Tennis

It's quarter finals time!

Djokovicstarted a bit flat against Kohschreiber and the german capitalized on it with great opportunism to bag the first set. Kohlschreiber is a top tier guy, but he is stuck navigating between the 30s and the mid teens because he has no big weapon, 'just' a solid all around game. As Djokovic raised his level somewhat from the second set onward, especially on key points. Kohlschreiber could hang around, even create opportunities, but (almost) never break and never reach a 4-4 or 5-5 situation. Djokovic did just enough to win in four sets. It should be noted that Djokovic learned the death of his first coach (almost a second mother for him according to his press conference) which, along the windy condition, could account for his performance of the day.
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Haasis a veteran. An experienced and appeased version of his former self. So when he sees Youzhny is struggling big time with his shots, he makes a point to remain extremely focused, to keep his aggressive yet safe point construction and he does not blink even when the russian pulverizes his racket. Never allowing the russian to enter the match, Haas blizzed through in 1h25.

If Djokovic plays against Haas like he played against Kohlschreiber, he is out in straight sets. If he plays like he played against Dimitrov, Haas will be in trouble. I suspect it will fall somewhere in the middle which could lead to a fun match.



Nadalhad to play a serious set in the first to beat Nishikori, but then, the japanese player became a little too defensive which is rarely a winning proposition against the spaniard.
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Wawrinkawon a match I hardly saw (Only the 3 first games and the last four! Not much in a 4 hours match!). It went the trench war way, with carpet bombing the opponent's positions with winners, resulting in a spectacular match (made possible by their styles and the fact both played well at the same time). Gasquet won the first two sets and Wawrinka clawed his way back in to prevail 8-6 in the fifth against a slightly cramping Gasquet.

Nadal is a bit lucky on this one. Would Wawrinka have won in straight sets he would have been a very very dangerous opponent. Perhaps to the tune of 70/30 in favor of Nadal. The tough, physical battle of the day probably brought that to a 90/10 split. Still, with a day of rest, Wawrinka should arrive a lot fresher than he was in Madrid's final, so it should be a closer contest.



Robredoderailed the Almagro train.
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Ferrerkept on trucking.

Robredo had couple wins over Ferrer in the past, but... yeah... beating Ferrer by defending after playing through three five sets matches sounds about as likely as beating Federer on grass using your wrong hand. Ferrer losing it is also highly unlikely considering he reached the semi finals in 4 of the last 6 Grand Slams.



Tsongastayed the course.
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Federerwas up and down and up.

Tsonga has been extremely impressive in the tournament. Not only because of the quality of his game (much improved backhand!) but also because of the quality of his focus, his relentless quest for excellence and his thirst (he is not here to play the quarter final, he is here to win the title). I still think his return of serve and his defense are not at top dog level, but they are not major liabilities. One of the key will really be good serving on both sides. It's a bit of a clich?, but it's even more true with two players that shine when they attack, not when they defend, as second serves often mean starting the point defending. We had a spell of bad Federer against Simon, but through the rest of the event we had some super sharp Federer so it should be tough for anyone to win this match (but someone will!).

Djoker in 4 tops (maybe straights)
Nadal in 4 (Wawrinka is 0-9 career against Rafa, I doubt the French is where he breaks through)
Ferrer in 3 (maybe Robredo wins a set, but Ferrer isn't the guy I'd want to play after 3 straight 5 setters)
Tsonga in 4 (He's good for one big win in a lot of Slams, I think he gets Federer for his big win this time)

I'll play:

Djokovic in 5 with a 6-1 or 6-2 final set.
Nadal in 4 with Wawrinka winning the first but unable to keep it up.
Ferrer in straight sets with one sided scores in 2nd and 3rd.
Federer in four sets because: Clay.

Well, I gave Feds a set, but I nailed Ferrer in straights and Tsonga beating Feds.

It was a strange match, Tsonga started by serving supremely well, Federer no so much, but he dictated play in almost all the rallies or turned defense into attack in them, making the odd unforced error here and there. So already at 2-2 Tsonga felt the pressure after losing a rally behind a second serve and making an unforced error on a one-two punch (or something similar) and bam! broken. Federer held behind that, confident, in control, sharp, aggressive. He still put pressure on Tsonga in the next return game, but not only did the frenchman held, but he found himself gifted a break of serve... and that's all she wrote really. Federer allowing Tsonga to enter the match, the frenchman grew in confidence and executed brilliantly while Federer tensed up a tad, made a little more errors and couldn't get his serve working. Tsonga giving nothing, Federer getting no free points on serve and still making one or two unforced errors per game made every hold a battle. To make things worse for the swiss, when he went to the net, Tsonga managed to deliver tricky dipping balls with alarming consistency, forcing Federer to volley upward and, as a result, getting an error or a look at a passing shot. To complete the picture, Tsonga kept through the match a very very high first serve percentage (80ish percent - a constant through the tournament as these days he goes for a little less power and more accuracy/variation). In some games it dropped a little, creating little openings for Federer, but Tsonga managed these tense moments very well and only surrendered his serve twice (the first set break included!).

The performance by Federer was decent and it could have been enough if he managed to surf on his early lead and keep Tsonga out of the match, but it would have taken a great Federer to beat the great Tsonga of the day.


That must have a put a smile on Ferrer's face considering he never beat Federer in 15ish meetings and that the only time Tsonga beat him it was on grass (Ferrer winning easily a clay match a couple years back and winning - get this - in straight sets in indoor, in Paris, at the end of last year). I am curious to see how it will go. Oh and yes, as expected, Ferrer made light work of Robredo.

AngryGerbil_sl said:

Tomrrow when Kirilenko plays Azarenka, I'm closing the curtains, locking the doors, and lighting some candles. Just sayin.

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As a big Washington Capitals fan, I will be firmly rooting for Kirilenko.

Merrith_sl said:

Djoker in 4 tops (maybe straights)
Nadal in 4 (Wawrinka is 0-9 career against Rafa, I doubt the French is where he breaks through)
Ferrer in 3 (maybe Robredo wins a set, but Ferrer isn't the guy I'd want to play after 3 straight 5 setters)
Tsonga in 4 (He's good for one big win in a lot of Slams, I think he gets Federer for his big win this time)

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Not that these were hard to pick as long as you picked the Tsonga upset of Feds, but aside from giving some guys a set that didn't get any, I nailed it.

I did not see the matches today

Both favorites managed to win in straight sets, Nadal with a bigger margin than Djokovic. As a result we get the blockbuster Nadal vs Djokovic semi that was both hoped and expected when we saw the draw. From all accounts (including Nadal's), the spaniard played at a very very good level against Wawrinka. From day 1 all said the return of the sun in the 2nd week would help him a lot, and it does. But even with the better conditions, this semi is tough to call. Both are fresh and at full health, both really want to send a clear message across the net, but who will deal the best with the pressure of the occasion? I just read my post about the Monte-Carlo's final and it was all Djokovic when the court was damp and things became more and more balanced as it dried. Friday, the court will be dry right from the start, that should give some hope to the Nadal fans. Djokovic fans can find solace on the fact that Djokovic was struggling with one of his ankle through the evnt in Monte-Carlo and has no such worries currently.

The other semi is Ferrer vs Tsonga. The people of France are ecstatic because it is the 30th anniversary of Noah's title (the last frenchman to have won the title - Pierce, a french woman, won in 2000) and journalists are finding many similarities between his run and Noah's (same seeding, same number of 30+ players in the R16 and other craziness). The extreme quality of his match against Federer certainly legitimizes big hopes. Ferrer does not care. He crushed all opposition on his way to the semi. The thing with Ferrer is that when he step on the court he has a very clear idea of what he wants to do, because he does the same thing in every single match. As a result, he is very very good at executing his game plan. When defending, he looks for depth and placement hoping for a miss or a shorter ball allowing him to turn defense into attack. When attacking, he'll try to hit as many forehand as possible and make you run. And you're going to run a lot because he is very good at running around his backhand and hitting inside out forehands that land almost in the service box, forcing you to cover a ridiculous amount of ground. And if you reach that shot, you are so far past the tramlines that any shot that is not a winner basically gives the point to Ferrer (maybe you will try to lift the ball to give you time to get back into position and you would not be the first: Ferrer is the player who hits the most smashes per season... yep). The corollary of a well executed and clear game plan is that he makes very few unforced error. It sounds trivial, but it has a huge impact: for the opponent to win the majority of the rallies their total of good rallies must be greater than the total of Ferrer's good rallies PLUS the differential in unforced errors. A nut that can only be cracked if you play a very clean and consistent offensive game and/or are able to counter-punch his attacks with regularity, something only the very best are able to do over and over.

Many top players expect their serve to provide them with one or two unreturned serves per game, along with one of two poor returns they can kill. Ferrer, not so much. He serves very few aces, but the silver lining is that he is expecting a return, ready to absorb it if it is good and capitalize on it if it is bad. When the opponent is serving, he makes a lot of returns, more than what your average big server would expect, and then he win a lot of rallies when they start. That combination puts a lot of pressure on the servers ('I need a great first serve or we'll get into an other damn rally' OUT! 'Great! Now we'll have a damn rally and my 2nd better be good or he will make an aggressive return and make me run' OUT!) which results in things like Murray getting broken 10 times in fours sets last year at the French or huge servers like Anderson struggling to even win games.

The new Tsonga certainly has weapons to deal with Ferrer. He has proved his offensive intentions and his consistency. On top of that, his current serving policy (no more huge bombs, but variation, accuracy and high % of 1st serves) should prepare him to accept that a lot of balls will come back and that they will need to be dealt with. If he struggles though, if he gets frustrated, if he goes for too much too soon and, as a result, misses too much (and 'too much', as seen above, does not have to be 'a lot'), Ferrer will be the victor.

Answers on Friday!

Nadal in 4
Ferrer in 5

Nadal in 5
Tsonga in 4

What I would find funny:

Djokovic in 5.
Ferrer in 3.

What will happen:

Nadal in 3.
Tsonga in 3.

So I'm up watching OOOOOOOOOOOO this semi-final OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO and it's really OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO fucking OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO pissing me the OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO fuck off. Fuck these retarded whores.

Adam12_sl said:

So I'm up watching OOOOOOOOOOOO this semi-final OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO and it's really OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO fucking OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO pissing me the OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO fuck off. Fuck these retarded whores.

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^

I realized something amusing the other day: Jankovic does not peep when she plays yet she is the one with the totally broken voice!

Adam12_sl said:

So I'm up watching OOOOOOOOOOOO this semi-final OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO and it's really OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO fucking OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO pissing me the OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO fuck off. Fuck these retarded whores.

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I honestly don't even notice it while watching. Too busy watching the point.

One thing that drives me nuts about women's tennis (even the top players) is just how their game can just completely fall off for an entire set. In the men's game, you'll see some letdowns where a guy will drop a service game, then recover (although it may be enough to cost them a tight set)...but with the women it feels like you see an awful lot of matches where someone drops a set 6-1 or 6-0, then suddenly is able to play better and force a 3rd, or vice versa start off really hot only to blow the 2nd set.