chisel away at the best results.
We will likely look back at this period now and some of it will just seem silly in the context of where we end up.
We can all see the big numbers talked about every day in relation to current and coming capital projects, some of them are going to be so stupid in hindsight, the AOL Time Warner deal for a new generation.
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