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Sanrith Descartes

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Can't decide if today will be a good day to initiate my rollover from my TSP to Vanguard.

The 2-3 week expected timeframe where the money is out of the market gives me so much anxiety.
gene hackman flip a coin GIF
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Sold all of my MA positions. Even my taxable ones. I like the stock, but underperforming the S&P for the last 5 years is no bueno. I should have sold HD as well, and will most likely regret not selling it before the FED today. Depending on today's outcome, I don't see HD surviving in my portfolio the next week or two.
 

Haus

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I'm struggling right now as the single largest position I own, has essentially just barely beat the S&P so far this year. Pragmatic Haus Brain has been nagging at me to diversify out of it for a while, but Nostalgic Haus Brain remembers how before this year it's seriously outperformed in many regards. Wondering how long until I accept the plateau is real and move, or would there be any really good place to move to?
 

Rangoth

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I'm struggling right now as the single largest position I own, has essentially just barely beat the S&P so far this year. Pragmatic Haus Brain has been nagging at me to diversify out of it for a while, but Nostalgic Haus Brain remembers how before this year it's seriously outperformed in many regards. Wondering how long until I accept the plateau is real and move, or would there be any really good place to move to?

If you look at Sanrith Descartes Sanrith Descartes little excel(which of course isnt gospel) only 5ish really crushed it. The rest beat SPY but not by much and many missed it.....over a 5 year time gap. I think that was his point(dont wanna speak for him).

When you see a major brand get beat up a bit, it may absolutely be a good time to jump back it as returns to normalcy or old highs. And yet it may not be worth holding past that return to normal window. A good way to get a better return than SPY over a shorter(3-6month?) window. But if you held it for 3 years it may just be right back where it started.

I make short plays when I have time, things like weekly options on trend lines, etc, but most of my plays are long term as in 6 month+ on things I hope for a big win on. *typically* you can sell for almost what you paid 3 months in unless it really moves against you.
 
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Haus

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If you look at Sanrith Descartes Sanrith Descartes little excel(which of course isnt gospel) only 5ish really crushed it. The rest beat SPY but not by much and many missed it.....over a 5 year time gap. I think that was his point(dont wanna speak for him).

When you see a major brand get beat up a bit, it may absolutely be a good time to jump back it as returns to normalcy or old highs. And yet it may not be worth holding past that return to normal window. A good way to get a better return than SPY over a shorter(3-6month?) window. But if you held it for 3 years it may just be right back where it started.

I make short plays when I have time, things like weekly options on trend lines, etc, but most of my plays are long term as in 6 month+ on things I hope for a big win on. *typically* you can sell for almost what you paid 3 months in unless it really moves against you.
In my case, and trying to be careful as to not dox myself more than I have, my company has done to the order of 110% better than the S&P since the Covid crash in 2020, but like many companies more of that outperformance came in 2023 and 2024. 2020-2023, were still outperforming, but not by as much, 2025 it's a dead heat between us and the S&P.
 
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Gravel

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Just do it. You'll probably lose out on a little no matter when you do it, but TSP is so meh and unresponsive. It's great for retards, but I'd roll it over to something else the day I left the government.
Oddly, I have 80% C and 20% S and it outperforms my VTSAX pretty well.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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If you look at Sanrith Descartes Sanrith Descartes little excel(which of course isnt gospel) only 5ish really crushed it. The rest beat SPY but not by much and many missed it.....over a 5 year time gap. I think that was his point(dont wanna speak for him).

When you see a major brand get beat up a bit, it may absolutely be a good time to jump back it as returns to normalcy or old highs. And yet it may not be worth holding past that return to normal window. A good way to get a better return than SPY over a shorter(3-6month?) window. But if you held it for 3 years it may just be right back where it started.

I make short plays when I have time, things like weekly options on trend lines, etc, but most of my plays are long term as in 6 month+ on things I hope for a big win on. *typically* you can sell for almost what you paid 3 months in unless it really moves against you.
This is not a bad strat. Stick with blue chips, buy when they get oversold, and sell when they return to peaks. Rinse and repeat.
 
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Jysin

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Fed upgraded growth projections for 2025 and 2026, yet INCREASE projection of 2025 RATE CUTS.

Make it make sense!!
 
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Furry

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Oddly, I have 80% C and 20% S and it outperforms my VTSAX pretty well.
Total market is usually a safe bet. It’s expected that s and c will outperform it in good markets, and the market is good most of the time. I really wouldn't recommend total market to most people.

And hells yea, my limit price hit while I was out doing errands. My brand new brokerage account is up 30 cents on the day. Thanks fed. I'mma be rich any day now.
 
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Gravel

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Total market is usually a safe bet. It’s expected that s and c will outperform it in good markets, and the market is good most of the time. I really wouldn't recommend total market to most people.

And hells yea, my limit price hit while I was out doing errands. My brand new brokerage account is up 30 cents on the day. Thanks fed. I'mma be rich any day now.
Yeah, thinking I'll move over to an S&P index instead of total market. It does the same thing (self cleansing), but eliminates all the small caps that don't do shit anyway.

Initiated the transfer just now, although I thought I could do the traditional and Roth same day, but looks like I can only have one pending action.

So now I've got a large sum that should get sold off tomorrow, and then sit in limbo for 10-14 days.