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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Mist

Mist

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Why do the think the gubmint is crowing this "there is no inflation" mantra. If there is "no inflation" they can keep printing money out of air.
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I don't think the inflation in the housing market has anything to do with the money printing. It has to do with already wealthy people taking their accumulated money and fleeing cities or expanding their existing homes outside of the cities, now that they almost certainly won't have to show up for work in-person.

That said, inflation in corn prices is definitely the money printing. 1400 dollars buys a lot of Doritos.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Mist said:
I don't think the inflation in the housing market has anything to do with the money printing. It has to do with already wealthy people taking their accumulated money and fleeing cities or expanding their existing homes outside of the cities, now that they almost certainly won't have to show up for work in-person.

That said, inflation in corn prices is definitely the money printing. 1400 dollars buys a lot of Doritos.
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Inflation is most assuredly impacting house prices. Building materials (hello to you, wood) is driving new houses up which inflates the value of existing houses as alternatives.
 
Lambourne

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Inflation is most assuredly impacting house prices. Building materials (hello to you, wood) is driving new houses up which inflates the value of existing houses as alternatives.
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House prices have been shooting up in NW Europe too even though much less wood is used in construction here. Houses are selling within days and often above asking price. I think it's a combination of high demand due to corona, insufficient new construction because of environmental regulations, and the Austrian idea of low interest rates fueling asset bubbles.

Another major bank here just announced a negative savings rate from €100k with the expectation that that threshold is going to come down over time so people are just pumping money into anything and everything. It's going be spectacularly ugly when this finally blows up but who knows when that's going to happen.

Personally I've been moving into precious metals, my idea being that everyone is currently chasing those high returns on stocks/crypto leaving gold relatively undervalued. That's a multi-year plan though.
 
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Gravel

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Powell is at 2pm today, press conference at 2:30pm. We have trillions upon trillions "Trusting in the Fed" that the inflation is transitory. The data is concerning, but a massive credit market has remained calmed by Powell's assurances that it is just a blip and keeping the pedal to the floor is still "okay". It is scary stuff, we are facing one of the strongest economic expansions in 80yrs while we are still under full emergency levels of dovish policy with a Federal govt set to make a significant exponential increase in spending. This is a dangerous game we are playing, and him explaining that his policy is being influenced by the homeless camps he drives by on his way to work is probably the scariest part. Monetary policy is not going to fix that damn homeless camp.

I don't expect any change in messaging from him today, will be more "we are not thinking about thinking about raising rates" "Going to let it run hot" "not worried about asset bubbles" . People hear this message and think "oh shit sell everything" But it's much more complicated than that as gravel said who wants to be in cash when they are blowing every other asset bigger and making your cash worth less and less. Interest rates are zero so you can't make any return, they have us by the balls and an inflationary environment is exactly what the leftist wants right now. Only way they can achieve their social program utopia.
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This is what I mentioned the other day. Transitory inflation is bullshit. If we get 500% inflation in all goods for 2021, it "doesn't count" because it's seen as a one time event.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Gravel said:
This is what I mentioned the other day. Transitory inflation is bullshit. If we get 500% inflation in all goods for 2021, it "doesn't count" because it's seen as a one time event.
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When Janet Powell speaks, she is lying.
 
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Hateyou

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Mist said:
I don't think the inflation in the housing market has anything to do with the money printing. It has to do with already wealthy people taking their accumulated money and fleeing cities or expanding their existing homes outside of the cities, now that they almost certainly won't have to show up for work in-person.

That said, inflation in corn prices is definitely the money printing. 1400 dollars buys a lot of Doritos.
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There are several factors going on in housing.

No supply due to no one getting booted out at the moment + lumber shortage as all the builders tried to hold out on prices and bought all at once and mills being closed and Canada limiting supply via regulation. People fleeing cities. Investors hedging against inflation via real estate. People trying to buy while rates are super low. Probably some other factors I’m forgetting but inflation is definitely a contributor.
 
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Tmac

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Fogel said:
As furry said, there's different types of debt. There's a big difference between a mortgage debt at 3% interest backed by a stable asset and an unsecured loan or credit card debt at 6-20% interest. S&P500 averages 8-10% return a year easy, over 3-4 years with 40k that's a huge amount of money. Also, what area are you looking to buy a house in? Not all housing markets are the same.
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Charleston, SC or west of ATL.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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It's never good sign when a company refuses to break out a number. If the Apple TV numbers were good they would be crowing about it.

 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Hateyou said:
Like it matters though. They made a billion dollars every single day last quarter.
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They are like GOOG in this sense that they piss away insane money on shit outside their core that they have zero understanding of. They are so big and rich they should just buy companies that do what they want to expand into. Want to be a streaming company? Just fucking buy one. Want to be a movie/TV studio? Just buy one. Want to make autonomous cars? Buy someone. This is where MSFT excels (no pun). This is where Dynamics 365 came frome. They didn't design that shit, they bought all the companies and put them together in a single package.

Nope. Instead AAPL will piss away tens of billions on share buybacks.
 
Hateyou

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Sanrith Descartes said:
They are like GOOG in this sense that they piss away insane money on shit outside their core that they have zero understanding of. They are so big and rich they should just buy companies that do what they want to expand into. Want to be a streaming company? Just fucking buy one. Want to be a movie/TV studio? Just buy one. Want to make autonomous cars? Buy someone. This is where MSFT excels (no pun). This is where Dynamics 365 came frome. They didn't design that shit, they bought all the companies and put them together in a single package.

Nope. Instead AAPL will piss away tens of billions on share buybacks.
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Even when they do that though...they have like $250b cash on hand. What else they gona do with it?
 
Falstaff

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It's huge even though 6.4% is a "disappointment"... futures aren't seeing it that way, although they may have not reacted to this at all, I haven't been paying attention to overnight.
 
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