Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
- Start date
Furry
WoW Office
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There’s no safe spaces in this market. Pull your boot straps up and just take the punches. Trying to react by going cash could burn you hard with little potential for upside.
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Yeah. My dad is an economist convinced that everything is overvalued so he went almost entirely cash waiting for the crash... a position he's been sitting at since S&P 2700. But he'll be right any day now. SMH.
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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I say this in all seriousness. If you are feeling that icy cold fear creeping up your spine and thinking about selling to cash and realizing lots of losses then the best advice I can give is don't watch CNBC, don't watch the markets and stop coming to this thread and go spend your time in the Thot thread. Come back in six months. Fear will make you your own worst enemy.the best thing that happened to me as a trader was going through the Covid crash. That shit made me fearless because this shit is nothing by comparison.
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Fogel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Million dollar question is when are you going to buy back in? What's your plan?
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Arden
Blackwing Lair Raider
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Yeah that IS the million dollar question. Short answer is I don't know.
Blazin
's bear scenario seems like a good starting point. I'm not going to try and catch the absolute bottom, so I can afford to be pretty patient. I feel like I at least need to see some light at the end of the tunnel before I get back in and I'm just not seeing that right now. But like I said, I'm certainly no expert.
Burns
Golden Baronet of the Realm
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I think it goes something like this...
The Fed has three options to get us out of the hole they have created:
- They use inflation to "shrink" all the shit on their books ("good" for the billionaire asset class)
- They pop all the bubbles and trigger a huge correction (bear market, bad for the billionaires)
- Both, at the same time (bad for everyone)
In option 1 and 3, holding cash is a terrible idea and you are functionally loosing just as bad as you would in option 2.
What sets option 2 apart, for the part time investor (retail) is that the market will eventually recover, if you stay in it long enough, whereas holding cash means you have to time the buyback well in order to capitalize on that strategy or you miss the window and are worse off for it.
Also, inflation is currently high, so they are at a minimum hitting option 1...
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Zog
Blackwing Lair Raider
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Covid crash hit bottom in 5 weeks, it was violent and quick but still kind of respected the wedge.
Our last descending wedge technical bounce...
Resulted in our last mountain of gains.
It's about to happen gents. Im convinced.
Id also like to add that this bull thesis also has a nasty puke before breaking to the upside of said wedge.
Our last descending wedge technical bounce...
Resulted in our last mountain of gains.
It's about to happen gents. Im convinced.
Id also like to add that this bull thesis also has a nasty puke before breaking to the upside of said wedge.
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Zog
Blackwing Lair Raider
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I hate how the government has been so loose with bailouts over the last decade or so, you can't even count on them letting bubbles explode anymore.
When the rise in rates force bubbles to pop, are they going to be there to save them or are they going to let everything burn down?
Tmac
Adventurer
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Lol, yeah defense stocks doing well when America fights. Just keep in mind buying in now is after it has appreciated greatly from Ukraine. Make sure to go back pre-Ukraine and see where it eventually revert to. I say this as some who trades in and out of LMT and NOC.
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Lejina
(╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻
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I cashed out 100% the week before the COVID crash. I bought the no boats theory bringing about the crash and it paid off.
This time around it's a slow bleed and I haven't seen anything I could bank on bringing a precise crash short of world leaders announcing a draft. I was about 70% liquid two months ago and have been steadily buying back in the market. About 30% liquid now. Investment accounts total value remained pretty much unchanged since the new year.
This time around it's a slow bleed and I haven't seen anything I could bank on bringing a precise crash short of world leaders announcing a draft. I was about 70% liquid two months ago and have been steadily buying back in the market. About 30% liquid now. Investment accounts total value remained pretty much unchanged since the new year.
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Arden
Blackwing Lair Raider
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I wish I could claim I had some great insight that made me go 90% liquid at the beginning of the year, but it was dumb luck for me. I happened to move my TSP over to a Fidelity IRA and had to go cash to do that. I was supposed to buy back in immediately, but something made me hold off. I was originally only going to hold off a few days, but then things kept looking grim and a few days became a few weeks, and now it's been months.
I'm happy I avoided the steady bleed, but like others have said, the question is always when to buy back in. I'm looking at in the exact opposite from you- I'm waiting until I see an improvement, rather than buying back in because I can't forecast a specific crash. Definitely not saying I'm right, but how long can a slow bleed last? A long fucking time, right?
I know no one likes a bear, but what's the bull case for a turnaround? Supply chain problems are still bad and the covid forecast makes me think they will get worse- especially in China. Inflation is bad and likely to get worse. The war shows no end in sight. I could go on with negative stuff, but you get the point.