Investing General Discussion

Flobee

Flobee

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Haus said:
I'm watching the Warsh confirmation hearing right now. I will say as to Trump's comments. As has been hammered ad nauseum in the politics threads, he's gonna say what he's gonna say...

Interesting take that I find actually refreshing if Warsh can REALLY do the Fed Reserve job to these statements he made:
  • The fed shouldn't be talking about what they want interest rates at during the next quarter, half or year. Interest rates need to be set now to what they need to be to achieve the mandate.
  • The fed maintaining a large balance sheet is taking the fed out of monetary policy and into fiscal policy which is counterproductive and bad. The balance sheet should only be a tool leveraged in extreme emergencies, and it should be wound down safely to zero when not in an emergency.
With that said, we also all know he's going to say whatever he needs to get confirmed. He also denied that he made any promises regarding interest rates to Trump even thought Trump has outright said he would only support a fed chair who would deliver rate cuts.
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Warsh to his credit has been publicly consistent on his stances regarding Fed policy, balance sheet, etc.

I still expect him to print an insane amount of $$$, but that will be a break with his career rhetoric. If he does what he says he wants to do we're in for some short term pain for sure IMO
 
Haus

Haus

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Flobee said:
Warsh to his credit has been publicly consistent on his stances regarding Fed policy, balance sheet, etc.

I still expect him to print an insane amount of $$$, but that will be a break with his career rhetoric. If he does what he says he wants to do we're in for some short term pain for sure IMO
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At least he tried to set the stage for some of that. He mentioned that we've built a huge Fed Balance Sheet over the last 18 years, and it's going to take a lot longer than 18 minutes to fix that. But said it needed to be done, and he'd have to work with the Treasury to make that happen.
 
Flobee

Flobee

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Haus said:
At least he tried to set the stage for some of that. He mentioned that we've built a huge Fed Balance Sheet over the last 18 years, and it's going to take a lot longer than 18 minutes to fix that. But said it needed to be done, and he'd have to work with the Treasury to make that happen.
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I agree with what he's saying but...

La Believe GIF
 
Haus

Haus

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Flobee said:
I agree with what he's saying but...

La Believe GIF
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That fair until he either proves or disproves his commitments. But as mentioned elsewhere, you can go back in his history and the majority of what he's said is completely consistent with his previous stated beliefs.
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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Cad said:
Dude you are a lot braver than me! Good show.
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Strangely in something wild like this, I feel safer in premarket where it cant vol halt and really fuck you over by gapping $100s.

It closed at highs of day. It also had a monster intraday swing from a low of $570 to nearly $770!

Until the float lockup is flushed out, there is still upside risk.
 
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Cad

Sheriff Cad

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Jysin said:
Strangely in something wild like this, I feel safer in premarket where it cant vol halt and really fuck you over by gapping $100s.

It closed at highs of day. It also had a monster intraday swing from a low of $570 to nearly $770!

Until the share lockup is flushed out, there is still upside risk.
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I don't feel like I understand those situations well enough to know when it's getting silly and when it's an opportunity. So it all seems scary to me because I can't see the windows. In that case, the best game is not to play.
 
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Quevy

Quevy

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Cad said:
Whats up with Intel?
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Strong second quarter forecast and good first quarter performance.

ANALYST COMMENTARY

  • Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kunjan Sobhani
    • The results and forecast “were driven by strong server CPU demand, improved supply and pricing, with Xeon momentum supporting a firmer 2H setup”
    • “Supply constraints are easing but still limit full demand capture, while pricing tailwinds across server and client CPUs should extend into 2Q”
    • Click here for the report
  • Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis (raised to outperform from inline, PT set to $111)
    • Upgrade comes as “the fastest growing AI workloads need a lot more CPUs, and might even flip the CPU:GPU ratio from 1:8 to 8:1”
    • The company’s new CEO fixed the balance sheet and “is executing on a strategy that appears to have put INTC back on the competitive track”
  • Citi analyst Atif Malik (raised to buy from neutral, PT $95)
    • Upgrade reflects “improving agentic AI driven CPU demand which should lift all the CPU suppliers’ sales in the coming years”
    • “Moreover, execution on 18A/14A manufacturing yields is tracking better than expectations, and Intel should be a major beneficiary of Elon Musk initiative to support Terafab”
  • JPMorgan Harlan Sur (underweight, PT to $45 from $35)
    • Intel reported a strong March quarter beat across the report driven by better-than-expected supply availability
    • While server CPU is in a structural upcycle extending into 2027, still expect Intel “to cede share over the next 12-18 months”
  • Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse (neutral, PT $90)
    • While expectations were high coming into the print, both the March quarter results and June quarter forecast “came in better than expected”
    • Intel also “highlighted expectations for sustained above-seasonal growth” into second half of 2026
  • Emarketer
    • “These results make Intel’s turnaround look less like a hope-fueled blip and more like a steadier longer-term trajectory,” and are “the kind of report that the bulls needed to justify a stock that’s soared over the past year, with data center momentum and foundry progress both pointing in the right direction”
  • Vital Knowledge
    • The results show “healthy underlying demand, improved supply, and strong execution as the new CEO continues to engineer an impressive turnaround”
    • The company’s “qualitative tone is bullish on AI, especially with regards to the growing prominence of the CPU, their traditional bread-and-butter”
SECOND-QUARTER FORECAST

  • Sees revenue $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion, estimate $13.04 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
  • Sees adjusted EPS 20c, estimate 8.6c
  • Sees adjusted gross margin 39%, estimate 36.5%
  • Sees adjusted tax rate 11%, estimate 11.3%
FIRST-QUARTER RESULTS

  • Revenue $13.58 billion, +7.2% y/y, estimate $12.36 billion
  • Intel Products revenue $12.78 billion, +8.7% y/y, estimate $11.53 billion
    • Client Computing revenue $7.73 billion, +1.3% y/y, estimate $7.1 billion
    • Datacenter & AI revenue $5.05 billion, +22% y/y, estimate $4.41 billion
  • Intel Foundry revenue $5.42 billion, +16% y/y, estimate $4.81 billion
  • All Other revenue $628 million, -33% y/y, estimate $605.3 million
  • Intersegment eliminations revenue -$5.25 billion, -12% y/y
  • Adjusted EPS 29c vs. 13c y/y, estimate 1.0c
  • Adjusted gross margin 41% vs. 39.2% y/y, estimate 34.5%
  • R&D expenses $3.38 billion, -7.3% y/y, estimate $3.18 billion
  • Adjusted operating income $1.67 billion vs. $690 million y/y, estimate $386.2 million
    • Adjusted operating margin 12.3% vs. 5.4% y/y, estimate 3.08%
COMMENTARY AND CONTEXT

  • “We remain focused on maximizing our factory network to improve available supply and meet our customers’ needs throughout the year,” CFO David Zinsner said
  • Generated $1.1 billion in cash from operations in 1Q
  • “The next wave of AI will bring intelligence closer to the end user, moving from foundational models to inference to agentic. This shift is significantly increasing the need for Intel’s CPUs and wafer and advanced packaging offerings,” CEO Lip-Bu Tan said
NOTE

  • For Bloomberg Consensus estimates used in this story see: INTC Equity MODL
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ToeMissile

ToeMissile

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Well I don
M Power said:
I'd love to do this but openclaw scares me from all the horror stories I've heard on security.
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For sure, It has it's own mini PC, installed in a docker container, doesn't have access to any personal email accounts. I'm pretty careful to not give it access to PPI that can't be grabbed from typical public records. I use gemini as the primary agent and have ollama/Gemma 4 running on my gaming PC to handle as much inference as I can locally for privacy as well as keeping costs down.

Cad said:
Do you trust that enough to move $100k around?
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Fuck no, that's a paper account. And I don't want to be murdered by my wife.

If I was going to mess around with real money it would be a small amount like the $500 I told it to use. I haven't done much research on people using openclaw or other agents to trade, but what I have seen was basically "it's still too dumb". I just figured it would be fun to set up and see what happened.
 
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