Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Flobee
Vyemm Raider
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IMO to understand the market you need to change your denominator in value calculations to Gold instead of USD. With that view we've been through a ~80% correction or essentially flat depending on where you measure from. So essentially the Great Depression, just papered over with money printing. Changing how you look at value helps one to understand real vs nominal returns. I tend to replace Gold with Bitcoin as a denominator but that skews things cartoonishly just due to how Bitcoin has performed against everything else.
First chart is from a year ago, but you get the idea. Worth looking at charts in the entire thread for more context.
First chart is from a year ago, but you get the idea. Worth looking at charts in the entire thread for more context.
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Asshat Foler
Chief Philosopher
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Flobee
Vyemm Raider
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$1 trillion every 100 days being added to the deficit. They are required to debase USD mathematically, so yea that's gunna make stonks boom in nominal terms, but in real terms I kind of doubt it with the exception of AI/Robotics outliers, and maybe some commodity adjacent stuff, if I had to guess. That's the entire point of the charts we just posted. Being invested is leaps and bounds better than not being invested, but if you think its making you rich you're incorrect, you're simply outperforming people who can't/don't invest
Asshat Foler
Chief Philosopher
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With gold flat that’s implying that the increase in sp500 which is backed by usd is majority inflation? I’m not as economic savvy as some of you so just trying to understand
Flobee
Vyemm Raider
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Correct, its nominal gains, not real gains. Stated another way you've basically only maintained purchasing power to some degree vs actually making a profit. SP500 gains is essentially just an indicator of how much USD has been debased since 1971
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Asshat Foler
Chief Philosopher
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Asshat Foler
Chief Philosopher
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I’ve upped my emergency fund reserves to about one year. I absolutely hate having that much money sitting in SPAXX. Are there any better ways I can take say 20-40% of it and make it work better for me? It almost seems like just putting it into SPY is a safe bet at this point but I want to hear if anyone has alternatives to SPAXX. AI says 3-6 months t-bills or brokered CDs could be a good option
Jysin
Bronze Baronet of the Realm
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SPAXX isn't terrible to park cash in, as you are getting just under 4% yield (minus fees). Better than sitting in a bank account.
You can always buy 3 month treasuries currently yielding 4.04% (no fees). The return likely drops after Fed rate cut next week though. There is a 3 & 6 month bill auction on Monday, which is probably the last time you can lock in that >4% rate, Unless Fed does something crazy.
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Asshat Foler
Chief Philosopher
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Thanks. Difference on SPAXX and treasuries doesn’t really seem worth it outside of the benefit of getting locked in, unless I’m missing something
Jysin
Bronze Baronet of the Realm
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You're not necessarily locked in. You can sell on the open market if absolutely necessary. And if we get Fed rate cuts, the underlying value of the bond will increase.
(Inverse relationship price vs yield)