Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Guest, did you like the last podcast notification?? Well here's the second one, and for the third podcast! Yep. This Thursday 8-8-24 at 7pm Central
Go here to check out his podcast thread for info on topics and links!Go into the FoH discord and find the Happy Time Fun Hour channel and give it a listen!
Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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Mist
REEEEeyore
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I'm still underwater on it lol
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ShakyJake
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Could've made 2 grand off that single FDX straddle. EVERY time I try something with the paper account I win. If I do it for real, I lose. WTF.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Analyze the differences between your paper trades and real ones. If you can't see a difference then it could just be bad luck. I am hesitant though if you are saying you always win doing paper straddles. I say this because there is no 100% "I win" strategy. If you aren't ever taking a loss in paper trades it sounds like something there is flawed.
ShakyJake
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No, it's not specifically straddles. What I meant was, every time I try a different strategy on paper it's green. For this, I was testing a straddle play prior to an earnings call. My gut instinct was FDX was going to be really good or really bad.
About straddles: I've searched YouTube for videos specifically talking about these and nearly all discourage them. But, when you think about it, your odds are 66%, right? Stock goes up, you win. Stocks goes down, you win. The only losing direction is sideways. The only difficulty is knowing when a move is coming. However, if you buy enough time, it'll eventually occur.
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We're so fucking fucked lmao. Welcome to our hyperinflation future I guess
I hate charts with non-zero Y axes. That's a net 3 percent fall in 12 months.
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Mist
REEEEeyore
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As long as they don't give the money to poor people to buy food we'll be fine.We're so fucking fucked lmao. Welcome to our hyperinflation future I guess
Moglyzoke Moogleman
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Sanrith Descartes
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Not exactly. You dont just need movement, you need "enough" movement to create a profit after accounting for the losing side of the option. You are betting on either an up or down movement, yes, but this guarantees at least one of the two bests will lose. So sideways movement you lose both bets, movement in either direction is an auto lose for one bet "but" you need enough movement on the other side to cover the cost of the premium paid on winning side "plus" the cost of the premium on the losing side. You can get a nice 3% move but based on IV and the Greeks that money made on the 3% may not be enough to cover the cost of both premiums.
The options calculators will actually give you a good idea of the exact price action you need to break even on a straddle/strangle.
Blazin
Creative Title
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Be ready for some pretty big moves today. Closing below 200d for S&P would be meaningful. Really trying not to put on my bear party hat on but I do hope it's the direction, still think we'll be better off on the long run with a more conventional bear market low flush out.
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ShakyJake
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Right, I've tried using the one built into Thinkorswim . I understand the "V" graph, but it always shows profitable regions way further out than what I'm experiencing, probably due to IV.
I'm wondering, since the market is extremely volatile, that straddle plays are a good bet right now. I just sold my single QQQ straddle for a $500 gain. I'll re-enter a bit later when things calm down for the CPI report next week.
Sanrith Descartes
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I 100% agree that market volatility is profitably right now. I cant speak to ThinkorSwim, I use Fidelity ATP.
Moglyzoke Moogleman
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Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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If you cant make reliable money trading straight equities, the last thing you need to be doing is playing with options strategies. Complete understanding of the underlying is critical before adding half a dozen other complex variables on top of that.
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Moglyzoke Moogleman
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Hateyou
Not Great, Not Terrible
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Picked up some MP today. It’s always been one I’ve watched and kept saying I’d buy when it gets in the 20s. It hits 20s, I don’t buy, then it goes back up to mid 30s, every time. Now that I bought it it’ll probably take a shit down into the teens for a couple years.
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Sanrith Descartes
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I like the stock and its always on my watch list. I generally play it with writing puts at prices I wont mind if I get assigned. Tesla's announcement of them designing a new motor that takes little to no rare earths is the big unknown. I am watching the $20 and $22.5 strikes if we get a crash into the close today to write some more puts.
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