Investing General Discussion

Cad

scientia potentia est
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Yeah, it was one of those revisions that is so extreme it even has some pretty conservative true believers asking if the BLS has an honest grip to really measure the numbers.....

And yeah DXY took a punch in the taco today relative the last week and a half of good upward movement.
Wouldn't surprise me at all if those agencies are infested with leftists as well. If I were Trump I would have an auditing agency scrutinizing those numbers to see if there's any fuckery.
 
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Furry

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Distant great uncle with money died off and somehow a chunk made it through a hundred greedy irish relatives. Getting around 200k face value treasuries. The fraction I got so far is all late 90s EEs. Got a relative flying to pick up the rest next week.

Obviously gonna cash them all since they are close to their 30 year limit. Am I gonna have to pay taxes on this shit? Pretty sure this would count as part of my universal family exemption, and be immune to federal tax, right?
 
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Cad

scientia potentia est
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Distant great uncle with money died off and somehow a chunk made it through a hundred greedy irish relatives. Getting around 200k face value treasuries. The fraction I got so far is all late 90s EEs. Got a relative flying to pick up the rest next week.

Obviously gonna cash them all since they are close to their 30 year limit. Am I gonna have to pay taxes on this shit? Pretty sure this would count as part of my universal family exemption, and be immune to federal tax, right?
You don't pay federal taxes on inheritance, no. The estate may have taxes depending on the amounts, but the beneficiaries no.
 
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dragonbr

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Wouldn't surprise me at all if those agencies are infested with leftists as well. If I were Trump I would have an auditing agency scrutinizing those numbers to see if there's any fuckery.
The same leftists that revised last year's numbers by like 800k 2 months before the election? Trump claimed the Biden admin were caught in a massive scandal of padding their numbers and if it wouldn't have been for the revised BLS data we would have never found out about their lies. :trump:
 

Quevy

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Wouldn't surprise me at all if those agencies are infested with leftists as well. If I were Trump I would have an auditing agency scrutinizing those numbers to see if there's any fuckery.
What a time to be alive. It was always a given that the data coming out of China was fake and gay. Never thought the same would happen to the US, the most transparent market in the world. Yet here we are. I don't think we've had consistent good data since Bush was president.
 
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Cad

scientia potentia est
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The same leftists that revised last year's numbers by like 800k 2 months before the election? Trump claimed the Biden admin were caught in a massive scandal of padding their numbers and if it wouldn't have been for the revised BLS data we would have never found out about their lies. :trump:
It's entirely possible they're just incompetent as well, but I'd still investigate. Trust but verify.
 
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Haus

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Wouldn't surprise me at all if those agencies are infested with leftists as well. If I were Trump I would have an auditing agency scrutinizing those numbers to see if there's any fuckery.
They are, and this has been going on for a long time. Apparently the "smart people" haven't considered the BLS stats reliable for over a decade, but today's revisions are just a new extreme watermark. This is the biggest set of revisions since the 2020 crash.
 

Quevy

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Where has Trump been the past 6 months of reports? They were accurate until now?

The guy is such a fragile ego child, lol.
Honestly, she needs to go. If you work at a company and the boss asks you for a report. The then makes decisions on those reports. Several months later you tell him that "Oh yeah the report was completely wrong and the results were the exact opposite". Should you keep that employee?
 
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Kirun

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Honestly, she needs to go. If you work at a company and the boss asks you for a report. The then makes decisions on those reports. Several months later you tell him that "Oh yeah the report was completely wrong and the results were the exact opposite". Should you keep that employee?
Agreed.

But why didn't she have to go 6 months ago? It's clear she sucked at her job. But now that Trump's whole, "best economy in the history of economies of all-time forever" schtick got BTFO, his fragile ego is shining through.
 
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Khane

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If the jobs report doesn't show steep declines as companies, especially in tech, continue to heavily outsource and the US tech job market is literally bled dry it's all bullshit anyway.

Shit is bad out there bros, and it's a lot faster... and easier... to outsource tech jobs than it was to build factories and outsource manufacturing jobs.
 
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Lambourne

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Optics on this are just bad. Trump should at least have waited a few weeks while they do (or pretend to do) an investigation into why these numbers were off.

Firing people on the spot for reporting unfavorable data means you end up with a system where people fudge the numbers so everything looks good for the boss on paper. This was standard operating procedure in the Soviet Union. It works until it doesn't.
 

Ashin

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I don't know how your BLS measures job +/-, but if it's anything similar to how the ONS does it, it's no wonder the numbers are always crooked.

The ONS does it by phoning a limited number of businesses and asking them what's the price of these certain X items, as opposed to anything digital/mass data.

It's basically the same of how they do political polling - call up registered voters and ask them, which obviously skews it as only a certain subset of people register, and then a smaller set actually pick up the phone.
 
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dragonbr

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I don't know how your BLS measures job +/-, but if it's anything similar to how the ONS does it, it's no wonder the numbers are always crooked.

The ONS does it by phoning a limited number of businesses and asking them what's the price of these certain X items, as opposed to anything digital/mass data.

It's basically the same of how they do political polling - call up registered voters and ask them, which obviously skews it as only a certain subset of people register, and then a smaller set actually pick up the phone.
That's pretty much what it is for the initial numbers and why those should always be minimally trusted. They also try to guesstimate seasonal fluctuations to throw another random factor in.

The further you get from the initial announcement the more data they have to go on and eventually they do an annual benchmark based on tax filings which ends up being as close to the real number as possible.
 
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Falstaff

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The majority of companies that are surveyed don't turn their data in on time, hence another factor to revisions. But sure it's just a big conspiracy especially when labor market numbers took a shit right before the election, all part of the scam to elect Kamala.