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Sanrith Descartes

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Just like apple going up on saying their AI plans are a failure so they're going with openai.
AAPL will save tons of money going with another company or just buying one when sure winners have emerged. Its the smart play when you have $100b in cash sitting around on the books.
 
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Lambourne

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A visible indication of how much the dollar has dropped this year. Bitcoin is right around the January high in USD, but it's way off in Swiss Francs. Very similar charts in other currencies.

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Il_Duce Lightning Lord Rule

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I don't think the dollar is going anywhere at this point. I think it's the Euro that's going to go away in the near-medium term, barring the Europeans doing something to embroil us all in another world war.

But, a lot of that hinges on whether the Trump admin is successful in their bid to 're-orient' the way global business gets done and who has access to US markets and what it costs them for said access. So far it looks like they're well on their way, but that's just IMO.


Put it like this: let's say you have a pile of money to invest and you're a European. What's the sentiment you see when you look around at the big EU industries? What about the cost of energy and doing business in the EU? The EU regulatory climate? How about EU demographics going forward that gives you a leg up when it comes to supplying industry with competent workers?

Now if that same person looks at the US and does all that same analysis, is he going to feel better or worse about investing in the US vs the EU?


I think my hypothetical rich European would bet on the US kicking the crap out of the EU economically if he was objective about it, and I bet I'm not alone in that assessment.
 
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Rangoth

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I don't think the dollar is going anywhere at this point. I think it's the Euro that's going to go away in the near-medium term, barring the Europeans doing something to embroil us all in another world war.

I know this is not the politics thread but I 100% agree and this conversation is relevant here. The EU issue is that they are having a similar MAGA type populist movement there, only because of the way the EU works, it may drive many countries to want to "brexit" the EU if their version of Trump wins. I don't actually believe this will happen, but anything is possible if the divide becomes great enough over migration or any of these wars/skirmishes.

The right(wrong?) countries leaving *and* dropping the euro(I do not believe they are fully tethered) could destroy the euro. I think if you join you are supposed to adopt the euro but do they let you stay on it if you leave? Never cared to google that.

Side note: If tomorrow is like today I may have my MSTR shares finally called away. It went up 30$ at one point today. Wish I had bought a single call! 100$ turned in to 1.8k on the options chain I was watching. I didn't see the break out until too late and then I kept thinking no way it keeps going so I never bought in.
 
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Il_Duce Lightning Lord Rule

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I know this is not the politics thread but I 100% agree and this conversation is relevant here.
Concur. I think we can talk about this here as long as we don't veer off into non-technical or non 'how do/should I react to this development?' type of discussion.
Save the rest for pol.
 

Lambourne

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I don't think the dollar is going anywhere at this point. I think it's the Euro that's going to go away in the near-medium term, barring the Europeans doing something to embroil us all in another world war.

But, a lot of that hinges on whether the Trump admin is successful in their bid to 're-orient' the way global business gets done and who has access to US markets and what it costs them for said access. So far it looks like they're well on their way, but that's just IMO.


Put it like this: let's say you have a pile of money to invest and you're a European. What's the sentiment you see when you look around at the big EU industries? What about the cost of energy and doing business in the EU? The EU regulatory climate? How about EU demographics going forward that gives you a leg up when it comes to supplying industry with competent workers?

Now if that same person looks at the US and does all that same analysis, is he going to feel better or worse about investing in the US vs the EU?


I think my hypothetical rich European would bet on the US kicking the crap out of the EU economically if he was objective about it, and I bet I'm not alone in that assessment.

It's not really about it "going away", it's devaluation. There's a currency risk for foreign investors/bond buyers and if this drop in value continues, it's going to drive away those foreign investments and cause bond rates to go up, causing the very problem the US government is trying to avoid.

EU regulation and energy prices are an issue. Is it a bigger issue than the currency risk of investing in the US market, with an (according to its own reports) unsustainable government debt trajectory? There isn't a simple answer here. The "obvious safe plays" never work out in the long term. Even if real, they end up overbought and the free market sniffs out the BS eventually.
 
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