Investing General Discussion

Gravel

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Tirant said:
If you’re retired and fully invested I get what you mean, but for new money, I need some more dips.
April was fun
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What I always tell people is...

It doesn't matter. Let's say you're buying something at $100 a share right now, and you're waiting for a "buy the dip" moment when it drops to $90.

Let's also say you're around 20 years from retirement, and the market doubles every 7 years. By the time you actually need that money, the stock is now $800. Did that 10% dip make any difference whatsoever? It's slightly over 1% of the value it was 20 years ago.

And if it's money you're just playing with, individual stocks fluctuate plenty for you to day trade, so the market slowly crawling up the rest of the year is irrelevant. In fact, you should be happy we're not still in a hyper volatile market because that shit going on for the entire year would be bad as hell for everything.
 
tugofpeace

tugofpeace

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Gravel said:
What I always tell people is...

It doesn't matter. Let's say you're buying something at $100 a share right now, and you're waiting for a "buy the dip" moment when it drops to $90.

Let's also say you're around 20 years from retirement, and the market doubles every 7 years. By the time you actually need that money, the stock is now $800. Did that 10% dip make any difference whatsoever? It's slightly over 1% of the value it was 20 years ago.

And if it's money you're just playing with, individual stocks fluctuate plenty for you to day trade, so the market slowly crawling up the rest of the year is irrelevant. In fact, you should be happy we're not still in a hyper volatile market because that shit going on for the entire year would be bad as hell for everything.
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I don't entirely agree.

If you put in $100,000 today with a cost basis of $100, and assuming the market doubles every 7 years, after 28 years your $100,000 turns into $1,600,000.

If you do the same at a cost basis of $90, your $100,000 turns into $178k.

$178k to me is a lot of money.

In this volatile of a market, a 20% dip isn't unlikely so that $178k turns into $356k..
 
Gravel

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
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And if it doesn't dip? And you sat out while the market runs up?

You're just talking about market timing and trying to fancy it up with "buy the dip." I'm telling you time in the market beats timing the market.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
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Gravel said:
And if it doesn't dip? And you sat out while the market runs up?

You're just talking about market timing and trying to fancy it up with "buy the dip." I'm telling you time in the market beats timing the market.
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No Money GIF by Forallcrypto
 
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Lambourne

Lambourne

Bronze Baronet of the Realm
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Remember when Reagan invited Volcker to the White House and it was all hush-hush and indirect hints to cut rates?

As an aside, Switzerland runs a balanced budget.

1751306044696.png


 
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Flobee

Flobee

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tugofpeace said:
Jerome is a fucking retard who needs to be fired IMO.

"iNfLaTiOn Is TrAnSiToRy"
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There is an argument that the Fed, by holding rates high (when combined with the move from LIBOR to SOFR), is mainly concerned with wresting control of the off-shore dollar market and the decision has absolutely nothing to do with inflation in short / medium term. Combine this with the stable coin legislation and one has to wonder if Trump is REALLY at odds with Powell, or if they are doing some amount of play acting. Trumps needs political cover for holding rates high while debt rolls over so we can blame Powell here, and Powell is trying to achieve his real goal while having the benefit of looking like he is a politically neutral by snubbing Trump's demands. Its worth remembering that Trump is 100% aware of the trap that being the world reserve currency is and he is actively trying to resolve that whether you can see it or not.

Or maybe everything is exactly as it appears and we should hate Powell like we're being told to. Also yes, end the Fed pls
 
Khane

Khane

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Comparing the central bank rates of countries around the world who's populations, corporations and governments treat and leverage debt vastly differently than the US does seems... fairly disingenuous.
 
tugofpeace

tugofpeace

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Khane said:
Comparing the central bank rates of countries around the world who's populations, corporations and governments treat and leverage debt vastly differently than the US does seems... fairly disingenuous.
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Yep. I was just laughing at Leavitt comparing us to places like Zimbabwe
 
Araysar

Loser Araysar

Log Wizard
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Rangoth said:
and.....I bailed on the BULL. This looks like it has not found a bottom at all and I think the selling will continue through the month until all warrants are redeemed. A bit of a loss but I was able to get out before it got bad since it was a slow death march and not a sudden drop. Long term projections don't look great either.
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Today was the last day to redeem warrants on BULL

Stock was up today over 10%

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Haus

Haus

I am Big Balls!
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Gravel said:
And if it doesn't dip? And you sat out while the market runs up?

You're just talking about market timing and trying to fancy it up with "buy the dip." I'm telling you time in the market beats timing the market.
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This is what I've had to learn over time. Now I'm far more of a DCA adherent. Know what you feel will appreciate in value over time, invest in it regularly, when the money is there make the purchase.

Trying to play "I have the money there, but I'm waiting for a market dip" is the gateway drug to degen gambling IMHO ;)
 
Rangoth

Rangoth

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Araysar Araysar That makes sense but my options were short dated and I bailed a while ago. I didn't want to hold the stock. It may continue to gain but I think it might be in for a long haul before really jumping up. There are better short term and long term plays for me.

For long term I still like SOFI, which went up over 18$ today as well, it was a good day in general for a lot of these types of names where people were being careful about where to put their money, now it's going back into some midcaps or decent names but not safe plays. SOFI is way above what it should be though, so if it goes up again tomorrow I'll set a stop loss and take a pretty big win. I would buy back in on a dip(if it occurs). This is another name I think will be around for a long time and see some strong growth over 2-5 years. I just don't love massive(% wise) jumps in short windows, they *almost* always dive back down.....of course only when i hold. If I sell it just keeps going up to 25$ since that's how the market works ;)
 
Araysar

Loser Araysar

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Rangoth said:
Araysar Araysar That makes sense but my options were short dated and I bailed a while ago. I didn't want to hold the stock. It may continue to gain but I think it might be in for a long haul before really jumping up. There are better short term and long term plays for me.

For long term I still like SOFI, which went up over 18$ today as well, it was a good day in general for a lot of these types of names where people were being careful about where to put their money, now it's going back into some midcaps or decent names but not safe plays. SOFI is way above what it should be though, so if it goes up again tomorrow I'll set a stop loss and take a pretty big win. I would buy back in on a dip(if it occurs). This is another name I think will be around for a long time and see some strong growth over 2-5 years. I just don't love massive(% wise) jumps in short windows, they *almost* always dive back down.....of course only when i hold. If I sell it just keeps going up to 25$ since that's how the market works ;)
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SOFI isnt going away, its a solid company

p.s. BULL went from 11.95 to 12.5 in the aftermarket today, tomorrow will be very interesting
 
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