Investing General Discussion

VIX under 30

Creslin said:

The dude very shifty and we know he doesn't take anything SEC related very seriously so who knows. I wonder if the bot/user overstatement correction came before or after the actual deal was done. I know he made his offer and announced his intent before then.

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If we assume he isnt an idiot, I am betting he had the bot/fake account metrics in part of the deal agreement. If they fight him on this he can then rat them out to the SEC for falsifying public company financial disclosures.

Day after Cramer says he is out of BA, it is up 4%. lol

OU Ariakas said:

Isn't he also in a position to put it on hold, force them to verify the real users vs. bots, and then renegotiate the deal based on the actual user numbers? That is what my laymans view of this has been the entire time.

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That is what Hindenburg Research has been saying will happen.

FTEC ripping. Up 3%.

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Creslin said:

I just don't see how we could pull out of a recession that has barely touched the actual day to day economy. Seems like wishful thinking with a fed saying they are going to hike until the labor market shows some weakness. The shallowest recession we have had that wasn't bailed out by printers was 1990 and it lasted 9 months. Really similar situation too.

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I think it is wrong to think of this a recession. Everything is all screwy, but the problem is not a traditional recession at all. There's too much money trying to find too few homes.

Furry said:

I think it is wrong to think of this a recession. Everything is all screwy, but the problem is not a traditional recession at all. There's too much money trying to find too few homes.

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And tens of millions of people who live pay-check to pay-check now paying $100 for a tank of gas and $150 for 3 days of food.

Creslin said:

I mean isn't that almost exactly what 1990 was? Fed was hiking rates cause inflation was running hot and then Saddam invades Kuwait and gas spiked.

The DOW at the time dropped only like 15% before recovering so we are in line with that now but the big difference was COVID wasn't causing supply chain issues and the markets in 1990 weren't as overheated as they are today. To curb inflation they need to destroy paper wealth or at least keep it from growing further, which is the tight rope JP is trying to walk.

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We have this insane amount of non-directly financial variables hitting the markets the last 2 or 3 months. To be perfectly frank, I think the market has held up better than I expected. Near double digit inflation, Russia/Ukraine, China playing Taiwan games, NK launching missiles, Fed balance sheet run-off, rising rates, food shortages, supply chain fuckery, Congress being a shitshow (not that this is new), I could go on and all of this is occurring at the same time. AAPL is at a five month low. Thats it. A five month low.

PLTR +12.5%
NVDA +10%

Ripping it.

Gravel said:

Seems weird to say the economy isn't impacted. We've had plenty of people here talking about how the supply chain is fucking their business.

It's only not impacting it if you buy into the bullshit numbers the administration puts out about how amazing everything is. Otherwise it's actually a giant shit show.

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One of the Swamp Loggers from that show is getting out of the business bc they can't afford to truck wood to the mill anymore. The revenue economics of it currently is that fuel is 68%, the driver gets 33%, and there's nothing left over for parts, tires, and profit. This is pretty normal for the industry, since most logging operations were already subsidizing their trucking when fuel wasn't ridiculous.

Back in the day the economics of it was: fuel 25% fuel, 25% driver, 50% insurance, parts, tires, etc. And now the economics are totally fucked. And I imagine there are a lot of industries like logging you've never heard of that people are getting out of or choosing not to get into bc it doesn't make sense anymore.

I know today's rally is going to get sold to shit come the power hour, but it sure is fun to look at it while it lasts.