Investing General Discussion

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Pharazon2

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Jysin said:
The problem with SpaceX valuation and thesis is the fact they hitched their xAI to the name. I want to own SpaceX the rocket & telecom company, not the AI business at all.

It muddies the waters considerably, especially when trying to work out Revenues / Margins / CapEx. Like most AI, future earnings predictions and TAM are all pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking. No doubt AI as a technology will change lives, but picking winners is a difficult position to say the very least. Anthropic and OpenAI are trying to convince investors that frontier models will eventually pay for themselves (and the debt incurred for build-outs), but increasingly, the open models are far more compelling use from a cost basis, as well as the security standpoint vs sending your data off site to a frontier cloud model.

You've also got chatter about combining Tesla with the SpaceX / xAI name, which will further complicate things.

Personally, I think my money is better invested elsewhere.
Click to expand...

The obvious argument for a merged Tesla / SpaceX company is that you know you're getting a company that is going to push innovation in the right places, with some of the smartest people, solving some of the most important challenges before other companies do. Long term, probably a good investment even if its overvalued today, especially if you try to buy at the lows (TBD on whether we're seeing the start of a crash today but maybe a good time to add a little SPCX today...) with the major caveat being -

Does Elon survive the oncoming political onslaught? Without him, the companies don't command nearly the premium valuation they do today.
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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Pharazon2 said:
...

Does Elon survive the oncoming political onslaught? Without him, the companies don't command nearly the premium valuation they do today.
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This also brings a morbid risk as well. All those Elon eggs in one basket.
If Musk ODs on ketamine / some psycho kills him or whatever, I think you've got a concentration risk of a massive dump in everything Elon.
 
P

Pharazon2

Trakanon Raider
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Jysin said:
This also brings a morbid risk as well. All those Elon eggs in one basket.
If Musk ODs on ketamine / some psycho kills him or whatever, I think you've got a concentration risk of a massive dump in everything Elon.
Click to expand...
Definitely - I'd be more confident investing more in those two companies if it wasn't for that risk. No other CEO has anywhere close to the impact on valuation that he does.
 
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Borzak

Borzak

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Thing about being retired. I looked yesterday but haven't looked today at the market until now at lunch time.
 
Rangoth

Rangoth

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Huge(relative) drop today! Just a reminder for those that may be sitting on cash and don't have immediate needs. This could be a great buying opportunity where see a 4% return in a few weeks if we are not at the start of a bigger downcycle/bear trend.

Keep in mind over the past 5 years our LONGEST stretch of down was a touch over a year, every other big drop corrected in 1-2 quarters or less, so if you are in it for the long haul this and the coming days may be a good jump in.

For reference we dropped all the way to the 200MA basically, a bit above it but for conversation sake we are at it. Of course it could keep nose diving, but again looking at a 5 year history we seem to always recover in a few quarters max. Dont get doom and gloom! Though today was an impressive drop.

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Tmac

Tmac

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Jysin Jysin where you deploying capital?

I'm think about putting $10k in my SEP and immediately transferring it to my ROTH.
 
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