Retirement... (i.e. what are you going to be after you've grown up)

OU Ariakas

OU Ariakas

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Khane said:
One thing also contributing to a lot of the reported financial success here right now, in August 2025, is the comical success of the market. A lot of people here, who had been investing aggressively in the last 13 years, and especially in the last 5, made quite significant, almost unheard of gains in broad index funds like the S&P500 with basically no effort or insider knowledge necessary.

A lot of people here probably started doing exactly that if they were following the investing thread since it was started. I'm one of those people.

I was a consultant with no access to a 401k until July of 2021 when I was made an FTE at my current employer. I've been maxing my 401k ever since, and my employer gives a pretty standard 4.5% match. 99% of my 401k is in FXAIX, which is a Fidelity S&P500 mutual fund. It would be 100% but Merrill Lynch requires I have at least 5 funds I contribute to, because Merrill Lynch is a garbage platform.

Anyway, in just 4 years of aggressively contributing to my 401k and putting it almost entirely into 1 S&P500 fund this is the balance:

View attachment 597771

And it's that healthy after such a short amount of time because of ludicrous return rates like this:

View attachment 597772

Merrill Lynch will not let me look back further than 2 years because, as I said, it's a garbage platform. Their site will not give me any data on my own goddamn 401k further out than 2 years. I was kind of hoping to give full contribution and return rates over the life of the 401k but not possible.
Click to expand...

I find that they REALLY try to obfuscate your "returns" inside of a 401k because they don't want you to see how much of your growth was just you and your company match vs. the actual % change in the account.

I do have a good barometer, though. I changed jobs in 2017 and decided to roll my 2 previous 401ks into a new one at Vanguard to do a slightly modified Boglehead strategy. So I have one large deposit and then nothing else and can see the results. Look at it since the end of COVID. Just amazing.

1755039748442.png


Oh, and here is a stat over the past 8 years, which has to be a true value since there were no deposits after the initial:

1755039798629.png
 
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Cad

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Khane said:
One thing also contributing to a lot of the reported financial success here right now, in August 2025, is the comical success of the market. A lot of people here, who had been investing aggressively in the last 13 years, and especially in the last 5, made quite significant, almost unheard of gains in broad index funds like the S&P500 with basically no effort or insider knowledge necessary.

A lot of people here probably started doing exactly that if they were following the investing thread since it was started. I'm one of those people.

I was a consultant with no access to a 401k until July of 2021 when I was made an FTE at my current employer. I've been maxing my 401k ever since, and my employer gives a pretty standard 4.5% match. 99% of my 401k is in FXAIX, which is a Fidelity S&P500 mutual fund. It would be 100% but Merrill Lynch requires I have at least 5 funds I contribute to, because Merrill Lynch is a garbage platform.

Anyway, in just 4 years of aggressively contributing to my 401k and putting it almost entirely into 1 S&P500 fund this is the balance:

View attachment 597771

And it's that healthy after such a short amount of time because of ludicrous return rates like this:

View attachment 597772

Merrill Lynch will not let me look back further than 2 years because, as I said, it's a garbage platform. Their site will not give me any data on my own goddamn 401k further out than 2 years. I was kind of hoping to give full contribution and return rates over the life of the 401k but not possible.
Click to expand...
You are not kidding. I started investing in 2010 and really got going making big deposits in 2011/2012. It has returned 10.7% annually since then.

The market has just been retarded the last 10 years in general which has made a lot of us rich. Like everything, the people who have a lot more made a lot more - I've actually deposited about $4M, but that has ballooned to a lot more in holdings since I never touch it.

Screenshot 2025-08-12 at 6.20.46 PM.png


I wasn't really thinking retirement in 2020, but with my holdings basically doubling since then (which is retarded) it becomes "why not?" Even though I make a lot (although I've been making less since I've been working less) the investment income dwarfs my actual income, making it stare you right in the face with the big question: "Why am I working?"

The market has been my best friend.

On the other hand, I wanted to go see other decades and look at this shit:

Screenshot 2025-08-12 at 6.26.35 PM.png


If this is right, the last 16 years has been pretty tame compared to the 80's/90's. Is Grok smoking crack or did the 20 years between 1980-2000 like quintuple the market?
 
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Khane

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Looks like that might be based off of reddit data and other "corroborating sources"

This is what chatgpt spits out:

1755043289985.png
 
Khane

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Closing price of the S&P 500 on Jan 1, 1980 was 110.97 and it was 359.97 on Jan 1, 1990. So 3.49x ish?
 
Furry

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Khane said:
Closing price of the S&P 500 on Jan 1, 1980 was 110.97 and it was 359.97 on Jan 1, 1990. So 3.49x ish?
Click to expand...
324.38%... S&P500 was 1469.25 to start 2000, so 90s would be 408.15% growth.

AI loves to just make shit up when it comes to numbers. I never trust its numbers. 408% growth is ~15% a year averaged out over 10 years. It appears that We're on track for getting a high 300% growth this decade if things continue as is.

This is why I always recommend S&P. It's pretty damn reliable.
 
Kithani

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Control said:
So you think that on average, the relative handful of people with the knowledge and spare cash to have a 3d-capable pc in 1999-2000 are less successful than the average American? Care to explain your math, because I find it hard to imagine how that's possible.
Click to expand...
Dude I was 11 and had a PC capable of playing EQ. It’s not like you had to build it yourself with a soldering iron you could walk into a Gateway store and buy one.

If you include average American as like someone who grew up in the projects or snuck across the border then sure I guess, but your typical middle class white kid who wasted their high school or college years playing EQ 40 hours a week no I don’t consider them highly likely to be killing it today.
 
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Control

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Kithani said:
Dude I was 11 and had a PC capable of playing EQ.
Click to expand...
And are you below average now?

Kithani said:
If you include average American as like someone who grew up in the projects or snuck across the border then sure I guess, but your typical middle class white kid who wasted their high school or college years playing EQ 40 hours a week no I don’t consider them highly likely to be killing it today.
Click to expand...
Including people that are below average is how averages work, but even among your white, middle class, middle school cohort, are you doing worse than average?
Don't you think 11 year olds with a pc in 1999 (and an internet connection) might have some advantages over kids who didn't?
 
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Haus

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OU Ariakas said:
I find that they REALLY try to obfuscate your "returns" inside of a 401k because they don't want you to see how much of your growth was just you and your company match vs. the actual % change in the account.

I do have a good barometer, though. I changed jobs in 2017 and decided to roll my 2 previous 401ks into a new one at Vanguard to do a slightly modified Boglehead strategy. So I have one large deposit and then nothing else and can see the results. Look at it since the end of COVID. Just amazing.

View attachment 597773

Oh, and here is a stat over the past 8 years, which has to be a true value since there were no deposits after the initial:

View attachment 597775
Click to expand...
Yeah.... When I landed in my current gig and realized I was going to stay more than 2 years I finally rolled all my old zombie 401ks into it. Was embarrassed afterwards for having put it off so long when it was really stupid easy to do...

As for S&P500 performance. For me it was the combination of my company and the S&P500 in 2023. I wish I could have a couple more 2023 performances for my stuff.
 
Seananigans

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Rhanyn said:
I grew up poor, zero sound financial direction came from anyone in my family. Wife is in the same boat. I've made some pretty shit decisions through my life, and have pretty much accepted that I will likely work until I drop dead. That is my contribution to this thread.


That being said, I have been trying to get some momentum going. Finally in the state where I am saving 10%, investing 15%, and then trying to cut my spending to pump those numbers and put more into paying on the wife and I's 2 cars early. Life has a real knack for bending me over the barrel and taking what pennies I do scrape together though, and having turned 40 this summer, feels like there isn't a lot of time left to fix things when we don't make a lot of income, combined we are under 100k a year. I will say that these forums and parsing information from here has contributed in a positive way to me getting my shit figured out, or at least closer to it.
Click to expand...

Huh, that’s weird. If certain absurdly edgy personalities were remotely correct, listening to this forum should have led to you both penniless on the street.


Possibly smoking meth outside a Taco Bell.


Seriously though, good job and while you may not retire early, you for sure have a solid chance of retiring normally.
 
Seananigans

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Haus said:
Another thing to remember is that there are probably people reading this thread who aren't actively posting in it. And I can see why. If you're behind the curve on retirement (which I will fully admit I was until I landed a job in sales around 10 years ago that was good enough to help me catch up some) it might be intimidating to post here. On the other hand we have had those who admit to concerns (like @Koushirou ). I'd hope that folks around here would be comfortable enough to admit and ask questions. Because let's just say we are blessed with a number of people who have been lucky enough to get way ahead of that chart from the fed, I'd hope they wouldn't bee assclowns to those who aren't and just looking for tips, stories, and maybe a point in the right direction.

Of course I might be overestimating the population around here in that regard, but call me an eternal optimist.

Full disclosure, on the chart @Captain Suave posted (below) it looks like for my age I'm right around the 90% percentile, which makes me feel like I'm in the Chernobyl space...
View attachment 597761
So for me...
View attachment 597762

And I figure there's no reason to be envious of those doing better, or look down on those doing worse, we're all assholes here. But we're the assholes we've got.
Click to expand...

It might be worth noting “net worth” isn’t a great metric for evaluating your retirement success rate. There’s a not-insignificant portion of net worth that isn’t relevant to retirement, and in some cases is a negative.
 
Seananigans

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Control said:
And are you below average now?


Including people that are below average is how averages work, but even among your white, middle class, middle school cohort, are you doing worse than average?
Don't you think 11 year olds with a pc in 1999 (and an internet connection) might have some advantages over kids who didn't?
Click to expand...

He said “typical white middle class kid who played 40 hours/week of EQ in college.” Which should be a huge clue as to his frame of reference when attempting to discuss this.

He clearly doesn’t understand averages or representative populations.
 
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Haus

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Seananigans said:
It might be worth noting “net worth” isn’t a great metric for evaluating your retirement success rate. There’s a not-insignificant portion of net worth that isn’t relevant to retirement, and in some cases is a negative.
Click to expand...
There is that. Especially since for many "Net Worth" includes a house which they wouldn't want to sell if they had to live in it.

Or in the case of some it includes an insane student loan they will carry like a mill stone to their graves...
 
Gravel

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Cad said:
You are not kidding. I started investing in 2010 and really got going making big deposits in 2011/2012. It has returned 10.7% annually since then.

The market has just been retarded the last 10 years in general which has made a lot of us rich. Like everything, the people who have a lot more made a lot more - I've actually deposited about $4M, but that has ballooned to a lot more in holdings since I never touch it.

View attachment 597779

I wasn't really thinking retirement in 2020, but with my holdings basically doubling since then (which is retarded) it becomes "why not?" Even though I make a lot (although I've been making less since I've been working less) the investment income dwarfs my actual income, making it stare you right in the face with the big question: "Why am I working?"

The market has been my best friend.

On the other hand, I wanted to go see other decades and look at this shit:

View attachment 597781

If this is right, the last 16 years has been pretty tame compared to the 80's/90's. Is Grok smoking crack or did the 20 years between 1980-2000 like quintuple the market?
Click to expand...
This is what I love about investing. People think the returns are crazy when really they're average.

CAGR of the market for 150+ years is about 10%. This period isn't special.

 
Cutlery

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Haus said:
Yeah.... When I landed in my current gig and realized I was going to stay more than 2 years I finally rolled all my old zombie 401ks into it. Was embarrassed afterwards for having put it off so long when it was really stupid easy to do...

As for S&P500 performance. For me it was the combination of my company and the S&P500 in 2023. I wish I could have a couple more 2023 performances for my stuff.
Click to expand...

Really?

I fully plan on taking all 401ks I ever have from now on and rolling them into the IRA I control. The return I get on just having everything in SPLG is completely incomparable to the "managed" plan I pay for the privilege of having at my employer.
 
Haus

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Cutlery said:
Really?

I fully plan on taking all 401ks I ever have from now on and rolling them into the IRA I control. The return I get on just having everything in SPLG is completely incomparable to the "managed" plan I pay for the privilege of having at my employer.
Click to expand...
And here's another area of Retirement stuff I don't have near enough knowledge on. I need to learn how IRAs work as you're the third person to mention how self guidance through one is better, and I was unaware I could roll my 401k into one.
 
moonarchia

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Haus said:
And here's another area of Retirement stuff I don't have near enough knowledge on. I need to learn how IRAs work as you're the third person to mention how self guidance through one is better, and I was unaware I could roll my 401k into one.
Click to expand...
An IRA is a limited investment that gives you an option to use income that has already been taxed that then does not get hit with capital gains tax when you retire. That part can be axed by Congress at any time, but worse comes to worst you just end up paying capital gains on it.
 
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