Sanrith Descartes
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Investing General Discussion
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Yes I think this too. And the duration and extent of this rally is going to depend on what this ‘temporary’ deescalation is. I think if we see a deescalation to something under the incremental liberation day tariffs like 30% and an early compromise like fentynal then the rally has some legs. If it’s just a cut to like 80% I worry it’s not nearly enough and we could see markets down.
trump in many ways would be smart to go with a bigger cut since I think much of the damage to Chinese production bound for the us is already done. Companies will shift away just more slowly and deliberately if tariffs are cut back to something reasonable.
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Haus
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"We cannot abide vigilante justice in our country, so I am signing an anti-vigilante bill, specifically Bond Vigilantes."
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Biden did this with Medicare for specific drugs and the industry fought it tooth and nail. There's no way Trump can do this with an executive order. Maybe, he could argue a limited scope with Medicare/Medicaid, but he can't tell a drug manufacturer what they're selling their product to another private entity at a specific price.
HHS Announces Cost Savings for 64 Prescription Drugs Thanks to the Medicare Prescription Drug Inflation Rebate Program Established by the Biden-Harris Administration’s Lower Cost Prescription Drug Law | CMS
Under the Inflation Reduction Act, some people with Medicare will pay less for some Part B drugs because the drug’s price increased faster than the rate of inflation.
The part I am really interested in is not powerplants etc., but the infrastructure facing the consumers. In Europe this needs to be expanded greatly, due to everything going electric. A week without power and we are back to the stone age. I am guessing the US is facing the same issues, just lagging. BTW, Siemens Energy is (supposedly) an independent company of Siemens. But besides this I know shit about it, that's why I'm asking.
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Big Phoenix
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US and China lowering tariffs.
Jysin
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Big gap above 200D and 100D on SPY.
I am dubious how much more this rally can go, given we are running out of positive pumps. The reality of the situation remains that a 30% tariff is still in place, which is fairly consequential to most businesses.
We are still set for the supply shock to hit in the coming weeks as well.
New all time highs seem like a stretch given the financial damage that has been done already.
Bond markets (yields) are ripping too, which is bad news for refinancing US gov debt maturing this year. All the while, the administration is trying to push through tax cuts. Deficit looks to worsen.
I am dubious how much more this rally can go, given we are running out of positive pumps. The reality of the situation remains that a 30% tariff is still in place, which is fairly consequential to most businesses.
We are still set for the supply shock to hit in the coming weeks as well.
New all time highs seem like a stretch given the financial damage that has been done already.
Bond markets (yields) are ripping too, which is bad news for refinancing US gov debt maturing this year. All the while, the administration is trying to push through tax cuts. Deficit looks to worsen.
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Debt refinancing and the current trend in employment and low level consumer spending is worrying but I think the supply shock side will be very minimal.
I know many companies in my industry started to release shipments last week and since everyone built up stock in march no one is near out. I doubt you see empty shelves.
I also think at this point price increase plans will moderate further into the 5% range so it will have an impact on inflation but not as fast or high. I can’t see less than 5% unless we see the 10% universal tariff start to drop.
Kirun
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Sanrith Descartes
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Only on the US side i believe. Chyna is going to 10%. Ot is effectively 10% on each side plus the US is keeping the additional 20% due to fentanyl. The fact Chyna agreed to this tells.me they realize they are fucked.
"The move will drop American tariffs on Chinese goods, which currently run as high as 145%, to 30% and slash China's retaliatory duties from 125% to 10%."
Sanrith Descartes
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All the Mag 7 are booming except for GOOGL. Even this news isn't enough to overcome the ad revenue news last week.
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Haus
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This is true, but what he can do, as Biden did, was mandate that "Medicare and medicaid simply won't pay over a certain amount for a given drug, and that price is determined by whatever we find the lowest price you're selling it for elsewhere is". They will fight it again, but since the government is already functionally doing this to medical providers for everything else in the medical space they'll eventually lose that fight.Biden did this with Medicare for specific drugs and the industry fought it tooth and nail. There's no way Trump can do this with an executive order. Maybe, he could argue a limited scope with Medicare/Medicaid, but he can't tell a drug manufacturer what they're selling their product to another private entity at a specific price.
HHS Announces Cost Savings for 64 Prescription Drugs Thanks to the Medicare Prescription Drug Inflation Rebate Program Established by the Biden-Harris Administration’s Lower Cost Prescription Drug Law | CMS
Under the Inflation Reduction Act, some people with Medicare will pay less for some Part B drugs because the drug’s price increased faster than the rate of inflation.www.cms.gov
And the government, through Medicare and Medicaid is functionally their largest customer anywhere. Downstream of this insurance companies covering these drugs would then demand Medicare/Medicaid pricing....
Rangoth
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Yep....my TSLA puts got chewed due to some new about tariffs/trade deal and some Chinese battery maker doubling down. Not sure how that helps a car company which does not sell any cars, but whatever. I played - I lost, outside of my chasing the SPY momentum I lost my last 2
Some of my longs are doing well though, OPTT/KULR are both riding the general market wave and OPTT keeps releasing fantastic sales news and deals. I have hopes for that one. KULR is a bit of a stretch.
Some of my longs are doing well though, OPTT/KULR are both riding the general market wave and OPTT keeps releasing fantastic sales news and deals. I have hopes for that one. KULR is a bit of a stretch.
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Haus
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I was doing some reading this weekend on GOOG. There are a surprising number of headwinds lining up against them....
- Search , as mentioned, becoming a commoditized building block of the internet experience. When search is something done in the background and filtered it makes it much harder to leverage sponsored results/etc...
- There's growing thought that that they're not in a position to "win" the AI wars.
- AI integration into devices, there's a growing push for this to be like browsers in OS land, where users can choose which AI assistant they use rather than having one baked into the OS. (I think I touched on this one)
- When Huawei got exiled by the US government, they also pivoted to build their own mobile OS, siphoning away a lot of the android base. Now other Asian manufacturers seem to be aligning to use the Huawei mobile OS. If that happens it could leave Android as "the OS that Samsung and Google run on their phones". Imagine Android being locked out of China and much of the Asian market.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Yeah. I didn't cut them from my portfolio lightly and not to speak for Blaz, but I don't think he did either. I'm not saying they are going bankrupt or anything, but I think their days as a superpower are behind them baring some unseen news or revolutionary new product.
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Sanrith Descartes
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What a whirlwind couple of months. Took an absolute bath the week after liberation day and ended up deploying essentially all my capital in the selloff. Taking this opportunity to rebalance to a more normal cash allocation.
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Sanrith Descartes
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I am not betting against the big Cheetoh. We are back to Late Oct/Early Nov price action right now and we still haven't moved on interest rates. I like the setup I am seeing for a nice run into the summer.
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