Investing General Discussion

Sanrith Descartes

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ROTH max is so low tho... :(
No. I am talking a conversion, not just putting money into a Roth. The only limit is the tax bill.

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Jysin

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14:46 [TSLA] NHTSA data likely shows Tesla Autopilot has disproportionately more crashes than rival automated driving systems - NY Post

- In coming days, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration plans to issue figures it has been gathering for nearly a year. The agency said in a separate report last week that it had documented more than 200 crashes involving Teslas that were using Autopilot, “Full Self-Driving,” Traffic-Aware Cruise Control or some other of the company’s partially automated systems.
- Tesla’s figure and its crash rate per 1,000 vehicles was substantially higher than the corresponding numbers for other automakers that provided such data to The Associated Press ahead of NHTSA’s release. The number of Tesla collisions was revealed as part of a NHTSA investigation of Teslas on Autopilot that had crashed into emergency and other vehicles stopped along roadways.
 
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Furry

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ROTH max is so low tho... :(
I’ve shoveled the max in for quite a while. Scared to look, but I was close to six figures on my Roth earlier in the year. It adds up over time.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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14:46 [TSLA] NHTSA data likely shows Tesla Autopilot has disproportionately more crashes than rival automated driving systems - NY Post

- In coming days, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration plans to issue figures it has been gathering for nearly a year. The agency said in a separate report last week that it had documented more than 200 crashes involving Teslas that were using Autopilot, “Full Self-Driving,” Traffic-Aware Cruise Control or some other of the company’s partially automated systems.
- Tesla’s figure and its crash rate per 1,000 vehicles was substantially higher than the corresponding numbers for other automakers that provided such data to The Associated Press ahead of NHTSA’s release. The number of Tesla collisions was revealed as part of a NHTSA investigation of Teslas on Autopilot that had crashed into emergency and other vehicles stopped along roadways.
Exactly how many other automated driving systems are currently on the road in the US? Now compare number of vehicles and miles driven.
 

Gravel

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So something that hasnt gotten mentioned during this rout of the markets is that it might prove to be a worthwhile time to convert some/all of your traditional IRA to a Roth. With the conversion essentially taking money from the IRA and putting it in the Roth, you go from pre-tax money to post-tax money and all the money you convert you will now pay taxes on come next April. Why now might be a good time is that if you are down 20, 30, 50% in some of your holdings now, then there is going to be less to tax during the transfer. This means when (hopefully) the market recovers, everything you transfer now recovers tax free for the future.

Example: you invested 100k in the SPY over the last couple of years and now that position is worth 75K today. If you convert that SPY to your Roth you only pay taxes on the 75k. Assuming it recovers, at retirement when you start taking money out it will all be tax free (since you paid the tax on it at conversion). So the initial 75k and all the stock appreciation is now not taxed at distribution.

ps.. Check with your tax professional before doing this. You very need to estimate out your tax hit for doing this since the bill will be due come April.
This isn't really worth it unless you have low income (like someone retired). Personally, a few years ago my plan was to do a Roth conversion ladder (convert traditional to Roth, pay 0% tax on it because the long term dividend tax rate allows a married couple almost $100k, season for 5 years, withdraw), but healthcare changes that. Having artificially high income by converting it means I get a larger ACA tax bill.

I'm still not 100% sure on what's the better hit to take, but I'm thinking I'd rather take a 10% early withdrawal penalty over ACA subsidies, as crazy as that sounds (or maybe not, health insurance is ridiculous).
 

Sanrith Descartes

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This isn't really worth it unless you have low income (like someone retired). Personally, a few years ago my plan was to do a Roth conversion ladder (convert traditional to Roth, pay 0% tax on it because the long term dividend tax rate allows a married couple almost $100k, season for 5 years, withdraw), but healthcare changes that. Having artificially high income by converting it means I get a larger ACA tax bill.

I'm still not 100% sure on what's the better hit to take, but I'm thinking I'd rather take a 10% early withdrawal penalty over ACA subsidies, as crazy as that sounds (or maybe not, health insurance is ridiculous).
Its not for everyone. But with the market in the dumper, it might be worth it depending on someone's individual circumstance.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Fucking Ackman. Raise rates really high now so we can get to a new Fed easing cycle faster.

 
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taebin

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Perplexed how the market will react to Fed rate hike news tomorrow. Not sure if a three quarter or full point raise will be well received compared to the half point. On one hand it shows they are actually looking at data and attempting a more severe course correction for the near term, or if it will cause higher concern about continued large hikes.
 

Jysin

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The issue with the hike today becomes about credibility. Markets have been pricing in a 75bp move. However, Powell had just said 75bp moves are off the table at the meeting last month. Doing an about face on that admits that inflation is out of control and that he is wrong.

Despite the fact I think we need a >75bp move now, I fully expect a 50bp move as planned, while Powell floats the 75bp moves ahead being “data dependent” as usual.

This opens the door to bigger hike moves while saving credibility. At least saves credibility to most that don’t really understand wtf is going on.

A 50bp move as planned could spark a little relief rally in markets. If Powell comes out big dick and moves 75bp, I think markets react quite strongly in selling, but start to round out a bounce in coming days / weeks. Remember it’s uncertainty markets don’t like. Bad news out of the way and markets can reprice and move on.
 
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Creslin

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Agree with Jysin. Half point better for the markets short term full point or .75 likely better long term. The honest to god truth is his best move would be like a 1.5 pt or 2pt hike and the fed saying they are likely pausing for the remainder of the year as they assess the rate hikes impact on the economy.

There is no soft landing scenario in reality and bigger hikes faster will help the market find its bottom. I don’t think the decline can end until the fed signals interest rates have stabilized so any relief will be short lived as small rate hikes will lead to inflation staying high
 

Furry

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What was that company that took out a loan at like 10% interest rates so they could give out loans on it at 1% and we were all laughing at them? They might be the ones laughing their way to the bank at this rate.
 

Mist

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Fucking Ackman. Raise rates really high now so we can get to a new Fed easing cycle faster.

These people can only make money in a boom/bust economy. They can't make money in a stable economy where you have to actually produce value to get ahead.
 
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