Investing General Discussion

TJT said:

I have a few financial goals for my kids across 529s and UTMA I want to achieve before I pull the trigger. But I am pretty sure I'll hit that mark in about 3 years. I also want to get everything sorted into a Revokable Trust and purchase a property in Wyoming. Once I have all that I will be ready. This is a soft list I guess but I know all of this is very well within my reach.

I am still 50/50 on getting another similar job where I target a fully remote position and one I know I can coast in. Which is really going to be any big corporate job after a decade of grinding in startups and overemployment.

Do you have any intention of doing IDK, one case a year or something just to keep a little busy here and there?

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I still work part time just helping my law partners with things they need, I'm sort of pinch hitting if available. I don't take a draw anymore I only get paid when we get paid, so it works out for everyone.

TJT said:

I generally agree there will be some kind of evaluation bubble with AI. But I fail to see how there will be a collapse. AI is not going anywhere.

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I don't see any reason to believe that the markets will operate fundamentally differently after AI than before it. Specific companies will absolutely get murdered but thats why we own the indexes generally not trying to pick winners.

Jysin said:

Speaking of AI narrative: Anthropic released their S-1 filing today.

1H 2026 = $80B loss.

The term "catastrophic and existential risks to humanity" was used 3 times and something astounding like 30% of the entire filing was used to highlight risk.

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I'm not the financial analysis guy especially with companies that big with accounting tricks that we probably never heard of, but didn't they reach operational profitability and are making money on compute now? They still got a ways to go to net profit, but they seem like they're making more and more money off each unit of compute which is important, they can't just keep burning cash to add compute.

I saw this earlier regarding Anthropic, definitely seems like positive news on the "how does all this hardware make us money" front:

Fogel said:

I think a key difference between today and 2000 is how much higher the valuation of the top companies are now compared to then. The average EPS of the SP 500 is also much higher than then.

The nominal S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) grew from approximately $49.10 in 2000 to a trailing 12-month peak of $261.72 to $264.69 by mid-2026.

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But if you run that same number for the 26 years preceding 2000, you get:

Nominal S&P 500 EPS rose from about $8.23 in 1974 to $49.10 in 2000 on the same series that matches your $49.10 figure for 2000.

The multiple from 2000 to 2026 is actually less than the multiple from 1974 to 2000 (6x vs. 5.3x or so) meaning that EPS actually increased slower in the period you are describing. The period before, the golden age that we all want to return to, actually had a faster increase.

Gravel said:

I'm coming up on 5 years retired at the end of this week. It's gotten to the point where I forget that most people even have jobs, and I can't even picture myself working anymore (where before I could begrudgingly imagine it).

The downside however is that my age peers won't retire for another 20ish years. I was wanting to join some small groups at my church and most of them are at like 6pm or later, because everyone works. Instead I'm now hanging out with all the old people on Thursday morning at 10am. My peers are all like 70 year olds.

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I'm not really having that issue yet, but it might just be different crowds. Most of the people I know are "differently employed" not exactly 9-5 office jobs, lots of doctors and businesspeople who have odd schedules anyway.

It's also just activity dependent. I go play tennis in the middle of the day and there's a shocking number of middle aged adults also out playing. The difference is they took time off from work or are going back to work after a quick shower, while I got up at 10:30 and might read a book after tennis before we start thinking about dinner a few hours later...

It will basically be like the time you spend with a lot of people will be really critically important TO THEM because they got shit to do, but to you it's not, it's just Tuesday. Add a few more friends like that were you can hang out once a week in THEIR free time, and suddenly you got a full dance card.