Investing General Discussion

Sanrith Descartes

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Can you break down the pro's/cons of dividends a bit more? I know the basics that certain companies pay out dividends to a various degree to incentivize investors, but is the payout based on earnings, stock price, or some kind of combination of both?
First thing to correct. Investors are owners. They aren't being incentivized, its their money. the company's board (agents working for the owners) will choose to return a share of the profits to the company's owners through a vehicle called dividends. Another vehicle is called share-buybacks. Sticking with dividends, if you purchase stock in company X for 100$ a share and it pays 5$ a year in annual dividends, it is returning 5$ a share of the profits back directly to the owners/shareholders. This is usually paid quarterly. The standard metric for this is called the dividend yield. Annual dividend/the price you paid for the shares. in our example the div yield is 5%. So in the basic, you get a 5% return on your investment no matter what the stock price does. When the dividend is processed (not getting in the weeds with this on ex-div date, record date etc) the share price drops by the amount the dividend is declared. So technically if the share price never moves for a year, it would drop 1.25$ each of the div dates and at the end of 4 quarters you would have been paid 5$ per share and the share price would be 95$ (thus no paper gain). The reality is share prices do move. In the same example lets say the year ended with the share price at 105$ and you got 5$ paid out in dividends, your net return for the year would be 10% (5$ in share price appreciation and 5$ in dividends).

So evaluating if you want to buy a stock and projecting out annual returns, whether or not it pays a dividend factors into your expected returns. Dividends aren't normally "crazy high". But getting a rock solid company that pays a 3 or 4% dividend yield is a nice consideration. "Usually" some companies wont pay dividends and instead focus every dollar back into the company to grow it and thus the idea is that instead of dividends back you are compensated with a higher appreciation of the share price and make your return that way. For example AAPL current at its sky-high price only pays a 0.75% div yield. but its stock price is up close 100% since the crash.

edit: just to correct a company doesn't need to turn a profit to pay a dividend. It can lose money and still pay a dividend. In that case it tends to borrow the money to pay it. Don't ask. This is a rabbit hole you wont want to travel down. Suffice it to say, a good metric to look at is free cash flow to dividend payments. Does the company have enough cash to continue paying dividends without borrowing money.
 

Furry

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I think I'm up 15k the last two weeks. Pretty okay with that. I say I think because my biggest account is something LachiusTZ LachiusTZ is familiar with, the slow behemoth that is the TSP. Crazy how far things have come since my first investment of 31$ years and years ago and the 5 cents I made off it in my first two weeks.
 
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TJT

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I used the army tsp twice. You were guaranteed a 10% return on $10k over a deployment. So pretty much a free thousand bucks.

Most 19 year olds too dumb and broke to take advantage of it though.
 
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Hateyou

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Counterpoint: CVS is an absolute epic clusterfuck of a company internally, which might explain why it's shares never seem to go up.

All the giant insurance/health care/drug companies are. They’re all so massive and spread out into so many different things one hand doesn’t know what the other is doing. That doesn’t really have much to do with investing in those companies though. They’re so massive and their revenue is always pretty stable.
 

Furry

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I used the army tsp twice. You were guaranteed a 10% return on $10k over a deployment. So pretty much a free thousand bucks.

Most 19 year olds too dumb and broke to take advantage of it though.

TSP is very good, but not responsive. It's always surprising to me how few people took advantage of it. Luckily, they changed it so you have to opt out of it instead of opting in recently. A lot of people probably just didn't understand what it was. As far as the government is concerned, its one of the few things they did mostly right, probably by accident.
 

Big Phoenix

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TSP is very good, but not responsive. It's always surprising to me how few people took advantage of it.
I joined just as it was being rolled out and no one ever really explained to us what it was or why it was beneficial in basic so I never took advantage of it.
AMD reaches $100 billion market cap. Congrats Big Phoenix Big Phoenix
Definitely at the point where in asking myself if I should sell everyday now.
 
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Furry

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I joined just as it was being rolled out and no one ever really explained to us what it was or why it was beneficial in basic so I never took advantage of it.

Definitely at the point where in asking myself if I should sell everyday now.

It's definitely valued far ahead of where it is. I wouldn't be surprised to see more growth in the stock's price while we live in clown world though. I'd probably hold for now.

Also very good they made opt in the default choice. I've heard plenty of stories of people with 20+ years that spent most of them not saving anything, which is not smart. I know I didn't really even think an iota about retirement until about the age of 30. I under saved in a lot of regards, but at least I had enough saved and caught it early enough that it wasn't a total disaster. I've pretty much gone to the opposite end of the spectrum since then.

Feel bad for the people who go through the same epiphany at 50+.
 
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LachiusTZ

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To be honest I expect to work until I die.

From past experience I know six months of doing nothing but smoking weed, fucking, and playing games is my personal limit
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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We are in a different world when it comes to investing right now. Davey Day Trader is right in this respect. Investing the same way we did for 100 years isnt the answer. It has to go beyond valuations and fundamentals because there are so many investors who have no idea what those things are. Its FOMO or GTFO. The trick we can never forget is to ALWAYS be one of the first guys out the door, even if it means giving up some profits. I got out of NKLA at $40-ish so I left money on the table but I have no regrets. Never look at what you "lost" by taking profit. Look at what you made. This applies doubly so when a stock has gone parabolic on FOMO. You can't know when its going to peak, but you can guarantee it will reverse course at warp speed. I bought into NVDA on June 8th on a dip after a nice run up and figured I might get 5% or so by the end of the year. Its up almost 30% since I bought it 8 weeks ago. Ludicrous. Investing today is anything but dull.

I'm not telling you to sell AMD, just trying to add perspective. its not up there on fundamentals. Its a hip stock, it has a following and INTC opened the door for some marketshare acquisition by screwing the pooch. The question to be asked is will it revert to the mean at some point. Let your winners run, but also dont be afraid to say I made enough to be ahppy with the trade. Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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It's definitely valued far ahead of where it is. I wouldn't be surprised to see more growth in the stock's price while we live in clown world though. I'd probably hold for now.

Also very good they made opt in the default choice. I've heard plenty of stories of people with 20+ years that spent most of them not saving anything, which is not smart. I know I didn't really even think an iota about retirement until about the age of 30. I under saved in a lot of regards, but at least I had enough saved and caught it early enough that it wasn't a total disaster. I've pretty much gone to the opposite end of the spectrum since then.

Feel bad for the people who go through the same epiphany at 50+ or get divorced after 40.

ftfy
 

LachiusTZ

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LachiusTZ

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Sold my silver yesterday, then bought back maybe 10 cents cheaper?

It's up another dollar today.

At 29 I'll prolly sell half

Edit:. Hmm might bail... Bullion finally showing in stock. At 31/oz. Lol

Metals have less shit to look at, inventory, spot, premium. I prefer it over financials. Lol

Should I cut bait and collect the dollars... Tbh I dunno what I would do with them.

Closing on a house this month so maybe that?

But I don't really see the pressure coming off bullion / e currency until after the election at a minimum
 

Flobee

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I think store of value items will hold up so long as the Fed keeps pumping the market. I don't expect them to do so anytime soon as deflation is the boogeyman for the rich folks. Metals would seemingly be a safe bet for the immediate future, but who knows.
 

LachiusTZ

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I think store of value items will hold up so long as the Fed keeps pumping the market. I don't expect them to do so anytime soon as deflation is the boogeyman for the rich folks. Metals would seemingly be a safe bet for the immediate future, but who knows.

As long as we have chaos people are going to pump money into bullion (fuck it, calling Bitcoin and ethereum bullion from now on).

And it looks like the chaos is at a 3, and prolly going to a 7+
 
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Kuro

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So, starting a new job and will have a 401k and an HSA, both of which I haven't had the last six years. Says I can backfill both for 2020 up until April 2021. If I've got enough money from other sources to cover my living expenses for the next year or so, can I just bomb my entire paycheck into capping those out before the April deadline? Is that a good idea?
 

Sanrith Descartes

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So, starting a new job and will have a 401k and an HSA, both of which I haven't had the last six years. Says I can backfill both for 2020 up until April 2021. If I've got enough money from other sources to cover my living expenses for the next year or so, can I just bomb my entire paycheck into capping those out before the April deadline? Is that a good idea?
There are limits to the amount you can put into a 401k. see link.

.

HSAs are amazing. It sits forever and healthcare is the #1 cost for retired people. Max out that tax deferred amount if you can.
 
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