Investing General Discussion

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Pharazon2

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Jysin said:
The problem with SpaceX valuation and thesis is the fact they hitched their xAI to the name. I want to own SpaceX the rocket & telecom company, not the AI business at all.

It muddies the waters considerably, especially when trying to work out Revenues / Margins / CapEx. Like most AI, future earnings predictions and TAM are all pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking. No doubt AI as a technology will change lives, but picking winners is a difficult position to say the very least. Anthropic and OpenAI are trying to convince investors that frontier models will eventually pay for themselves (and the debt incurred for build-outs), but increasingly, the open models are far more compelling use from a cost basis, as well as the security standpoint vs sending your data off site to a frontier cloud model.

You've also got chatter about combining Tesla with the SpaceX / xAI name, which will further complicate things.

Personally, I think my money is better invested elsewhere.
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The obvious argument for a merged Tesla / SpaceX company is that you know you're getting a company that is going to push innovation in the right places, with some of the smartest people, solving some of the most important challenges before other companies do. Long term, probably a good investment even if its overvalued today, especially if you try to buy at the lows (TBD on whether we're seeing the start of a crash today but maybe a good time to add a little SPCX today...) with the major caveat being -

Does Elon survive the oncoming political onslaught? Without him, the companies don't command nearly the premium valuation they do today.
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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Pharazon2 said:
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Does Elon survive the oncoming political onslaught? Without him, the companies don't command nearly the premium valuation they do today.
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This also brings a morbid risk as well. All those Elon eggs in one basket.
If Musk ODs on ketamine / some psycho kills him or whatever, I think you've got a concentration risk of a massive dump in everything Elon.
 
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Pharazon2

Trakanon Raider
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Jysin said:
This also brings a morbid risk as well. All those Elon eggs in one basket.
If Musk ODs on ketamine / some psycho kills him or whatever, I think you've got a concentration risk of a massive dump in everything Elon.
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Definitely - I'd be more confident investing more in those two companies if it wasn't for that risk. No other CEO has anywhere close to the impact on valuation that he does.
 
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Borzak

Borzak

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Thing about being retired. I looked yesterday but haven't looked today at the market until now at lunch time.
 
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