Tennis

We have our final:

Nadal[5]broke Berdych in the opening game and rolled from that, gathering a second break in the process to bag the opening set. Berdych kept it closer in the 2nd, but Nadal pushed at 4-4, broke and served it out.
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Federer[2]played a poor match, making too much unforced errors. Pair on the other hand played a decent match, using his backhand to good effect, serving a number of winners, going for the returns... good stuff. In fact he was the first to break. The thing is the frenchman got a little tight, so he lost his advance, found himself in a tie-breaker, lead in it and... once again, made some untimely errors or poorly executed drop shots, costing him the set. As one can expect from the veteran he is, Federer put pressure on Paire right at the beginning of the second set, to capitalize on the poor mental state of the underdog who tripped with the finish line in sight, and it paid off. The swiss then took care of business, no more no less, to close the match in straight sets and don't go to bed too late.

Federer will have to find the form of his earlier rounds if he wants to get some enjoyment out of tomorrow's final. On the up side, the match will not take place at the same time as the final of the Ice Hockey World Championship so it will not be in the back of his head.

That did not last long.

Federer played a good first game, throwing a couple winning serve and volleys in there for good measure, played a decent return game after than, but Nadal hitting his backhand very aggressively, managed to fend him off. After that, it was basically all Nadal for an hour. The spaniard played well, but the blame lays chiefly at the feet of Federer, who was very inconsistent. It's one thing to miss backhands because of the high bouncing balls Nadal throws at you, but it's another to make dozens of unforced errors with the forehand when in a good position in the rallies. That was that much more infuriating that here and there, Federer managed to play some good points, with sound tactic and solid execution, but it was drowned by the unforced errors and the quality of Nadal's play. As Nadal served for the match, Federer suddenly managed to string enough good points together to break and even hold after that, but the buck stopped there. 6-1 6-3 for Nadal, pushing the Master 1000 all time record to 24.

The most worrying thing as a Federer fan is that he used to play better and better as he went deep into tournaments, but these days it seems like he starts by playing well or decently and then it goes downhill. Today was his first final of 2013. At the same time last year, he had played and won four.

Federer did beat Nadal in relatively recent times on Clay (Madrid final in 2009) and the French Open final of 2011 was certainly the closest between the two and was three or four point away from being a straight set victory for Federer (lead in the first set, tie-breaker in the second set, won the third). Federer's game plan in Rome was good, but the execution was deeply flawed and Nadal played one of his best match since his come back. Obviously, Nadal will always be the favorite on clay, but I don't think the task is impossible for Federer, providing he executes a lot better than in Rome and that Nadal is not on fire.

Anyway: the draw of the French Open will take place tomorrow and we already know that Del Potro and Murray are not part of it. Wawrinka has a question mark next to his name (he will probably wait until the last minute to decide because of his thigh), but so does Haas who did not play today against Nieminen in Dusseldorf because of a cold. Honestly, I saw a little bit of that tournament and I wondered why anyone with any hope of winning some matches at the French would go out and play, because it's November out there: rain, wind, cold. A perfect combo to catch death or injure yourself. I am not saying Haas is not ill, but I am sure the craptacular weather factored in his decision to retire. Let's hope he will be in Paris though.

Nadal is in the top half with Djokovic. Ferrer in the bottom half with Federer. Monfils, back from injury and who got a Wild Card will play Berdych in the first round... more when the fine web people of the French Open post the draw!

Here we go: The draw from the POV of the top 8 seeds:

DJOKOVICbeat Nadal in Monaco's final, but also lost to Dimitrov in Madrid and Berdych in Rome. One ankle at 90%.

R128:Goffinbelgian hope who reached the round of 16 last year and did precious nothing since. Played through qualifications.

R64:Dodig(can play well, as not done so for a while) orPella(young argentinian leftie who is playing well in Dusseldorf this week)

R32:Dimitrovmanaged to play an epic match in Madrid, but even if he finds the same level of tennis is dubious level of fitness should prevent him from prevailing in a best of 5 sets match.

R16: ProbablyKohlschreiber, the lowest ranked of the top 16 seeds (but who already beat Djokovic on the parisian clay!).DolgopolovandTomiccould also emerge from this part of the draw, but considering their recent results, it's unlikely.

There are some quality players in there, but Djokovic is te pretty clear favorite to go through.



TIPSAREVICis far from his best and not much of a clay court player...

R128:Mahut, the french attacker, is here thanks to a wild card as he was injured for a while. Always a tricky opponent on a fast surface, the frenchman is not much of a threat on clay especially in the cold and damp condition we should have early next week.

R64:Verdascois playing somewhat better and trying to climb out of the hole he dug himself into. The spaniard will like his chance.

R32:Youzhny(seeded 29 but with mixed results lately) orAndujar(unseeded spaniard who is making a great clay court season).

R16: If healthy,Haasshould emerge, but this part of the draw also hasIsner(always tricky even if not in great form at the moment),Berlocq(very competent dirt-baller and playing well),Harrison(american youngster with potential but still trying to find his stride on the tour, fought through qualifications),Rufin(big hitting french youngster, Haas' somewhat tricky first round opponent)...

Very opened part of the draw considering all seeds have a big question mark next to their name for form or health reasons. I am rooting for Haas, but if the german demonstrated that he could beat Djokovic on a fast surface, I doubt he can beat Djokovic on clay in a 'best of five' match.


NADALplayed better and better through the clay court season. He lost to Djokovic, but other than that he only gave up four sets in 19 matches (one to Gulbis, one to Dimitrov, two to Ferrer).

R128:Brandsa strong german journeyman.

R64:Klizan, a telented but up and (mostly) down slovakian youngster.

R32:Fognini(seeded 27) who flamboyant but just got dismantled in Rome by the same Nadal or... why not...Rosolwho just won a tournament and had some good wins recently. I seriously doubt in his ability to ever find the level of form he displayed when he beat Nadal in Wimbledon last year, but who knows...

R16:Nishikori(13) orPaire(24). When the japanese is playing well, he is tough to beat. The guy plays a bit like Ferrer: running fast, steady shots, makes you run with his forehand... a tricky customer, but he played somewhat poorly since his victory over Federer in Madrid. Paire is a mix of power and finesse, with a very good backhand. As it is often the case with players with a good hand and a big arsenal, shot selection can become dubious and focus can dissipate, making it hard to keep a high level through a whole match.

Nadal is the obvious favorite in this part of the draw. No one is immune to bad day, bad luck or an opponent playing out of his skin, but it's most likely that Nadal will reach the quarter finals without having lost a set.


GASQUETis the 7th seed. A ranking that is more the reward of consistency than great results. He also played a poor clay court season.

R128:Stakhovskyis a player I love and I can't figure why he has been lingering for months at the door of the top 100 after having been almost a top 30 player. I don't think he has been injured, so I suspect it's a confidence thing.

R64: Undefined qualifier (sometimes there are very dangerous players forced to play qualies because their ranking dropped due to inactivity, but it's not really the case this year).

R32:Mayer(28) orDavydenko... both not playing their best, but both can be tricky: Mayer because of his unconventional style, always mixing things up and putting a lot of slice on his backhands, and Davydenko because he takes the ball very early and hug the baseline, taking time from the opponent.

R16:Wawrinka(9) if he can play or possibly polish sensationJanowicz, who, after a poor year, beat Tsonga and Gasquet in back to back matches in Rome.

For me Gasquet is an enigma and I always feel that he can lose whatever the opponent his because of his natural inclination to play so far back behind his baseline, making it very tough to hit winners and to be aggressive on the opponent's short balls. If healthy, I expect Wawrinka to go through. If the swiss is not fit enough, Gasquet has a good shot, but a surprise like Janowicz, Davydenko or even the arentinian Zeballos is not impossible. In any case, Nadal is not overly worried.





BERDYCHis not known as a major threat on clay, but I thought he moved really well in Madrid and Rome.

R128:Monfils... one of the dangerous unseeded player in the draw. Back from injury, here because of a Wild Card, the athletic frenchman just beat Santiago, Fognini and Haase in Nice, three quality players. I suspect both Berdych and him are bit bummed by the draw.

R64:Gulbis... yep... probably the most dangerous unseeded player in the draw. We know his devastating power, his renewed investment in the game, his deft touch, but I suspect a difference could be the quality of Gulbis' defense that really impressed me in his recent matches. Not only the quality of the shots he can produce with his backhand when under extreme pressure, but also the ground he covers and, even more importantly, the fighting spirit, the willingness to chase these balls down. Here again: both Berdych and Gulbis must be a bit bummed.

R32:Robredo(32) is the unexpected seed, rewarding some decent results from the veteran spaniard. Another option is talented dutchmanSijsling(or even less likely, austrian veteran Melzer).

R16:Almagro(11) andSeppi(20) are the most likely to go through on paper, but through be told, Seppi played a terrible clay court season and Almagro reached the final of Barcelona (losing to Nadal), but suffered early exists everywhere else. Maybe a surprise guest likeAlund(unheralded argentinian playing well at the moment) can capitalize on this, but it's still a long shot.

In spite of two supremely shitty first rounds, Berdych is the favorite of this part of the draw. I don't believe too much in a health, hungry but rusty Monfils going through, but a hot Gulbis or an Almagro back to his real level (see Barcelona) are reasonable options.


FERRER(seeded 4) is the only guy other than Djokovic and Gulbis who seriously tested Nadal. Yet, his clay court season is a bit underwhelming, getting creamed by Wawrinka in Portugal and losing to russian veteran Tursunov (!?!?) in Barcelona.

R128:Matosevic(Bosnia-born australian, journeyman).

R64:Montanes(spanish clay court journeyman).

R32:Granollers(31), played well in Rome, but has yet to win a set against Ferrer in five matches (and it's rarely close).

R16:Raonic(14) orAnderson(23), two 'big serve, big forehand' guys, but against Ferrer you need to be able to defend and turn defense into attack and on a clay court I suspect Ferrer will absorb their big serve, make them hit a backhand or a tough forehand, absorb that and engage a rally they will lose. The quality of their serving can keep the match close though.

Ferrer should really cruise into the round of 16 and is as big a favorite you can be in a match where not everything is in your hands (if a big server is in a groove and finds his targets, the match will be tight even if the sniper loses 99% of the rallies). The quarter will be tougher though, who ever is on the other side of the net.


TSONGAis not exactly a clay court guy, but he had a decent enough season, posting wins over Wawrinka, Monaco, Berlocq or Verdasco, and playing a decently close match against Nadal in Monte-Carlo. A suffered two upsets, one from a hot Wawrinka and one from a hot Janowicz, so not much shame in that.

R128:Bedene, relatively young solvenian that I never saw play (ranked 80ish, best 60ish).

R64:Nieminenwill be an nice opposition of styles, as the lefty finn is about counterpunching where Tsonga is about punching.

R32:Chardy(25) big game guy who was in a funk and is playing better lately.

R16:Monaco(17) who was in a funk and is playing a lot better lately. The top seed isCilic(11), but he is still in a funk!

On paper, this is a pretty kind draw for Tsonga, but the frenchman has a knack to let matches he should win easily become deadly traps, so, while I expect him to go through, I also expect one or two five sets matches in there that will clip his wings for the later stages.


FEDERERis an enigma wrapped in a riddle. He did not play much, played some great matches, half-ass'ed others, but his record in best of five matches is what it is and Grand Slams are his N?1 objective as far as results go (staying healthy, enjoying tennis are probably the two main general objectives at this point).

R128: Undefined qualifier.

R64: Undefined qualifier (Berdych is pouting).

R32:Benneteau(30). While the frenchman pulled some great upsets against Federer, it was on fast indoor courts and since his heroics in Rotterdam in February, he lost eight of the nine matches he played. So maybe we will see young lituanianBerankisor german journeymanKamkeat this stage.

R16:Simon(15) is the top seed of this section of the draw and should be there providing he does not stumble in his first match against veteranHewitt(the former world N?1's experience and fighting spirit could prove to be good weapons against Simon who wears his opponent down mentally even more than physically). The other seed isQuerrey(18), but he played a really poor clay court season.

Unless some qualifier is in top form, Simon should prove the sternest test for Federer. He obliterated the frenchman in Rome, but it was in great part because Simon played a very poor match. Come the round of 16, if Simon plays a solid match, it will take a solid Federer to go through and let's just say that the perspective for the french crowd to have a Simon vs Tsonga quarter to play Ferrer in the semi will certainly make the atmosphere electric. Should the swiss go through, Tsonga will also be a tough hurdle to jump. Obviously, clay will dull some of Tsonga's weapons, but that is also true for Federer's. The weather, the form of the day, the energy spent in the previous rounds will factor in this one. What is certain is that Federer would be looking forward to a semi against Ferrer considering he never lost to the spaniard.



TO SUM THINGS UPI expect the following quarters:

DjokovicvsHaas(if healthy; Mr. X if not)

NadalvsWawrinka(if healthy; Gasquet or Janowicz if not)

Berdych(if no early exit; Gulbis or Almagro in case of an early exit) vsFerrer

TsongavsFederer


From there, the likely scenario is Nadal vs Djokovic and Ferrer vs Federer in the semis, with a Nadal vs Federer final won by Nadal. There are many crazy scenarii that are possible, but there is also a not so crazy one that I would find personally pretty awesome: a Ferrer victory over Nadal or Djokovic in the final.

Great summary, I watched way too much tennis today while grinding double experience in EQ. (Yes i am one of the nuts who still play EQ.) i amlooking forward to some of the upcoming matches.

Tennis Warehouse "Talk Tennis" forum sometimes has fantasy picks, and is generally a good read also.

A little update to say we know the names of the two qualifiers in Federer's part of the draw. The first one was Pablo Care?o Busta who, contrarily to what I said, was the dangerous player lurking in the qualies. This young spanish player was on the rise and at the door of the top 100 a couple years ago and held back by an injury and in 2013 he probably has the most match wins of all players (more than 50, with seven titles) even if those successes came for the vast majority in the 3rd division of tennis (first division being Grand Slams / Master 1000 / ATP 500 / ATP 250, second division being Challengers and third being Futures). Federer took the opponent seriously and made sure to impose himself on Care?o Busta who, in spite of the tremendous confidence his match wins provided him with, was at first paralyzed by the moment, the size of Court Central and the aura of Federer. And then there is the speed. No matter how much you play on the Challenger or Future circuits, it cannot prepare you to how early a player like Federer takes the ball and how fast and 'zippy' some of his shots are. 6-2 6-2 6-3 for Federer.

The second round opponent will be Somdev Devvarman, the indian player who comes from the american college team tennis circuit (like Isner, who Devvarman famously beat in a final) has been as high as 60ish two years ago. I remember a player with no huge weapons, more of a 'good court coverage and counter punch' kind of guy. Like most players who honed their game in the US, more at ease on hard court.

The Brands vs Nadal match should be a must watch in tennis schools, filed in the chapter 'how to play when you are the underdog'. Brands did just about everything right: shot selection, attitude, game plan... the whole package. Brands had a couple things working for him though: big weapons (1m96 / 6'5" with a big game), experience (8th year on tour) and confidence (no huge results, but a lot of match wins, of fights through qualifications, that brought his ranking from 150ish to 60ish). Anyway: he did exactly what you must do as the underdog. First: focus on your service games. Return games don't matter. If a break opportunity arise, great, but ideally, what you want is return games that do not tire you, do not break your focus, do not allow the favorite to ascertain authority through big rallies ended by big winners and, that's where an early break can be dangerous, does not sting the opponent into too high a gear. You want good, no non-sense, aggressive service games, where you go for your shots without going for too much, accepting the positive mistakes, accepting that the opponent will play some great shots, but understanding that if you execute well enough, with a cool head and a positive attitude, it takes a lot of great shots from the opponent, all clustered in a single return game, for a break to happen. Expect tough games though and be calm and ready for them. What you want, just like it happened with Brands, it's to reach 4-4 and understand that no matter who the favorite on the other side of the net is, he will get a little bit tight, because he should be winning and he is not.

That's Brands' first set for you: big serves, big forehands, killing short balls. Doing some serve & volley to mix things up, trying to be aggressive with the backhand or to slice down the line to get a forehand to play, using a lot the inside out forehand from the backhand corner. 80% of well placed first serves, but also very good second serves, bouncing high and taking Nadal far out of the court... perfect. Not over playing, but playing cleanly. Brands saved some break points at 4-3 with some great points and at 4-4, Nadal blinked: a double fault, a forehand in the net on a barely ok return from the german, a good point by Brands and then another unforced error... one service game later: 6-4 for Brands.

The beginning of the second set is danger zone for the underdog: the opponent is likely to be pissed off (which can be good or bad depending on who you play against) and you are likely to be excited (I am winning! I am giant slaying!) or deflated (pfffiouuuuu that was tough to bag this set). You can't do much about the opponent, but it is vital to remain focused and on an even keel. Brands did that marvelously. The guy was one set up over the overwhelming favorite of the tournament, playing extremely well, and he looked and acted absolutely unfazed. Just a Monday. The german reached 4-4 again, but Nadal did not blink. 5-5? Nope. Tie break it is then. When the underdog reaches the tie-break, it's already half a victory. Considering most of the Brands service games where closer than Nadal's, the spaniard was the favorite. Brands knew that, so he tried to force his luck and make things even more uncomfortable for Nadal by being even more aggressive on the return points. It worked. He took a lead... but then blinked. After a brilliant wise serve he got a mid court high bouncing reply and the german tried a reasonable shot (a net approach with a slice down the line, ideally a short, low bouncing one) but he made a total mess of it, reaching the bottom of the net. It would have been for a 4-2 lead, instead they switched side at 3-3. Enough for Nadal to find a way through and bring the match to one set all.


Now the underdog has a very very tough mental task: he has to acknowledge that what he has been doing is working because it brought him into a tie-breaker where he had opportunities and he has to brush aside the fact that he did not take these opportunities and that, because of it, he is back to square one. It takes a zen master to do that and Brands is apparently 'only' a talented disciple, because he played a poor game at the start of the third. A little less intensity in the footwork immediately translated into more unforced errors which was an unsustainable level with Nadal pushing. Much to Brands credit though, he did not crumble. He swallowed the bitter loss of his serve and marched on with a new goal: hold serve to get as many shots as possible to break back and reach another tie-breaker. He held, but could not break. A tough pill to swallow especially when you realize that suddenly you will need to win in five sets, that you spent a lot of energy with little reward and that maintaining the focus, the intensity and the quality of play for another two tough sets becomes a tougher task by the minute. So yeah, Brands, shaken, lost serve again early in the fourth, but once again, much much credit to him, he refocused and fought until he was too much. He was not able to force Nadal to serve for the match and lost his serve again for a 4-6 7-6 6-4 6-3 spanish victory (3 hours).



I think Brands really played almost as perfect a match than he could and really what hurt him was the overall poor quality of his returns (and good quality of Nadal's serving and, even more importantly, first ground stroke). In 19 return games, I think he sank his teeth in only four (and one of them was with Nadal's help). It shows how complete a package you must be and how full a match you must play to beat Nadal in the French Open.





In other news, Monfils did win a four hours match against Berdych 7-6 6-4 6-7 6-7 7-5. The fifth seed will probably not sleep too well when you consider he had four break points in the fifth set and converted none. Monfils will face Gulbis who won in straight sets. Hyper athletic defense versus hyper powerful attack should be a fun match to watch. It might be a blessing in disguise for Berdych who has greater ambitions in Wimbledon anyway.

This match, along with Monfils', seem to, at the very least, have fired up the underdogs. Goffin offered a stern resistance to world N?1 Djokovic. The young belgian has less weapons than Brands so it was harder for him to consistently take the game to the serb, but, helped by a Djokovic that was not at his very best, he managed to reach the tie-breaker of the first set, to level the second set after being a break down and to keep it very close deep in the third. Still, Djokovic managed to remain just good enough in the important moments to prevail in three sets. A feat made even more important because of the weather and the very real possibility rain and declining light could have adjourned the resolution of the match.

Other than the craptacular weather, things of note were:

- The retirement of australian hope Tomic (Hanescu through) and 28th seed Mayer (Istomin through).

- Recently ill/injured Wawrinka and Haas playing and winning (both not playing very well, but well enough)

- Dolgopolov (22) losing in three close sets to veterant Tursunov.

- Youzhny (29) being too strong for in form Andujar.

- Pella, the argentinian who reached the Dusseldorf semi-final as a qualifier, beat Dodig 12-10 in the fifth!


Oddly, we'll have some second round matches tomorrow even if the first round is not yet finished. Notably Federer vs Devvarman, Monfils vs Gulbis and Tsonga vs Nieminen. The weather forecast is a little better, but rain is still a distinct possibility.

The big match of the day was Monfils vs Gulbis that the frenchman won in four sets. Gulbis will have some regrets over that one, because he rallied from a break down and then won the first set tie-breaker, was a break up in the second that he lost 6-4 and a break up in third that he lost in a tie-breaker (I only got to see the first set sadly). At that point both players were pretty tired, so, to Gulbis' own admittance, the loss of the third set was tough to handle mentally, and he faded in the fourth as Monfils, on the other end, was boosted by his success in the third.

The extraordinary court coverage of Monfils and his superior returning skills make things very difficult for offensive players that live and die by theire winner/unforced errors ratio. Forcing you to fire two or three more shots to get a point and minimizing the cheap points one can get when serving, it takes a big mental effort of patience and regularity to beat the frenchman when you try to be the aggressor. In fact, I am sure Gulbis would have preferred to play Berdych rather than Monfils.

Ferrer, Tsonga and Federer all won in straight sets (with only Tsonga having a contest - due to the quality of his opponent, Nieminen, not a lack of quality in Tsonga).




Ferrer will play Lopez instead of Granollers. With Lopez being a Serve & Volley kind of guy, I am not sure how he wiggled his way past two dirtballers with this weather, but he did. They have a 6-6 head to head, but Lopez never beat Ferrer on clay. On top of that Ferrer is playing at or near his best at the moment while Lopez seriously lacks recent quality results.

Tsonga will play compatriot Chardy. A tricky customer, but only Chardy plays a full match and is in a hot day, Tsonga's experience and his new found ability to manage well the ebbs and flows of a long match should do the trick.

Federer will play Benneteau. The big serving french veteran pulled a couple big upsets against Federer and also played an epic match against him in Wimbeldon last year, but these all were on fast surfaces (indoor, indoor, grass). On clay, it's a much tougher challenge for the frenchman, especially on the back of a five sets against journeyman Kamke.

Monfils will face Robredo next. The spanish veteran, enjoying a second wind lately, had to fight from two sets down, so neither player should be very fresh.

Today, it rained. The few seeds that managed to finish their match (Djokovic, Dimitrov, Paire, Nishikori, Fognini) all won. Kohschreiber is also through, but without playing (Lu withdrew).

Today it rained.


We have the anticipated Djokovic vs Dimitrov though and it could be a good one. It would take a great Dimitrov and an off color Djokovic for an upset to happen though considering how dificult it was for the young Bulgarian to prevail in that 'best of three' match in Madrid.

Not a drop of rain today, so the top half finished its second round and the bottom half its third.

Not much to say about the top half other than Isner [19] and Tipsarevic [8] had to play for five sets against Harrison and Verdasco respectively. Klizan played a very good and aggressive first set against Nadal and won it 6-4, but he could not summon the serenity of a Brands to remain highly competitive the whole way through (despite breaking Nadal in the third and fourth set).

The bottom half was a little more eventful. Robredo managed to barely outlast Monfils. The spaniard has no huge weapon other than his ability to play on an even keel, with great care for placement and shot selection, every single strike in every single rally in every single game from the start to the end of a match. And that is a formidable weapon. This allowed him, after losing the first and second set, to dominate Monfils in the third and to contain his second wind in the fourth, when, carried by the cheers of the public, Monfils managed to break and served for the match. Robredo, 31, who could not play through 2012 because of a surgery to adductor muscles, managed to win back to back matches after being two sets down. This time he even saved 4 match points in the process. Hats off. Almagro will most certainly perform the last rites in the next round though.

There were also two upsets and an epic. Troicki beat Cilic [10] in straight sets, probably boosted by a 14-12 tie-breaker in the first. Anderson [23], also in straight sets, won the battle of the 'big serve, big forehand' guys against [14]. As for the epic, it involved all american Querrey [18] and french hope Simon [15]. The closest match on paper was the expected opposition of styles, with Querrey, feeling good and confident for his first third round showing at the French, attacking and Simon defending and counter-punching. Querrey will have some regrets because leading 2 sets to 1 he fought from a break down in the fourth to win the right to play a tie-breaker that end up being totally one sided in favor of Simon, who also dominated the fifth.

Federer (against a diminished Benneteau), Tsonga (against nervous underdog Chardy) and Ferrer (against fast court specialist Lopez) won with ease.



Tomorrow, I feel that six of the eight matches in the top half are mouth watering. You have a Djokovic vs Dimitrov in a Madrid rematch, a real test of patience for Haas against ace machine Isner, Nadal against a Fognini who has enough weapons to emulate Klizan and Brands, the lanky and fiery Paire against the shorter and slightly introvert Nishikori will replay the age old battle of creativity vs reason, this time in the field of aggressive tennis, Wawrinka and Janowicz will try to see who can blow the cover of the most balls and Gasquet (who, without making much noise, cruised to the third round) will try to break the potentially tough nut that is russian veteran Davydenko. The other two are Hanescu vs Kohlshreiber (which *should* be an easy win for the german) and Tipsarevic vs Youzhny who could turn into a serious dogfight. A good day of tennis ahead!

We do have our round of 16:

Djokovicmade a point to blow away a slightly disappointing Dimitrov and he reaches the fourth round without having to spend much time on court. The only question mark is that near the end of his match he required the trainer to get a shoulder massage, but that did not prevent him to serve hard and to close the match emphatically.
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Kohlschreiberstarted late today, but managed to sprint to the finish line, Hanescu only managing to make the second set close (only to get curb-stomped 7-0 in the tie-breaker).

The german arrives at full health, with confidence and without having spent much energy through his first three rounds. Also, he already beat Djokovic at the French Open, but while I expect a good match and a good challenge from him, I can see him win a set, but not much more. Note that with Djokovic being 1 and Kohlschreiber being 16, that's, on paper, the most unbalanced match possible between two top seeds at this stage.


Haasfound himself the winner of an epic against Isner. Leading two sets to love, the german got dragged into a fourth set where he got no less than 12 match points against a extenuated Isner (played five sets the day before). Standing and serving on fighting spirit alone, the tall american not only forced a tie-breaker, but somehow won it 12-10 and even broke early in the fifth! But as far as fighting spirit go, Haas is not half bad. The veteran clawed is way back to finally prevail 10-8 in the fifth in a little under five hours.
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Youzhnytook benefit of Tipsarevic's poor current form to win in straight sets.

Haas is on paper the favorite of this match, but how fresh will he be in two days? Youzhny is obviously playing well and would have been tough to beat even when at 100%. I fear Haas' victory over Isner cost him a shot at a quarter final against Djokovic and that even if he beats Youzhny in two days, it will be a tough battle that put on top of his epic of the day will not leave much in the tank to try to challenge the World N?1.


Nadalfaced a very good Fognini, but, as expected, a very good Fognini is still not constant enough to create an upset. It was just enough for a lot of entertaining points and three reasonably close sets.
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Nishikoridid not play a great match, but his luck was that he faced the Paire of old (unfocused, irritable), not the Paire of 2013 (focused, calm). So he won in four sets.

I really like how Nishikori plays, but I feel his shots lack penetration to take the game to Nadal like Brands, Klizan and Fognini did. He will have to rely on hitting precise targets to move Nadal around, so out-rally Nadal. A tough ask. Some managed to do it on hard court (Simon in Madrid a few years back comes to mind), but on clay with a return of sunny conditions?


Wawrinkamade things more difficult for himself than they should have been, playing a poor game when serving for the second set, he allowed Janowicz to put his foot in the door. Still, the swiss won in four sets without spending too much time on court.
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Gasquetcontrolled his match against Davydenko with a new found maturity and authority. He pushed at the end of the first two sets to bag them 6-4 and then surfed this wave to win in straight sets.

This could be a close one. Both are playing well in 2013, both arrive fresh and with a lot of confidence, their ranking is in the same ball park... it will really be a matter of who can impose his game upon the other. The swiss probably has an edge in fitness though, so if it becomes a trench battle with hard fought rallies after hard fought rallies during hours, Wawrinka should be the last one standing. That scenario who be a bit of a Pyrrhic victory though, considering Nadal will probably be awaiting the winner.



Robredooutlasted Monfils
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Almagroin cruise control.

Considering how tired Robredo was at the end of his match, I seriously doubt he will be able to produce much of a fight against Almago. Almagro is also very much aware of the opportunity he has. For most of the players ranked 9 to 16, the biggest hurdle in grand slam is not only beating the top dogs, it's reaching them while being fresh enough to be competitive. For an Almagro, potentially reaching a quarter final of a grand slam on the back of 4 easy matches is a great opportunity. That might be a danger also. Robredo will not just fall over, the match needs to be won. So if Robredo resists, Almagro might become a bit frustrated, might rush things and turn the match into a trap.


Andersonbossed Raonic at his own game.
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Ferrerkeep on trucking.

Anderson has weapons and he knows it. Clay gives him a little more time to set for his shots and run around his backhand to dictate play, his size allows him to deal with the high bounce... a good package. On the other side of the net there is a guy that will try to make Anderson run, try to turn defense into attack and generally make things as tough as possible for the south african. Can Anderson execute well enough and long enough to prevail? It's not impossible, but Ferrer is not the fourth seed by accident (well... technically he is, because Murray is injured, but you get the idea: guy is good).


Tsongareminded Chardy who is the boss in french tennis.
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Troickiafter a decent tourney in Dusseldorf ousted 10th seed Cilic in straight sets.

The serbian N?3 is obviously on a good dynamic these past weeks and his straight set victory also allows him to absorb the fatigue accumulated in the five sets match of the previous round. It will be interesting to see if he can play his game and challenge Tsonga or if, like Chardy, he will stay trapped in his shell and be of little threat.


Simonoutlasted Querrey in five.
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Federerdiscarded a slightly injured Benneteau.

Federer cruised though his first three rounds, while Simon had two epics against Hewitt and Querrey. This is a big problem as Simon's shot at beating Federer is to force long rallies where the swiss misses. If your winning strategy is not viable because of your fitness level, you are left with fewer options and none satisfying. Still, like Almagro or Tsonga, Federer could be caught looking ahead, getting nervous and missing because he wants an easy match to be fresh for his next rounds.





All in all, I doubt we will see many upsets in this round of 16. Wawrinka over Gasquet is the most likely, and it's still a 55/45 proposition. Youzhny over Haas is also a distinct possibility if Haas spent too much energy against Isner.

After three rounds, we get a sense of where the top dogs are at. Djokovic, Federer and Ferrer have been impressive, but the swiss and spaniard were allowed to impress because of their easy draw. It's more of a struggle for Nadal, but it's also true that the poor weather does not help his game. Confidence and effectiveness should come back with the sun. There are several strong underdogs for the title that managed to reach the fourth round with ease, so that should make for a great second week.

The bottom half of the draw played today and all four match got completed (several matches ran long, also on the WTA side, so it was not a given).


Ferrer made sure to make things as uncomfortable as possible for Anderson. Refusing to miss, turning defense into attack and then just jerking the tall south african around, forcing him to go for ridiculous shots to escape from the iron grasp of the spaniard. As a result, if Anderson did not manage to win with one of his first three shots, he lost 95% of points. The weight of each lost point added on the shoulders of Anderson, less and less able to find and execute winning paterns. A speedy 6-3 6-1 6-1.

Things went somewhat similarly with Tsonga against Troicki. Breaking early in each set, the powerful frenchman simply did not allow his opponent to hope for an upset. There were maybe three or four games where Troicki managed to resist at the beginning of the second set and maybe the match would have turned differently if he managed to break, but Tsonga played very well on the key points. 6-3 6-3 6-3 victory.

Almagro's match was made of a similar cloth. As expected, Almagro was producing more tennis than Robredo, the veteran being content to extend the rallies and try to make Almagro go for too much. The youngest man on court managed to keep the winner to unforced error ratio high enough to take a two sets to love lead with a break in the third. Robredo at that point was tired and had pain in his arm. But like an horror movie villain, Robredo is not dead until he isreallydead. He came back from two sets down against Sijsling, he came back from two sets down against Monfils, so had no interest in going down without fighting, fighting and fighting some more. He did just that. A point after the next he tried to make things as difficult as possible for Almagro... and Almagro blinked, got broken, tensed up, missed more and lost the third set. Just a minor road bump: Almagro broke first in the fourth and... Robredo roped him back and won the fourth. Not happy with the silly scenario, Almagro pushed once again to break first for a fourth set in a row, but as Robredo somehow found within himself the energy to fight back it was too much for the 11th seed to fathom. So yeah: Robredo won in five sets. Ferrer is warned: if he ever leads by two sets to love, he'll be right where Robredo wants him!

Federer started with Simon just like he ended in Rome. Sharp, aggressive, dictating the rallies, making the frenchman explode. It took six games for Simon to really set foot in the match but he also lost the seventh one in a 10+ minutes behemoth, giving the set to Federer. The first few games of the second set where a lot tighter, but still it's Federer that had the first break points opportunities, but as Simon tried to save one with a deep, flat and pacy backhand cross court, Federer slid to his backhand side to make a defensive shot, missed it and to everyone's surprise found himself on the ground. With the slow motion it was possible to see Federer's foot getting stuck in the clay and him slightly rolling over his ankle. A scary sight and most certainly a scary feeling for Federer. He dusted himself off and resumed playing immediately, but, undoubtedly shaken, his level dropped considerably and Simon broke him immediately which totally turned the match around. Simon, who was playing better since the tail end of the first set, gained additional confidence, while Federer, suddenly more nervous, entered a downward spiral (missed shots -> less confidence -> less clear game plan -> Simon allowed to play better -> more tension -> more missed shots). 45 minutes later Simon had won the second set 6-4 and really was the only player on court in a third set won 6-2. It looked bad. Very bad. Even more so because the match was still far from reaching the two hours mark, making Federer's edge in freshness null and void. Still, beating champions is tough.

If it was in a regular tournament, I am not sure Federer would have put much of a fight, but in a grand slam? The guy fought hard and tried to find a way back into the match. Step one: rebuilding some confidence by cutting drastically on the unforced errors. Step two: make returns, put pressure on second serves. Step 3: try and shake Simon out of his comfort zone. All of this with a positive attitude and positive body language: motivate yourself while sending the message across the net that the war is not over. This worked remarkably well. Suddenly Simon found it a lot harder to win points and chased down drop shots and lobs instead of just running only left and right. The seed of doubt was planted and it blossomed with a couple ridiculous shots by Federer (notably a passing shot down the line played in half-volley and full extension as a counter-punch to a net kill by Simon: insane). The match remained full of tension, but Federer dominated the debates, bagged the fourth set, served first in the fifth, broke first and, despite some serious rear guard action by Simon, closed the match as dusk approached.

The up side for Federer is that he won, that the match was a very shot five setter (3 hours) and that he managed to find his game back during the match. The down side is that his level dropped very low and that against more aggressive opponents, he would not have been able to work himself back into the match. And then there is the question mark: the ankle. At the end of the match, Federer was just as sharp and moving just as well as in the beginning, but this kind of things can go well when hot and turn seriously sour once cold. We'll need to wait until Tuesday to know more, but I am reasonably optimistic considering there was no limping, no medical time-out and, as far as we could tell, no medication taken.

EDIT: In press conference, Federer said he had no pain at all when falling and that he just broke his focus for a bit and his confidence in his footwork for a while. He credited the quality of Simon's game for his inability to get back in the match for a long while.

PS: That was Federer 900th career win. He'll most certainly pass Villas' 923 mark, but Lendl (1071) will be tough to beat and Connors (1243!!!) simply impossible.

PPS: With that win, Federer reaches his 36th Grand Slam quarter final in a row. That's nine years (!!) worth of non-stop quarter final. The longest on-going streak is Djokovic's 15.

I don't know, I would worry about Nadal in the semis against Djokovic. I don't feel as confident about him for some reason, even though he is one some streak this year.