I'd love it if you can explain the 33% thing. Or point me to a source that could clear up my confusion.
Becuase i remember seeing something to the effect that you would get influence after 3 different maps and then the boss after 3 more different maps alternatively you'd have a 33% chance if you didnt run different maps.
Has not been the case.
Assuming you're starting out, once you get to the atlas and do all the prerequisites (Find Kiracs brother, the watchstone towers, etc), you have to get 16 watchstones by defeating the edge regions (Haewark, Lex, Lira, Vastir) four conquerors. These are guaranteed to appear so long as you run a different map in the region each time, and you have the approporate number of watchstones socketed. If you mouse over to the storage area of the watchstones on the left of the atlas, it will highlight the region and tell you which stones from that region you've obtained. Any you've not obtained will tell you how many watchstones that you have to socket before a conqueror will have appear. They have to appear 3 times in order to actually open up a map via Kirac/Zana and fight them. So you defeat 16 conquerors getting 16 watchstones (Each one is killed 4 times, once per region). You then have to defeat Siris. Win or lose from that point forward, the conquerors only have a 33% chance to appear when you open a map, however, they won't appear until Siris is defeated. If you fail Siris, you have to re-do the cycle, but with the 33% chance instead of a guarantee.
Since you have to do it 3 times per region it works out to approximately 40 maps to "cycle" a spawn of Siris. Once you defeat him the first time, you can then do the same process on the inner regions, getting the 16 watchstones from those regions, for a total of 32. Note that any time Siris may appear during this, you can enter the fight, trigger the dialog, then leave, and Siris will go away and you can continue (You're only required to beat him the first time). People might "buy" your fight from you (but their loot), so you can sell it. 40-60c seems to be going rate atm. Some people will kill him free for you, and you get loot. YMMV.
The math that was fixed was that they originally had it as 33% chance, even from the first time getting watchstones. They fixed this to be a guarantee (pre-Siris attempts), however they broke the odds after Siris, so it was much more like 10% and not 33%. They recently fixed that and it's really 33% now, and true to it's name it takes about 40 maps to complete the cycle.
