MTG thread

Mist I cast counterspell

Counterspell made me laugh.

I got the Hobbit Secret Lair Foil "He who walks unseen". I like how the foil is applied in this one. Did not care about food tokens but that one sold out first.

I have no self control...

Other two boxes sitting on the shelf looked more and more tempting each day.

Foil Mox Amber, others non-foil


Foil book covers


Foil Smaug Showcase, borderless foil Bowmasters, non-foil Gleaming Splendor


Surge foils, camera didn't want to catch them very well


Other decent pulls

I have my one box sitting in the closet. As long as it is sealed, I call it Schrodinger's box. It both does and does not have a Gold Smaug. I also picked up both of the scene boxes.

You got some really nice pulls. Gleaming Splendor is $$ and will most likely go back up. The Foil Mox Amber is also very nice. You got some good boxes even if no Gold Smaug.

There is the Schrodinger effect in play for these for sure. People will always look to products that have a distinct chase.

These boxes will go up, and Smaug's value will go down. Where the balancing point for their value will end up, who knows, but it won't be pre-order price for sure. I was probably dumb to rip all three, but I'm just glad that I pulled as well as I did. Sure I didn't hit a gold Smaug, but after selling the top hits and working through the mid to lowd tier ones, the fun will pay for itself.

Something that MTG folks who don't do sports cards won't fully understand yet is the draw at a card so valuable with WOTC's stated /500 copies in play. With the count of 500 copies and the unknown print run of the collector boxes, it still isn't an easy pull...but 500 is a high bar of available copies in comparison to the sports card world. There have been serialized sports cards for over 35 years now, and that has been fine tuned over time. WOTC:MTG are still very new to the serialization of cards and are just trying to figure out what works best for them. I will say that I think it was a mistake on their end to not serialize the Smaug card.

Using Topps' coloring parallels, most sports collectors are after gold /50, orange /25, black /10, red /5, or the superfractor /1. They have other colors/levels depending on the product, but the ones I listed are the most sot after and valuable. In most cases when you hit a parallel, it is some scrub player and bound for the dollar box. Sure you can hit a top rookie or great player, but that isn't factored into the odds. Too many times have I pulled some low numbered parallel and then looked at the names that it could have been and wished I hadn't wasted the luck on the pull.

As example, here is a recent sale of a 2025 Ohtani auto that is numbered to /10. It is in the ballpark value wise of the Smaug, and an example of how far your odds are of hitting something of similar value from what is considered a flagship sports set.



Box prices currently from Dave & Adams:


And the odds chart from Topps for this insert subset/parallel, by-the-pack not box:


While the "Delight" version looks to be a close comparison, you get 1 pack in a box at roughly $600 per box. I can pretty much guarantee if you opened 5900~ Hobbit Collector packs you would see a Smaug. I would be willing to bet it would be closer to half or even less.

TLDR
Having a chance at such a valuable card, and being able to recoop a good portion of your buy in, seems like one of the better gambles in all of card collecting currently.

If we could all be as lucky as this guy. The only one I found graded currently.

Let's check in and see what's going on in magic land lately



oh dear