Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow (2026)

current forecast $47M – $65M

Madame Web - $15M opening
Morbius – $39M opening
The Marvels – $47M opening
The Flash – $55M opening
Black Adam – $67M opening

Vuuxo said:

I completely forgot this movie was a thing till it popped back up top of the sub-forum. So...fuck you Goatface for reminding me.

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Eh, it's the Summer (Movie Season) of Our Discontent.

Mando and Supergirl don't seem to be anything beyond IP +1, and the more The Odyssey gets discussed, the less people want to hear about it.

If Spider-Man sucks it'll be a long haul to see if Villeneuve wraps up Dune 3 cleanly and Doomsday is at least an interesting disaster at the end of the year.

What's weird is 2027* is filled with franchises that would have thrilled teenage me but now leave crusty middle-aged me preemptively annoyed: 2027 Release Schedule | FirstShowing.net

Do I want Spaceballs, Star Wars, Spider-Verse, Superman, Simpsons, Batman, Gremlins, Avengers, or Lord of the Rings to suck? No. But the only one I'd be annoyed with failing is Spider-Verse, just because its the only (sub-)franchise that's not 20+ years old.

Which is the whole danger of relying on nostalgia and adaptations - once you've mined them dry you have nothing else. *Unrelated side-eye at a Murder, She Wrote revival for Christmas 2027*. If Woman of Tomorrow was the best Supergirl content WB had to work with, what would the followups be?

*That timing isn't coincidental - the writers only went back to work after the last strikes at the end of 2023 / beginning of 2024, so now all those scripts they immediately started pounding out are finishing production.

I'm holding out hope for He-Man and Street Fighter.

TBT-TheBigToe said:

Movie comes out in a month, how are they tracking results this early? Do THAT many people actually buy tickets that far in advance for movies?

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Yes, box office predictions are based on advance ticket sales. For _most_ genres, those predictions are accurate enough (it's very unlikely to do double or half the predicated range)... for the opening weekend. Overall box office can vary signifiicantly depending on quality, public buzz, and level of competition*.

*Again, I have to remind you that Supergirl's only action competition for five weeks until Spider-Man comes out is The Odyssey, which both isn't really an action movie and has its own anti-buzz.

TBT-TheBigToe said:

Movie comes out in a month, how are they tracking results this early? Do THAT many people actually buy tickets that far in advance for movies?

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advance ticket sales were "supposed" to go on sale yesterday. supposed as studios don't make official announcements for all movies but apparently do give places an idea when it will be. read comments thinking they wanted to avoid this week as advanced tickets for toy story and disclosure day did go on sale.

social media, trailer views and polling are the biggest factors outside of ticket sales. one theater i used to go to, would have a company doing polling. the rep would just hang out in the lobby and ask certain people question. most time would be like 3-4 questions about 5-6 movies. simple stuff like have you seen the trailer, do you plan on seeing this.

Wombat said:

Again, I have to remind you that Supergirl's only action competition for five weeks until Spider-Man comes out is The Odyssey, which both isn't really an action movie and has its own anti-buzz.

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think it is going to be regulated to a single screen the size of a closet very quickly. it is a lower budget hero movie and predictions had it earning $140-175m for it domestic run.

Wombat said:

Yes, box office predictions are based on advance ticket sales. For _most_ genres, those predictions are accurate enough (it's very unlikely to do double or half the predicated range)... for the opening weekend. Overall box office can vary signifiicantly depending on quality, public buzz, and level of competition*.

*Again, I have to remind you that Supergirl's only action competition for five weeks until Spider-Man comes out is The Odyssey, which both isn't really an action movie and has its own anti-buzz.

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Advance tickets are part of it, studios and movie marketing firms have entire analytics departments that track all social media, historics, discourse, pre-sales, surveys, theatre screen counts (must be done months in advance), awareness levels, etc.

Example Odyssey: The YouTube grifter discourse is toxic, where as the elsewhere say Tik Tok people are excited for Zendaya and Pattinson (I have no idea, its an example). General audiences are well acquainted with Nolan and his rep for making movies that are generally seen to be "must see in theaters". Movie has star power and the names will draw audiences from varied age ranges. The subject matter is well known to a degree, and its releasing when its hot outside and people are looking for indoor activities in much of the US. Since its a tentpole it will have access to lots of screens, its IMAX presales went bananas and it will draw the "movie nerd" crowd. There has been lots of advertising and general audiences know its coming and its being released against more family friendly movies which are not its main competition, and there is a built in Oscar buzz which still matters to get studios to continue marketing the film.

It will likely have a bonkers opening weekend, estimates are domestically around 125 million and his movies always do well internationally

As for this it has things working against it. Supergirl is not a well known actress, super hero fatigue (hurts lesser known or less popular heroes, a Spiderman or Avengers are generally immune), less then engaging trailers, Toy Story 5 releasing the week before and Minions releasing the week after. People may go cause of Jason Momoa but hes not the lead, etc.

Juvarisx said:

Example Odyssey: The YouTube grifter discourse is toxic, where as the elsewhere say Tik Tok people are excited for Zendaya and Pattinson (I have no idea, its an example).

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Pretty sure the entire western world is pissed off about Helen of Detroit. Even non-film guys like Tim Poole and Matt Walsh are up in arms over that degeneracy.

Bald Brah said:

Pretty sure the entire western world is pissed off about Helen of Detroit. Even non-film guys like Tim Poole and Matt Walsh are up in arms over that degeneracy.

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Right, YouTube grifters. The reality is if the movie is good it wont matter that a character who will be in a 3 hour movie for 10 minutes max (hell you have seen her likely one scene in trailers) is hilariously miscast and it wont have a huge effect on box office. James Cameron turned white men bad into almost 7 billion because they were spectacle films that people wanted to see in theaters over their smartphone using torrents.

The movies run will be determined by weather Damon can carry it and if people enjoy it. Nolan name just gives it a big push out of the gate. I think Helens casting is retarded, but its not a reason for me to not see a Nolan movie when its not about her.

Cameron didn't make a white man bad movie. He copied one of the most successful movies of all time, dances with wolves. It wasn't white man bad it was cowboys vs Indians with an embedded white guy who is the hero of the movie. It's white man savior because the Indians/aliens were too dumb to do it on their own.