Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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M Power
Silver Squire
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When their target demographic isn't getting anymore free gubmint checks in the mail of course sales will decline. Their only popular item currently is an overpriced sweatsuit.
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Not saying you are wrong but has this been reported anywhere? As far as I understand, the markets flipped yesterday purely on the headline of Iran saying they were open to a deal. The deal they are asking for is reparations, control of the strait, assurance of no future attacks, and for the US to mostly pull out of opposing gulf states. This was pretty much the same thing they asked for in previous weeks.
The odds of really any of those things happening are just as probable of them agreeing to the US 15 point plan.
M Power
Silver Squire
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That's the point of a deal. Both sides come to an agreement of some sort. I wouldn't expect most of the stuff to be agreed to. Trump is going to leave the Gulf because it's hurting midterms and his approval rating. China is getting hurt from the Strait shutting down even if Iran lets a few ships through. None of this helps anyone except Russia.
Not quite sure I understand what the purpose of that national address was meant for while heading into an extended market closed weekend.
I still go back to the assumption that if the US declares mission accomplished and moves attention to their next target; Iran is going to continue to weaponize the strait going forward. Either by forcing a toll or just straight up denying access based on which gulf state the tanker is originating from.
These things sort of contradict each other. If he's getting the yips and is looking to pull back then there isnt much leverage for Iran to come to the table on anything.
I still go back to the assumption that if the US declares mission accomplished and moves attention to their next target; Iran is going to continue to weaponize the strait going forward. Either by forcing a toll or just straight up denying access based on which gulf state the tanker is originating from.
Flobee
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Not to veer too far into politics, but my 2c on this:
The end goal here is US ceding their role as a global power and moving into regional control of N and S America, not because we want to, but because we have to. GCC will be expected to negotiate and control the straight and the area in general. Iran will be brought back into global trade, likely due to leverage over the straight and not on the Dollar. Middle east forever conflicts are likely going to end soon. China shares control of Asia w/ Russia, while they get Africa and strong grip on Middle east. Russia ends up holding sway over Europe as the dominate energy power of the region. If you look at the players on the board this is all kind of obvious, we're just going through the motions to move from where we are to where we're going to be. US empire is done, we're just negotiating our exit. There are still live players trying to prevent this and cling to the old power structures... but I think that game is nearly played out at this point. If we avoid WW3 I think that's a sign that faction has lost.
All that said I believe (hope tbh) Trump is making the best deal he can with the cards he has which aren't great. Things are as bad or worse for the entire West on a number of fronts and we're probably going to spend the next decade trying to repair the damage thats been caused from ~60 years of bad policy. IMO financial markets are sniffing this out, deal is probably imminent. The end result of all of this is a ton of $ creation so nobody with sense wants to be in cash when that happens, just a lot of trying to time when we bottom. I'd guess another nice big dip comes before we start to grind out of this momentum but who knows. I believe the above is directionally correct but the timing is a complete unknown and there is always room for something to go sideways and change the trajectory.
TLDR - number go up, but maybe down first, or maybe up first then down. Thank you for your attention on this matter
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M Power
Silver Squire
- 201
- 181
I guess it's possible you bomb them so badly that Israel can just take over and maintain whatever is necessary to keep them in the stone age.
M Power
Silver Squire
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- 181
Market went down because of stupid Trump speech, then went back up later today due to Oman having Iran come to the table about a deal on the Strait.
Like I said, Iran is going to back down on the Strait. There is too much heat globally for them to actually lock it down forever. Ships have been getting through fine for the last few weeks it's just very few at a time.
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