Wingz
Being Poor Sucks.
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Investing General Discussion
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Sanrith Descartes
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Markets are basically flat ahead of the big guns reporting earnings tonight and that should be cause for concern. Everyone knows the MSFT/GOOG etc are going to crush earnings estimates. This feels like a whole lot of algos waiting to sell on the news.
Fogel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Someone did research on earnings this quarter and something on the order of 80%+ earnings were above estimates, which is why the SPY is still flirting with ATH's
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Hateyou
Not Great, Not Terrible
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Beats and falls 3%.
I’ll never understand earnings and market reactions. Sometimes it beats and goes up, sometimes not. Sometimes it misses and drops, sometimes not.
Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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It was at a 52-high today. My assumption is people were holding it to profit take on earnings no matter how good it was.
Blazin
Creative Title
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Is really that complicated? The estimates are not the markets estimate for earnings, they are analyst estimates. If a stock drops after a beat that simply means they beat analyst estimates and fell short of the market's estimate.
The market as a whole is much better at sniffing out good results than individual analyst. The stock had just ran up from $230 to $260 in a short time frame. It is at the high end of it's valuation history. THe net aggregate opinion of all market participants was for a very strong result.
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Hateyou
Not Great, Not Terrible
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I just don’t get the point of the analysts I guess. Every earnings season the market reaction is detached from the analysts estimates. The analysts seem pointless to me.
Blazin
Creative Title
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Sounds like you have it figured out. Analyst are almost always behind the curve. A stock will run up 30% then they upgrade it's price target to catch up. Has banner year switch your stance to buy from market neutral. There aren't even really that many analyst maybe a few thousand watching 50T in equities. They are just part of the larger financial media ecosphere they provide color , data and charts and a starting point for financial articles and news casting.
Research is their main purpose. I think some of their reports on internal workings is their value. Some are great at the research, it's the conclusion part of their research that is best ignored. Price is truth, the price action which reflect the net aggregate opinion of all market participants is what you follow to know how the market feels about that data that is collected.
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Blazin
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All through last year when people didn't understand why the market just kept roaring higher, now see the earnings and go "ooooohh now I get it, lets buy" Kind of funny to watch as some people just can't help themselves but to be late to the party and in our financial markets it' s a great way to get your ass handed to you over and over.
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Kiroy
Marine Biologist
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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So I am no Wallstreet fund manager or anything but.... why the fuck do you sell NVDA, FB, SQ etc a week or two AFTER they hit 52-highs and have turned back south 5%+ so you can keep dollar cost averaging on COIN?
Blazin
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If you actually want the answer she has discussed why in detail on numerous interviews
Sanrith Descartes
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