In MNM's case, they need a consistent base of 5K or so and it'll be alive and well.
This "5K subs and they're fine" figure feels more like wishful thinking than math. Where's that number coming from, exactly? Because I can't think of a single live service MMO that's sustaining itself, let alone growing, on 5K active subs.
Even if you assume a generous $15/month sub, that's $75K/month before taxes, merchant fees, or operating costs. Once you start factoring in servers, bandwidth, support staff, legal, infrastructure, art, marketing, QA, and (god forbid) paying the devs something resembling a livable wage, that number evaporates fast. And even if you handwave all that, the problem isn't just financial, it's social. A "niche" MMO with 5K players doesn't have enough density to sustain a healthy world, especially with the omega sized zones MnM are building. You'll end up with ghost towns, fragmented playerbases, and raid ecosystems that collapse as soon as a handful of veterans leave. BDO has a giant world that feels empty as fucking shit and it has 3-4x the players of MnMs 5k number.
Let's put it in perspective: BDO has had 12-20K concurrent players for nearly a decade, with whales funding an entire marketplace of cosmetic addiction, and
even they are barely keeping the lights on. But sure, MnM - an indie studio with no monetization plan, no marketing, and a design philosophy straight out of 1999 is going to somehow hit this mythical 5k number. Which nobody can explain to me how/why that's the "magic" number needed to sustain a live service MMO.