Investing General Discussion

Kithani

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Drunk on vacation is a great way to learn they've cured cancer.

I know what you mean, though. They're constantly coming out with these incredible headlines about cancer treatments that when you dig into it don't amount too much.

This one is definitely different.
Did they release any data to show how different this one is
 

Furry

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Did they release any data to show how different this one is

Data points with links to the clinical trials. Looks promising on a skim.
 
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Fogel

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SpaceX down 6% on the next big lock up expiration. Will be interesting to see if it holds the 130 level. The next bottom after that is 108. I've been selling puts around 105-110. All the lock ups after this are much smaller until Q3 earnings at least.
 

Arden

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SpaceX down 6% on the next big lock up expiration. Will be interesting to see if it holds the 130 level. The next bottom after that is 108. I've been selling puts around 105-110. All the lock ups after this are much smaller until Q3 earnings at least.
Just finished the last of my buying. Think my avg price is around 120.
 

Haus

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Did they release any data to show how different this one is
Hearing a summary of how this thing works essentially it is this :
  1. You get diagnosed with Melanoma
  2. They take a sample of the cancer from you
  3. Since it's based on your genetic they have to gene sequence it.
  4. Look at that compared to your regular genetics and look for markers that differentiate the cancer
  5. Build a custom mRNA vaccine based on those specific markers to target your specific cancer
  6. Deliver it, and couple it with a known immuno-booster to amp up it's behavior
  7. Effectively attacks the melanoma
Sounds pretty cool. Unfortunately it also also sounds suspiciously close to the sythensized cancer/virus scenario from the AI Doomsday scenario outlined in the book "If Anyone Builds it, Everyone Dies"
 
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Aldarion

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Dont worry I'm sure they wouldnt use AI to design the sequences, that sounds risky



(*they'll 100% use AI to design the sequences)
 

Sheriff Cad

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Hearing a summary of how this thing works essentially it is this :
  1. You get diagnosed with Melanoma
  2. They take a sample of the cancer from you
  3. Since it's based on your genetic they have to gene sequence it.
  4. Look at that compared to your regular genetics and look for markers that differentiate the cancer
  5. Build a custom mRNA vaccine based on those specific markers to target your specific cancer
  6. Deliver it, and couple it with a known immuno-booster to amp up it's behavior
  7. Effectively attacks the melanoma
Sounds pretty cool. Unfortunately it also also sounds suspiciously close to the sythensized cancer/virus scenario from the AI Doomsday scenario outlined in the book "If Anyone Builds it, Everyone Dies"
It's not too different than how CAR-T therapy is working now.

With CAR-T, they remove T-cells from the cancer patient, get them to divide in the lab and then use a viral vector to reprogram the DNA of the T-cells to attack your specific cancer. Then they put those reprogrammed T-cells back into you and your immune system goes wild attacking the cancer.

Sounds like two approaches to getting your immune system to attack the cancer.
 
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Kithani

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It's not too different than how CAR-T therapy is working now.

With CAR-T, they remove T-cells from the cancer patient, get them to divide in the lab and then use a viral vector to reprogram the DNA of the T-cells to attack your specific cancer. Then they put those reprogrammed T-cells back into you and your immune system goes wild attacking the cancer.

Sounds like two approaches to getting your immune system to attack the cancer.
Pricing will be interesting.

If you moved CAR-T to first line for stage 3 melanoma I don’t even want to do the math on how much it would cost annually lol

edit: about $4 billion, or the low price of 2 B-2 bombers. Chump change!
 

Sheriff Cad

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Pricing will be interesting.

If you moved CAR-T to first line for stage 3 melanoma I don’t even want to do the math on how much it would cost annually lol

edit: about $4 billion, or the low price of 2 B-2 bombers. Chump change!
Everything is expensive at first and gets cheaper over time, like your mom.
 
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Haus

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So Treasury is dropping $1T on the bond market to suppress rates, and the bond market is treating it like a cat that maintains eye contact with you while pissing in your shoes.... am I interpreting this correctly?
 
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Arden

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So Treasury is dropping $1T on the bond market to suppress rates, and the bond market is treating it like a cat that maintains eye contact with you while pissing in your shoes.... am I interpreting this correctly?


Obligatory

Breaking Bad Train GIF
 

Haus

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So once again I come for an opinion from those who are deeper on these stock strategy topics than I am..

I have been working with an actual professional financial planner and they brought up one tool they wanted to talk about that made my "something seems fucky here" sense go off.

A managed fund they run to essentially operate like an index fund with similar returns while also maximizing a tax loss farming strategy to bring down overall tax obligation for other moves I make which will generate large capital gains hits. Is this a real thing? It's being recommended by a large, well known, name in financial planning, but just seems like some slightly dodgy fuckery going on. I'm probably going to be moving a large amount of capital out of an over-concentrated position over the next 2-4 years, so the idea here was to play a strategy of generating and harvesting tax losses to offset as much of the gains as possible. But in my head that means losing a ton of money??
 

Sheriff Cad

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So once again I come for an opinion from those who are deeper on these stock strategy topics than I am..

I have been working with an actual professional financial planner and they brought up one tool they wanted to talk about that made my "something seems fucky here" sense go off.

A managed fund they run to essentially operate like an index fund with similar returns while also maximizing a tax loss farming strategy to bring down overall tax obligation for other moves I make which will generate large capital gains hits. Is this a real thing? It's being recommended by a large, well known, name in financial planning, but just seems like some slightly dodgy fuckery going on. I'm probably going to be moving a large amount of capital out of an over-concentrated position over the next 2-4 years, so the idea here was to play a strategy of generating and harvesting tax losses to offset as much of the gains as possible. But in my head that means losing a ton of money??
Without seeing the numbers my knee-jerk reaction is it sounds like they get you on the management fee in their managed fund in order to get some perceived tax gains later - but the tax gains won't offset the management fee. But you'd have to run the numbers on that for your particular situation.

One of the reasons unmanaged index funds are so good is the like 0.01% management fee.
 
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Kithani

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How do they have a magic tax offset strategy that operates like an index fund?

“We’re going to lose you money so you can offset some gains”?
 

Haus

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Without seeing the numbers my knee-jerk reaction is it sounds like they get you on the management fee in their managed fund in order to get some perceived tax gains later - but the tax gains won't offset the management fee. But you'd have to run the numbers on that for your particular situation.

One of the reasons unmanaged index funds are so good is the like 0.01% management fee.
I agree, which is why I'm digging through their stuff right now. Just didn't know if anybody else was leveraging this strategy... Seems it's called "tax-loss harvesting via direct indexing". They manage an account and inside it they individually invest in a mix of stocks approximating an index. Then their people actively sell loss positions to harvest losses from them while keeping profitable positions. Usually performs similarly to an index, but with additional "tax harvesting" and yeah it boil down to which is greater, the overall portfolio performance + tax losses harvested versus the fee for the managers. I'm going over those numbers this coming week, they're sending those over.

All indicators are that this is a known and legal process, used by people (apparently like me) who need to find a way to lessen taxes from divestitures of large holdings. Right now it's considered one of those "It's legal, but not really the intent of the statutes" scenarios, but until they close the loophole... well.. As they say in MMOs, "Exploit early, exploit often".

I do suspect it will come down to if they save me more in taxes than I get charged in fees.
 

Gravel

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You can do tax loss harvesting on your own with a brokerage account. You don't need to pay someone a percentage of AUM to do it for you.

That said, in my opinion, it's a complete waste of time. It's something the super rich do, and for some reason people with portfolios in the millions decided was worthwhile.
 

Sheriff Cad

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I agree, which is why I'm digging through their stuff right now. Just didn't know if anybody else was leveraging this strategy... Seems it's called "tax-loss harvesting via direct indexing". They manage an account and inside it they individually invest in a mix of stocks approximating an index. Then their people actively sell loss positions to harvest losses from them while keeping profitable positions. Usually performs similarly to an index, but with additional "tax harvesting" and yeah it boil down to which is greater, the overall portfolio performance + tax losses harvested versus the fee for the managers. I'm going over those numbers this coming week, they're sending those over.

All indicators are that this is a known and legal process, used by people (apparently like me) who need to find a way to lessen taxes from divestitures of large holdings. Right now it's considered one of those "It's legal, but not really the intent of the statutes" scenarios, but until they close the loophole... well.. As they say in MMOs, "Exploit early, exploit often".

I do suspect it will come down to if they save me more in taxes than I get charged in fees.
I don't think this even works in an index fund. People ask, "why don't you just buy a weighted basket of the index yourself rather than pay the index management fee of 0.01%". And you could. But when prices change, the weighted basket of stocks the index carries also changes, and they rebalance all the time.

The reason this is great is because you do NOT get taxable events for intra-ETF trades; i.e. if the manager buys and sells stuff, you don't pay capital gains taxes (and I'm pretty sure selling at a loss doesn't get you any deductible losses either).

I'd be very interested to see the actual paperwork on this because what they're describing doesn't sound logical at all. It might save THE FUND tax money, I'm not even sure on that, but I don't see how it can be a taxable event for you to harvest losses when you didn't sell anything.
 

Haus

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I don't think this even works in an index fund. People ask, "why don't you just buy a weighted basket of the index yourself rather than pay the index management fee of 0.01%". And you could. But when prices change, the weighted basket of stocks the index carries also changes, and they rebalance all the time.

The reason this is great is because you do NOT get taxable events for intra-ETF trades; i.e. if the manager buys and sells stuff, you don't pay capital gains taxes (and I'm pretty sure selling at a loss doesn't get you any deductible losses either).

I'd be very interested to see the actual paperwork on this because what they're describing doesn't sound logical at all. It might save THE FUND tax money, I'm not even sure on that, but I don't see how it can be a taxable event for you to harvest losses when you didn't sell anything.
That's part of the structure. I'm not buying a "fund". I am funding an account, then within that account their people buy all the individual stocks , buying and selling actual individual shares, and weaving around wash sale rules. So I don't own $100k of <fund>, I own $100k of individual stocks, but managed by someone else like it was a fund.
 

Sheriff Cad

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That's part of the structure. I'm not buying a "fund". I am funding an account, then within that account their people buy all the individual stocks , buying and selling actual individual shares, and weaving around wash sale rules. So I don't own $100k of <fund>, I own $100k of individual stocks, but managed by someone else like it was a fund.
You'd get totally killed every time they rebalance the index though, when they buy and sell in the fund, you'd be getting taxable events on the gains and losses. I don't see any way that they can harvest the losses while the gains aren't taxable events. And since they can't rebalance with the index the way normal index funds do (at least not often), it seems like this would really come down to whether the management percentage swamps the tax savings, which I'm not sure how you could know.