Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Furry
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I was listening to 3 women do a round table discussion of the economy on the radio driving home last night. They all agreed that huge inflation and the stock market collapsing were guaranteed in 2026, because we were really overdue with no collapse since 2008 or whatever (hello 2020?). Two of them recommended selling everything and holding cash and bonds to avoid the effects of inflation, one recommended getting tons of precious metals.
They said lots of stupid stuff, but the hold cash to avoid inflation one stuck in my memory as the stupidest.
Khane
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Furry
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Looking at end of year is a mistake sometimes and misses the fact that bear markets can be short lived.
Like last year was like a +17% year, but you forget we dumped by about 12% in February/March. Or December 2021 through October 2022 we were down almost 25%. Yes, we recovered from the covid drop, just like we've recovered from every other drop. But in the moment when it lost 25% it sure didn't feel like we'd be at more than double that number in 5 years.
In fact, I was just reading about Japan and how their massive drop is actually misleading because the run up to that very top was very steep, and also just happened to hit at the very end of the year. If it had happened in July it wouldn't look nearly as bad when you go back and look at charts.
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Moving at such a high seems like an uber risky move. Kind of buy high and sell low but make it up in bulk kind of a deal. I don't own any silver but have kind of been watching for a while just to see what was going to happen. I used to buy silver rounds pretty often but stopped almost 15 years ago, that really wasn't investment type stuff. Just stuff I liked having.
Khane
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He said "collapse". I wouldn't really qualify what happened in 2020 a collapse. It was a knee-jerk reaction to a global pandemic that was incredibly short lived.
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Sure. Two dumb broads saying "a market collapse is guaranteed to happen this year" is retarded. You responded saying 2020 wasn't a collapse because overall the year was up 18%. What exactly do you call a "collapse" then?
Khane
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2008 will be a topic of discussion probably forever. They made movies about it, its a topic in financial/business courses, and a case study in general.
2020 will be talked about for years and will be a case study, but not because of anything related to the stock market. Nobody will be making movies about the "stock collapse" or leadup and aftermath thereof of 2020.
2020 will be talked about for years and will be a case study, but not because of anything related to the stock market. Nobody will be making movies about the "stock collapse" or leadup and aftermath thereof of 2020.
Arden
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Not sure there are hard fast rules or definitions for this stuff, but your list is pretty good imo.
Like I said, I think for it to be a "collapse" it needs to result in fundamental structural changes. Great depressions clearly qualify. You could definitely argue that 2008 caused deep structural changes to markets, while 2020 largely did not.
To be a "collapse" it has to be a pretty big deal, i'd think. The Roman Empire had numerous serious glitches in its history, but it only collapsed once.
Then again, I'm sure you could find academics willing to argue the Roman Empire actually had multiple collapses, so
