Investing General Discussion

Cad

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Gravel said:
Would it be remiss if I suggested all the MSTR and IBIT shit weren't in the crypto thread? Like, sure, they're traded like equities, but these are essentially just crypto.

And anytime I'm not paying 100% attention to whatever charting shit you all use it sounds like you're talking the broader market and not shitcoins.
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I usually spend a few minutes per post of his trying to google and figure out what he's talking about, but generally learn a new word or concept here and there. I'm not ashamed to admit half the time I have no idea what he's talking about.
 
Synj

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Gravel said:
Would it be remiss if I suggested all the MSTR and IBIT shit weren't in the crypto thread? Like, sure, they're traded like equities, but these are essentially just crypto.

And anytime I'm not paying 100% attention to whatever charting shit you all use it sounds like you're talking the broader market and not shitcoins.
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Blazin

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Outflows continue from ETFs .

It's not a broad market fear that has people positioning out of bitcoin, I don't like to get too caught up on the why of things but still interesting to ponder the change. I think it needs to be kept in perspective, We had 70B go in having 3B come out is not doomsday but the persistence of it for weeks now, guessing the bottom here is really asking when does this outflow stop or at what price can it attract new money.
 
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Blazin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Looks like the BTC infantry digging in at the $90k line to defend again.
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I think the broader algo market pump with PCE saved it this morning, the moment that energy was gone was right back to selling.

This morning open is another perfect example of WTF is up , the market is big green risk on and IBIT was down 1-2%, on a moment we were risk on. It got some of the energy but the underperformance to other risk assets is pretty stark.
 
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Tmac

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Blazin said:
I think the broader algo market pump with PCE saved it this morning, the moment that energy was gone was right back to selling.

This morning open is another perfect example of WTF is up , the market is big green risk on and IBIT was down 1-2%, on at a moment we were risk on. It got some of the energy but the underperformance to other risk assets is pretty stark.
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What are the other major risk assets?
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Had an interesting convo with my brother-in-law last night. He is a high wealth individual. Talking investing and markets with him. He used to be a plebe like us.

He mentioned getting in to positions with SpaceX and OpenAI. I mention it as just anecdotal evidence of the difference between options for one tier of investors vs the rest of us. He has the wealth level to be able to buy in to private companies like those unlike the vast majority of us.

Not a commentary on whether or not those are good investments.
 
Blazin

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Side stepped a big one had way too much in that trade to ignore, sometimes I think posting helps me to stick to discipline and not ignore when the chart is telling me that probabilities in my favor were declining as writing it out helps think through things. I super wanted it to go up and I was in bigly. Hope is not a trading strategy. My point is that I was wrong, my bullish trade was deteriorating and rather than let it turn into a loss I accepted the trade was wrong.

Now that trade is over its no more, you don't make decisions now based on what you did previously. I'll re enter the trade if I see a setup I think probability is in my favor.

Things can change quickly when your tracking 15m 1hr candles. The daily chart says regardless of what is seen on the 15m and 1hr to be cautious.

I think the timeframe you are trading on matters to how you respond to things, long term investing the Daily chart is the short term time frame, anything less is ignored. When I'm swing trading to ignore a 1hr chart can be highly perilous
 
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Blazin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Had an interesting convo with my brother-in-law last night. He is a high wealth individual. Talking investing and markets with him. He used to be a plebe like us.

He mentioned getting in to positions with SpaceX and OpenAI. I mention it as just anecdotal evidence of the difference between options for one tier of investors vs the rest of us. He has the wealth level to be able to buy in to private companies like those unlike the vast majority of us.

Not a commentary on whether or not those are good investments.
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Little bit of a PITA but you can invest in ARKVX and you love cathy. SpaceX, OpenAI, X AI neuralink anthropic. Access to a lot of the names people feel left out of which is probably all your rich friend is doing. Some of the brokerages have closed funds that us poor people aren't given access to, but very very few are being given direct share access but you really don't want to look at the management fees.
 
Cad

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Blazin said:
Little bit of a PITA but you can invest in ARKVX and you love cathy. SpaceX, OpenAI, X AI neuralink anthropic. Access to a lot of the names people feel left out of which is probably all your rich friend is doing. Some of the brokerages have closed funds that us poor people aren't given access to, but very very few are being given direct share access but you really don't want to look at the management fees.
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Private investing like this seems like high risk high reward, you are off in the wild west where knowing people and trusting people becomes really important. You won't have the information needed to really evaluate the investment, so you just have to trust the people you're investing with. There's guys at my firm that are doing these apartment renovation and resale deals with like a 4-5 year time horizon, they buy some cracked out apartment complex, renovate it, get better tenants in, get the section 8 out, slap some paint on, and then try to resell it. They got a management company that has done it before and knows what they're doing.

But they want a million dollars as a minimum investment, they're doing $10-20M deals. And you don't get any of your money back and you can't access it for the 4-5 year time horizon. The contracts look solid and as an investor you have an interest in the apartment complex so they can't ice you out, but anytime you're dealing with a private deal like this it seems to me like it's all handshakes and trust and that scares me because people suck.
 
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Blazin

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Cad said:
Private investing like this seems like high risk high reward, you are off in the wild west where knowing people and trusting people becomes really important. You won't have the information needed to really evaluate the investment, so you just have to trust the people you're investing with. There's guys at my firm that are doing these apartment renovation and resale deals with like a 4-5 year time horizon, they buy some cracked out apartment complex, renovate it, get better tenants in, get the section 8 out, slap some paint on, and then try to resell it. They got a management company that has done it before and knows what they're doing.

But they want a million dollars as a minimum investment, they're doing $10-20M deals. And you don't get any of your money back and you can't access it for the 4-5 year time horizon. The contracts look solid and as an investor you have an interest in the apartment complex so they can't ice you out, but anytime you're dealing with a private deal like this it seems to me like it's all handshakes and trust and that scares me because people suck.
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I'm in such a deal and yes much less liquid, less control, and I only do it for the exact reason you are saying. I know the people involved and trust them. It's a 5 year minimum commitment. I like it for the diversification and I like to have investments that I'm not thinking about tick for tick.
 
Cad

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Blazin said:
I'm in such a deal and yes much less liquid, less control, and I only do it for the exact reason you are saying. I know the people involved and trust them. It's a 5 year minimum commitment. I like it for the diversification and I like to have investments that I'm not thinking about tick for tick.
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Have you completed any of the deals? The numbers they are bandying about are like 80-100% return after 5 years. Which seems good but also seems to rely a lot on continued rent growth which I'm not sure they can predict.
 
Blazin

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Cad said:
Have you completed any of the deals? The numbers they are bandying about are like 80-100% return after 5 years. Which seems good but also seems to rely a lot on continued rent growth which I'm not sure they can predict.
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Meaning to the point of exit? No, see RE thread, one I entered this year is the first time for me owning RE not as the sole owner. I've known the team for a while but I'm picky about the property and some of them just not something I wanted as I'm not looking to flip but rather do the opposite my intent with this one is to buy out the flipping parties at our cash out intervals. Was a $60M complex, newer, and I'm quite bullish on its location and future prospects. We can PM if you want more details, don't want to overdue public sharing.
 
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