Investing General Discussion

Bears just have no energy to get things going. We bounced strongly following last weeks tax scare. Volumes continue to be low. Nobody is interested in selling. There are a lot of dark pool prints going on as of late. We know wall street firms have become more cautious but if the bears don't get something going soon the market is likely to make another leg up and move towards 4300. I still believe we are in the give back stage of the rally but I'm leaning towards us moving to the upside of my target range as the likely next move.

LachiusTZ said:

What would energy do?

I dunno what they could do besides sell and write articles about the end is nigh

Click to expand...

Bears with conviction can go short, which means they are selling stock. They aren't doing that. THey are bitching about wanting a pullback but the big boys are not putting the cash on the line to sell it down. We need some combination of strong profit taking and short selling to create a notable correction. I mentioned a week or two ago that a pullback in the middle of strong earnings would be unlikely, but that the market is in an overextended position. We are pretty much running sideways since the 4/16 with very little downside probing, so that is why things are tilting towards another leg up.

Gravel said:

This is what I'm always saying. Where will the money go? Everything else is dog shit. So the equities market is the only choice.

Exacerbating it is that everyone sees the inflation we've got going on, so selling and holding cash is probably the worst thing to do. I think real estate is the only other sector worth a shit (I guess crypto too), and everyone thinks we're in a massive bubble that will pop any day now.

Click to expand...

This is correct so think of cash as a sector. Right now nobody wants to own it, it's garbage and hated. That sentiment will reach some sort of zenith and just like other asset classes it will moderate and move back towards the mean. If polled we would probably be over 90% of investors saying avoid cash. Just like energy prior to this 40% run in a few months. We always go to extremes and the underlining drivers may not change. The bear case for old energy is still there, the bear case for cash will also still be there at the next correction but there will still be violent counter trend rallies along the way.

Kiroy said:

biden's speech tonight should be the inflection point that could force the market to choose one way or the other

Click to expand...

If that is true the inflection point will start in the credit markets not stocks. Ultimately these fiscal concerns are bigger issues for bond than stocks. But if things grow turbulent in the credit markets the stock market will start rocking soon there after.

Powell is at 2pm today, press conference at 2:30pm. We have trillions upon trillions "Trusting in the Fed" that the inflation is transitory. The data is concerning, but a massive credit market has remained calmed by Powell's assurances that it is just a blip and keeping the pedal to the floor is still "okay". It is scary stuff, we are facing one of the strongest economic expansions in 80yrs while we are still under full emergency levels of dovish policy with a Federal govt set to make a significant exponential increase in spending. This is a dangerous game we are playing, and him explaining that his policy is being influenced by the homeless camps he drives by on his way to work is probably the scariest part. Monetary policy is not going to fix that damn homeless camp.

I don't expect any change in messaging from him today, will be more "we are not thinking about thinking about raising rates" "Going to let it run hot" "not worried about asset bubbles" . People hear this message and think "oh shit sell everything" But it's much more complicated than that as gravel said who wants to be in cash when they are blowing every other asset bigger and making your cash worth less and less. Interest rates are zero so you can't make any return, they have us by the balls and an inflationary environment is exactly what the leftist wants right now. Only way they can achieve their social program utopia.

Tmac said:

I mean I asked this question weeks ago bc inflation and the sentiment was "Stay in cash bc you don't want to get into stonks at an ATH".

Click to expand...

Who said that?