Investing General Discussion

They've had at least 5 years with no growth, their icon status will only carry them for so long until it doesn't

Fogel said:

They've had at least 5 years with no growth, their icon status will only carry them for so long until it doesn't

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When their target demographic isn't getting anymore free gubmint checks in the mail of course sales will decline. Their only popular item currently is an overpriced sweatsuit.

M Power said:

Nike is lying. Nike has been down way before the Iran war. China doesn't give a shit about Nike anymore. Neither does the U.S. consumer. It's a brand in the dumps.

The reason people think the Iran shit is coming to an end is daddy China is telling Iran quit the shit and make a deal.

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Not saying you are wrong but has this been reported anywhere? As far as I understand, the markets flipped yesterday purely on the headline of Iran saying they were open to a deal. The deal they are asking for is reparations, control of the strait, assurance of no future attacks, and for the US to mostly pull out of opposing gulf states. This was pretty much the same thing they asked for in previous weeks.

The odds of really any of those things happening are just as probable of them agreeing to the US 15 point plan.

dragonbr said:

Not saying you are wrong but has this been reported anywhere? As far as I understand, the markets flipped yesterday purely on the headline of Iran saying they were open to a deal. The deal they are asking for is reparations, control of the strait, assurance of no future attacks, and for the US to mostly pull out of opposing gulf states. This was pretty much the same thing they asked for in previous weeks.

The odds of really any of those things happening are just as probable of them agreeing to the US 15 point plan.

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That's the point of a deal. Both sides come to an agreement of some sort. I wouldn't expect most of the stuff to be agreed to. Trump is going to leave the Gulf because it's hurting midterms and his approval rating. China is getting hurt from the Strait shutting down even if Iran lets a few ships through. None of this helps anyone except Russia.

Not quite sure I understand what the purpose of that national address was meant for while heading into an extended market closed weekend.

M Power said:

That's the point of a deal. Both sides come to an agreement of some sort. I wouldn't expect most of the stuff to be agreed to. Trump is going to leave the Gulf because it's hurting midterms and his approval rating. China is getting hurt from the Strait shutting down even if Iran lets a few ships through. None of this helps anyone except Russia.

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These things sort of contradict each other. If he's getting the yips and is looking to pull back then there isnt much leverage for Iran to come to the table on anything.

I still go back to the assumption that if the US declares mission accomplished and moves attention to their next target; Iran is going to continue to weaponize the strait going forward. Either by forcing a toll or just straight up denying access based on which gulf state the tanker is originating from.

dragonbr said:

Not quite sure I understand what the purpose of that national address was meant for while heading into an extended market closed weekend.


These things sort of contradict each other. If he's getting the yips and is looking to pull back then there isnt much leverage for Iran to come to the table on anything.

I still go back to the assumption that if the US declares mission accomplished and moves attention to their next target; Iran is going to continue to weaponize the strait going forward. Either by forcing a toll or just straight up denying access based on which gulf state the tanker is originating from.

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Not to veer too far into politics, but my 2c on this:

The end goal here is US ceding their role as a global power and moving into regional control of N and S America, not because we want to, but because we have to. GCC will be expected to negotiate and control the straight and the area in general. Iran will be brought back into global trade, likely due to leverage over the straight and not on the Dollar. Middle east forever conflicts are likely going to end soon. China shares control of Asia w/ Russia, while they get Africa and strong grip on Middle east. Russia ends up holding sway over Europe as the dominate energy power of the region. If you look at the players on the board this is all kind of obvious, we're just going through the motions to move from where we are to where we're going to be. US empire is done, we're just negotiating our exit. There are still live players trying to prevent this and cling to the old power structures... but I think that game is nearly played out at this point. If we avoid WW3 I think that's a sign that faction has lost.

All that said I believe (hope tbh) Trump is making the best deal he can with the cards he has which aren't great. Things are as bad or worse for the entire West on a number of fronts and we're probably going to spend the next decade trying to repair the damage thats been caused from ~60 years of bad policy. IMO financial markets are sniffing this out, deal is probably imminent. The end result of all of this is a ton of $ creation so nobody with sense wants to be in cash when that happens, just a lot of trying to time when we bottom. I'd guess another nice big dip comes before we start to grind out of this momentum but who knows. I believe the above is directionally correct but the timing is a complete unknown and there is always room for something to go sideways and change the trajectory.

TLDR - number go up, but maybe down first, or maybe up first then down. Thank you for your attention on this matter

dragonbr said:

I still go back to the assumption that if the US declares mission accomplished and moves attention to their next target; Iran is going to continue to weaponize the strait going forward. Either by forcing a toll or just straight up denying access based on which gulf state the tanker is originating from.

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I guess it's possible you bomb them so badly that Israel can just take over and maintain whatever is necessary to keep them in the stone age.

Cad said:

Market is more or less flat though even with oil up at $111.

Makes no sense.

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Market went down because of stupid Trump speech, then went back up later today due to Oman having Iran come to the table about a deal on the Strait.
Like I said, Iran is going to back down on the Strait. There is too much heat globally for them to actually lock it down forever. Ships have been getting through fine for the last few weeks it's just very few at a time.

Another day, another suspicious jobs report.

AI is now creating American jobs!

Haus said:

As for Oil, there seems to be a wide variation on takes. As long as Iran limits flow, that will introduce inherent upward pressure. Supposed "industry experts" on Bloomberg today were saying if the strait is still essentially shut down in 2 weeks Oil will reach $150 before it goes down. Not sure how seriously to take that. But I could imagine it happening. Also, if the oil supply shock of Covid was any indicator, gas prices will drift down once this is over, but they're not going to fast crash back to pre-war levels.

As for the market, the S&P had a straight up crappy Q1. I'm hearing a number of people saying it's oversold, and what we're seeing is a natural push to get back to an equilibrium, but that seems off to me.

I agree that the jobs report , now a days, is pretty damn useless. And any effect the revision will have is muted because of the truism that "Everybody reads the headline, nobody reads the retraction".

My "Trend head" really wants to say we're near a lul, near term low and it's time to value shop in the market. But my "worst case scenario" brain is counseling to "keep powder dry"

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S&P 500 is 100% oversold. The whole market is oversold to be honest. The majority of the index shouldn't be falling that much over the Iran issue and they continue to gain on quarterly financials. Nvidia makes new records every quarter and somehow moron "analysts" still have problems and the stock goes down for a few days. It's stupid but it has created a great buying opportunity.

If I had to guess why there is an issue (other than Iran stupidity) it's private credit industry getting smoked and having to cash out their scared (rightfully) customers. Majority of private credit is in software and financials and that has the AI scare killing it. I'm still not bought on AI killing the SaaS industry but private credit has been doing sketchy shit for too long so good riddance if they fumble. What's interesting is the financial sector was on a tear until recently. Much higher than tech.