Investing General Discussion

Borzak

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Not sure but seem to remember seeing an ETF that tracked the published trades of those in congress.
 

Tmac

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Jysin I was thinking about this exact guy this morning, just as an anecdote because I got a chuckle thinking about reading a future SVen post at S&P 500 8000 talking about how wrong the market is for constantly doing the wrong thing and going up. He is one of those guys with valid concerns but he is very good at seeing the "bad" and is completely blind to the "good". He ignores significant market forces in favor of others. He is a good example of a guy I don't understand how he makes it all other than profiteering off fear. He has missed every rally for years and years. He will occasionally make a snarky "I bet this stupid rigged market goes up" style posts that he will then point to as his "I was bullish all along" cover.

The government needs inflation, it needs as much inflation as the population will tolerate without uprising. It's the magic answer that is always there that people seem to constantly be blind to. "How is the govt ever going to pay this debt!" We have heard that for generations, and the government has shown time and time again the HOW. They are going to print their way out of it. The govt will borrow money from you today and pay you back with a devalued dollar in the future. It's not all doom and gloom the secret sauce remains keeping economic growth moving forward to help absorb the inflation impact.

I am someone who is very concerned for the future, but I also have learned enough to be careful not to let my concerns run a muck. What if we go through a period of significantly higher GDP growth. Rarely does anyone consider that possibility. Technological change can move things beyond what seems possible from our current perspective. I may not be able to say how that will happen anymore than a man sitting at the birth of the industrial revolution could have. But if it does happen we will be able to look back and go "oh..that's how"

I'll end my random rambling on this, the people who see the inflationary pressures are oft the exact same people afraid of equities. In reality that is the guy you should pass running with all his money to buy more stonks. Instead the guy talking endlessly about govt easing and inflation sits in cash like a god damn moron, as the tide rises and he drowns he'll be yelling "told you this would happen!" as the people who moved to higher ground watch him sink below the surface.

Hrmm…

My business is starting to do well and my short term plan was to sit on cash until inflation comes down and then buy a house.

I was thinking that may be like a 2-3 year timeline. But, I think Im hearing you say the bug is the feature and its here to stay and it may be better not to sit on cash.

Damn.
 

Cutlery

Kill All the White People
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So in other words inflation is just another tax. Just deferred. (Or on our children)

On yourself too. I didnt realize this until I was talking to my insurance guy about retirement. "So, the way it's looking right now, you're gonna have X per month when you retire, so youre looking good. Now, the problem comes if you live 30 years...is X at 65 going to be the same purchasing power at 95?"

Ah fuck, man. We've already gone from peanut butter being a fucking nickel in my lifetime
 

Tmac

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On yourself too. I didnt realize this until I was talking to my insurance guy about retirement. "So, the way it's looking right now, you're gonna have X per month when you retire, so youre looking good. Now, the problem comes if you live 30 years...is X at 65 going to be the same purchasing power at 95?"

Ah fuck, man. We've already gone from peanut butter being a fucking nickel in my lifetime

When was peanut butter a nickel?
 

Cutlery

Kill All the White People
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When was peanut butter a nickel?

It wasn't, but you know what I'm saying. Shit was super cheap when we were kids. You could get loaves of bread for 50 cents. And there's probably people still alive where peanut butter being a nickel was closer to the truth than not.
 
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Gravel

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On yourself too. I didnt realize this until I was talking to my insurance guy about retirement. "So, the way it's looking right now, you're gonna have X per month when you retire, so youre looking good. Now, the problem comes if you live 30 years...is X at 65 going to be the same purchasing power at 95?"

Ah fuck, man. We've already gone from peanut butter being a fucking nickel in my lifetime
Maybe I'll get around to my retirement thread sometime before we hit year 4.

The S&P is a good vehicle for specifically this reason. The CAGR of it is about 10%. Which means 7% after normal inflation. If you can stash away enough for the 4% rule (25x your annual expenses), you have a good buffer to account for the unexpected like higher inflation.

And if you avoid sequence of returns risk (your money plummeting in the first few years, like with the dotcom bust), you're likely going to have significantly more money than you started with.

Like, we're potentially at a point where we just end up with a retarded amount of money. We're not counting on inheritance, but if we get any we'll have more money than we know what to do with.
 
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fris

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Not sure but seem to remember seeing an ETF that tracked the published trades of those in congress.
it's useless though. they don't have to disclose their trades for 30 days and are egregiously outside of compliance to that window
 
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Burns

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Not sure but seem to remember seeing an ETF that tracked the published trades of those in congress.
Here is one, if you want to look at it, but yea, rules make it so they can wait a while before they are required to report:

2024-03-23 16.03.20 www.quiverquant.com e7211c4bce78.png
 
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Rangoth

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I just looked at nanc.

lol. Holy shit that thing is just nonstop up over 5 years. Almost meme level. I think I may toss a few dollars in that thing
 
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The_Black_Log Foler

Stock Pals Senior Vice President
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I just looked at nanc.

lol. Holy shit that thing is just nonstop up over 5 years. Almost meme level. I think I may toss a few dollars in that thing
Bro it’s like one year old and underperforming SPY since its inception..
 

Rangoth

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Am I looking at the right thing? I didn’t say it blows S&P out of the water and I’m not betting my life on it, but the fucker is up consistently. I am just saying, the data and history I can see shows that it is clearly a “winner” amongst the noise

 
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Khane

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From my cursory research that fund was created Feb 7 2023. During that same time frame the S&P returns are 28.8%.

So, in fact, beating the S&P.

1 year is not a great barometer when comparing to something as tried and true as the S&P
 
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The_Black_Log Foler

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Will the AI renaissance bring nuclear power to the forefront? Thought this was interesting as we were recently discussing Tesla’s potential future as an energy infrastructure company..

 
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Rod-138

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Just went to a tax seminar and they had some interesting points. If you’re going to index in the nq account, then why not buy around 30-50 of the top positions so you can tax harvest every month and get about the same returns.

I know the answer is bc then you have to actually do it, but yeah, if you can keep resetting the cost basis by selling a gain / loss, then you can reduce tax drag.

some other neat stuff was for later in life, but I didn’t know you could use capital gains to fund a charitable account and over fund it for Roth conversion strategies.

The seminar was all about converting to Roth and it was kinda funny, right before it ended some Asian guy stepped up and was like ‘yeah anyway, I don’t really believe in any of this math.’
 

Unidin

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There's also SMA products out there that will loss harvest for you.

Full disclosure, I work for one of the firms that provides SMAs. They've come down significantly in price to where they don't charge much more than an index fund. The catch with most of them though is that you have to use an advisor to access the product which adds on another layer of cost. But for people that already have an advisor or get a lot of value out of the tax alpha, it may be worth it.
 

sleevedraw

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Will the AI renaissance bring nuclear power to the forefront? Thought this was interesting as we were recently discussing Tesla’s potential future as an energy infrastructure company..


I had a shower thought about this after I watched Jensen's talk at GTC. Energy's gotta come from somewhere to power all this shit.

Might make sense to look at Helion, Zap, and some fusion companies as well. Dave Ruzic seems to think that some of them are close (granted, he's always been an optimist.)
 
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