The Astronomy Thread
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Mudcrush Durtfeet
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No, that's the line from old space apologizers to justify massive waste in spending on tired old (and expensive) technologies. What's the point of 'competition' when there's no effort to be efficient (ie cheap). SpaceX has proven it can be done, with the extremely safe Falcon 9 and they did it mostly on their own dime. Their genius rocket engine designer built the first prototype in a cave (garage) out of scraps (not really)! Not actually, but kind of.
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rad
Lord of Guk
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We grew up under a space program that was criminally underfunded and gutted after a few trips to the moon. For this reason I don't view it as one vs the other, it's a waste of time we don't have. I'm just happy money and manpower is being poured into getting us off this fucking rock and so should you.
I came on a little strong Mud, for that I apologize, been reading too much stupidity on this topic today.
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Mudcrush Durtfeet
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meStevo
I think your wife's a bigfoot gus.
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So Russia finally got the Nauka labratory module for ISS into orbit.
www.bbc.com
It's having issues. It's in a parking orbit and can survive there for ~30 orbits, they are preparing to raise it's orbit to reach the ISS with backup propulsion options. Not clear what the problem is as there's been little/no communication about what the issue is.
Russia sends long-delayed module to space station
The 13m-long, 20-tonne Nauka laboratory is finally going into orbit after a delay of 14 years.
www.bbc.com
It's having issues. It's in a parking orbit and can survive there for ~30 orbits, they are preparing to raise it's orbit to reach the ISS with backup propulsion options. Not clear what the problem is as there's been little/no communication about what the issue is.
meStevo
I think your wife's a bigfoot gus.
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ALMA has imaged for the first time a moon-forming disc around an exoplanet. Fucking amazing.
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Tripamang
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Large spaceships won't be manufactured on earth but the moon. Nuclear powered rockets whether they're ion driven or thermal produce enough thrust to get off the lunar surface. I imagine large space tugs being built first allowing something like a starship to preserve its fuel for take off/landing at the destination. Then they attach themselves back to the tug to head to their destination.
It's very inefficient to build things on earth and lift them to orbit vs space manufacturing. I would be surprised if space construction doesn't make the internet boom look like a small blip over the next 20 years. Space stations will allow for the creation of states with their own governments. City states in space on demand, there hasn't been anything like this in modern times and it will create government competition vs the stagnation were stuck in now. Not to mention all the fun stuff material science can do in 0g. Mine in deep space and just drop the materials down to earth to sell.
It's very inefficient to build things on earth and lift them to orbit vs space manufacturing. I would be surprised if space construction doesn't make the internet boom look like a small blip over the next 20 years. Space stations will allow for the creation of states with their own governments. City states in space on demand, there hasn't been anything like this in modern times and it will create government competition vs the stagnation were stuck in now. Not to mention all the fun stuff material science can do in 0g. Mine in deep space and just drop the materials down to earth to sell.
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meStevo
I think your wife's a bigfoot gus.
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Yeah, a lot of this is just a matter of getting through certain hurdles. Even if Starship is only a fraction as successful as planned, the ability to get that much mass into orbit with any kind of tempo and at a relatively small cost will be a seismic shift for many of the related industries and professions. That alone would enable a lot of what you describe.
The frustrating part about this particular hurdle is all it's really needed is someone to want to do it. So for that I am especially thankful for SpaceX. If there was no SpaceX and Russia or China (more likely) mustered the resources to do this kind of thing, I wonder what it would take for us to ever catch up. The latter are already constructing a station on their own, who knows what their plans for the next decade looks like.
After that, I think creating fuel on Mars could be the next big catapult into wherever we want to go next in the solar system (mining the belt, exploration of outer planets).
My big kinda irrational/ignorant ask is I want commodity-ized spacecraft platforms. Instead of making a single specialized craft over years to send on a 20 year mission, I want to see flexible platforms able to be fitted with a variety of tools allowing us to always have 1-2 Cassini-class probes around every single notable body in the solar system. Really nothing unrealistic about that, just a matter of wanting to do it and funding. I want to drown in all the science that would open up to us and subsequent generations.
Tripamang
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It makes no sense to me why we invest years figuring out how to build something like James Webb or Hubble then build one and stop. They are over booked and it's near impossible to get time on them and I have to imagine it wouldn't double the cost to build another one or dozens. Then again there is the defense contractor screw over so it would probably triple the price to build two.
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Mudcrush Durtfeet
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To some extent they're to give companies money. A company makes a lot more money on the first James Webb telescope with all the cost overruns and extended payments as the thing drags on and on. You don't get all that once you've streamlined the product; the company would rather have a new bloated project to get paid tons of money on.
The delays and cost overruns on Webb are sinful.
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Kiroy
Marine Biologist
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I have a feeling that very shortly after spacex lands anything on mars (not humans), they'll be announcing either a pivot or duel goal to a moon base for this exact reason. It will be so much cheaper and quicker to get equipment and humans in any meaningful numbers to mars.
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Mudcrush Durtfeet
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Nope.
This requires massive infrastructure in space that does not exist and won't until we first build stuff on Earth and send it to space. A _lot_ of stuff.
You can't build spacecraft on the moon without the ability to fabricate stuff there, and that will take a ton of efficient and rapid cadence launches to space from the surface of the Earth. Maybe after twenty years?
Meanwhile, to GET to that point you need cheap and efficient access to space. Those of you that have been reading my posts know where I'm going with this but I'll say it anyway: SpaceX.
No one else is going to do this near term, not China, not (lol) BO, not the ESA. ULA is the opposite of this (hi, SLS 1B a launch, one launch per year, lol).
It's SpaceX or bust, at least in the near term.
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Tripamang
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lol I love your confidence.
You're thinking about having to build everything on the moon when you don't really have to. You could mine iron, refine it and then 3D print the pieces of the ship, just simple body portions (heaviest pieces) and then assemble it together on the moon. The more complicated pieces like the engines, computers, etc could still be manufactured on earth and shipped up the moon. As time goes on more and more of the manufacturing moves into space as your ability to build on the moon increases.
There are companies already working on the robots for strip mining, modules to refine iron in space and 3D printing steel structures. NASA is spending money to push these ideas forward as well with the expectation that Artemis becomes self sustaining. That's only going to happen if industry moves to the moon and quickly. Will they be building human rated ships in space by the end of the decade? probably not but structural pieces and habitats? Absolutely. Once it starts raining money things will move quickly and those ships will get built quickly as it's not feasible to build the kind of ships industry would need on earth and put them into space. The moon is easily the most valuable piece of space real estate and once people start claiming pieces of it there will be a gold rush to stake their piece.
Mudcrush Durtfeet
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There is as of yet no miners or fabricators in space. These things will take heavy lift to get up there. It would be best if that heavy lift was high cadence and low cost. If it isn't such a project isn't going to fly, I guarantee it. We'll go to the moon, plant a flag, maybe a small outpost depending on supply from Earth, and that's it. No in-situ resource utilization when each trip to the moon costs 1B just for the rocket.
I'm all for asteroid mining and construction in space. I'm just saying we won't actually do that until the cost of access to space comes down dramatically, which isn't something old-space type companies (or BO) seem to be interested in doing (or in the case of BO able to do).
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Cybsled
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You can’t refine/manufacture stuff in space until you have the infrastructure in place to do those things. Like he mentioned, cheap access to space is key to achieving that, because it lowers initial investment costs and gets you to a break even point faster, assuming what you sell can achieve that. No fusion reactors yet, so He3 mining isn’t viable yet. Precious metals questionable. Therefore your customers would have to be space based and manufacture on site is cheaper than shipping it up there, or the only viable way to get that up there. Even with an optimistic outlook, you’re realistically many decades away from that
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Mudcrush Durtfeet
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Falcon 9 being a cheaper access to space hasn't really been used as much as it could be (by non-SpaceX customers) as there's a lot of pressure on people not to use SpaceX, at least in some cases (ie ESA). Still, Starlink is an example of the sort of thing that is possible with cheaper access to space. Starlink has a lot of opposition from local ISP providers in various parts of the world and also from countries etc with their own space program (a lot of Europe is trying to ban use of Starlink). Viasat has been using legal warfare trying to delay more Starlink launches (they cite concerns about 'night sky light pollution affecting the natural havitats of various species, which is complete bunk).
It is my hope that there will be more willingness to try to do stuff in space when the cost goes down after Starship gets going. Only time will tell.
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Things like asteroid mining and construction in space will only happen commercially when there is a profit to it. It's hard to see how that will be the case without cheap access to space.
Unless SpaceX does it to help with their mission of colonizing Mars, of course.
It is my hope that there will be more willingness to try to do stuff in space when the cost goes down after Starship gets going. Only time will tell.
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Things like asteroid mining and construction in space will only happen commercially when there is a profit to it. It's hard to see how that will be the case without cheap access to space.
Unless SpaceX does it to help with their mission of colonizing Mars, of course.
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Tripamang
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There are exposed meteorites that are pure iron, collect, crush, print. Iron is 0.5% of the surface dust and can be easily separated with magnets and fed directly into 3d additive printers. Laser additive printers would have no issue working in low gravity.
Power can be driven by small nuclear reactors which we already have designs for or solar panels. The hard part is getting up there and starship will likely make it feasible to put these on the surface.
None of the shit we need for the moon doesn't already exist and you're being a bunch of negative nancies for thinking this is going to take decades. All it takes is one company to make it work and there will be a flood of them to follow.
Cybsled
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Sure, tech can exist. Doesn't mean it is cheap. Plus some of the things proposed would have their own challenges in terms of how to process them without ready access to certain things, like water (since you need water for keeping people alive, and there is less of it, you dont want to waste it on manufacturing)
Mudcrush Durtfeet
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You make it sound so simple. but I'm pretty sure it isn't.
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