Mikhail and Hodj's Political Thread
- Thread starter Araysar
- Start date
- Status
The thing is, I don't really get how the 100 door example doesn't help. Like if it were a billion doors would that work? If the odds of you getting the door right (and therefore allowing the host to leave a goat hidden rather than a car) were literally one in a billion would that make it make more sense? I don't know.
TheBeagle
JunkiesNetwork Donor
- 9,138
- 32,062
I think you need to get out more. I'm definitely going to go out and enjoy a couple beers and some foosball with some school bros tonight. It's been a helluva week.
Loser Araysar
Log Wizard
- 84,914
- 171,903
But it is 1 in 2 if someone showed you 2 lottery tickets, told you one was a winning ticket and then asked you to pick 1 of the 2.
What if they had showed you every lottery ticket that was sold, told you to pick one and then eliminated all but one ticket and (here's the important part) unless you had somehow picked the right ticket out of the millions that were sold, the one remaining would be the winning ticket. Would it still be 50/50?
hodj
Vox Populi Jihadi
- 31,673
- 18,384
Loser Araysar
Log Wizard
- 84,914
- 171,903
Are you still picking 1 ticket out of 2? Or 1 ticket out of millions?
So I tried signing up on the healthcare.gov website earlier and got a failure message and then retried and got a slightly different one (and every time after got that second message). Just checked my email: apparently an hour later the confirmation email showed up and I was able to click the link and confirm my account. Apparently it looks a little more broken than it actually is.
khalid
Unelected Mod
- 14,071
- 6,775
Asserting this doesn't make it true and Hodj has pointed out some examples of economics doing just that. You just happen to dismiss those examples and claim they aren't science. As you seem to be trying to do with any arguments against your case.
But lets say that you are right and there are no arguments against your case. Why should we believe you? Looking at the trends of history, we have exactly ZERO cases of capitalism going to communism. What we do have cases of though is capitalism going to a more controlled and softer version of capitalism. Capitalism with controls. If I wanted to extrapolate, I would say that capitalism with much more controls over corporate power and more support for income equality is what we will evolve into.
Why do you think that this will fail and instead we will have a revolt? That doesn't seem to be the trends I am seeing, and in fact many of the people you seem to be counting on to revolt for you are actually people that are perfectly fine with personal property and capitalism. For example, small farmers. These also happen to be some of the most heavily armed civilians and if anything they will be fighting against your revolt it would seem.
The first time you pick 1 out of millions. You put that one in your pocket. If you happened to guess correctly, the other one presented to you in the second choice will be a loser. If you picked wrong ( >99.999% chance) the other one presented to you in the second choice will be the winning ticket.
Loser Araysar
Log Wizard
- 84,914
- 171,903
I understand. My question remains the same:
Are you picking 1 ticket out of millions, or 1 ticket out of 2?
Such as?
The only example I saw presented was provided without any of that quantitative data or any attempt to try to avoid assuming (for example) that people are actually being paid according to their economic inputs to the final product.
So I don't agree with Dumar (or Marx for that matter) that capitalism necessarily leads to communism. I think it does necessarily lead to an elimination of capitalism. Most of the time (all of the time unless there is some deliberate intervention to prevent it) that leads to state-capitalism (which is basically the only form of capitalism that exists today) where you have the state acting as (essentially) a giant corporation that deliberately manipulates and scaffolds the economy. I think it's entirely possible that such a system could calcify in a way that might represent some sort of endgame of human civilization in spite of all the unnecessary suffering that comes with it.
Yeah I think the sort of people who would be needed in that kind of a revolt are the most thoroughly indoctrinated. I would say that I don't see a way out, but Republicans seem intent on smashing the liberal relief valves that prevent social upheaval so who knows? Their straining to drag us from state-capitalism back to (for realz) capitalism may very well trigger the kind of reaction it would take to dump capitalism as a way of life entirely. Whatever happens, it won't be pretty.
There are two picks. One is out of millions. Then the result of that pick stays around and you choose between it and another thing. The way the other thing is chosen is what makes the picks dependent.
Even though you know the one you put in your pocket is almost definitely not the right one?
Well the one in your pocket was picked out of millions and only one of those millions was the right one.
- Status