The Big Bad Console Thread - Sway your Station with an Xboner !
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Lord Nagafen Raider
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i forgot that people on this forum don't play mmos anymore. i figured everyone had heard the x360 / wow was the 1st mmo troll in general chat....
They didn't last year either, E3 did a pretty good job of killing itself over the last few years and a lot of JPN devs focus goes towards Tokyo Game Show at end of summer. They'll still have new games there to play.
People still think this?
The 3ds is losing forward momentum every momentum every month. Like I said several times already, it's down in sales YOY in the US for 8 months in a row. Do you not know what that means?
Look at this chart -
In the next month or two, the 3ds is going to fall behind the DS, and the DS is about to take off in a big way, too, with the launch of the DS lite and blue ocean games like "Brain Age" and the like.
You can parrot that "it's sold more than the ds in the same timeframe!" line as much as you want, but it's disingenuous spin that doesn't tell the whole story.
Nintendo's war chest is shrinking at a rapid pace. Since March 2011, Nintendo has used up around $3 billion of its war chest. That leaves them with $10.8 billion, which, of course, is a ginormous amount of money, but one that could quickly be used up if they're unable to reverse their current fortunes.
The real worry for Nintendo isn't going bankrupt or whatever. It's being bought out by a company like Disney that can take over their IPs and run them to the ground. The chances of this happening increases with every quarterly loss they report.
This year, Nintendo was projected to post an operating loss of $180 million. Both analysts and Nintendo themselves predicted such a loss. They lost $360 million instead.
Last year, they posted a loss of $458 million.
You keep saying Nintendo's making money, but they're not. They're losing money hand over first.
The Wii U isn't making them money. The 3ds isn't making them much money. And they're going to be killing production of the DS and the Wii later this year.
The company will be well and truly fucked in a few years if they don't turn things around in a big way. I doubt that'll happen, though, since Iwata, their CEO, seems to be an incompetent, out of touch buffoon. He needs to be ousted and a new CEO needs to take his place - I don't see him being able to reverse Nintendo's fortunes.
It's really frustrating reading your posts because it shows how ignorant you are to the facts. Instead of making claims like "Nintendo haters are only complaining that Nintendo isn't making more money than it used to!", look at the figures. They're a public company with open financial records, so we can see exactly how well they're doing.
Back up your points with hard data and maybe then I'll be able to take your posts seriously.
Shocker, they've not posted gains coming off R&D years with a failing console launch. They'd be making money if not for that. The 3DS isn't as doomed as you think it is and your doom and gloom about it is hilarious. It's not a failure and it's not going anywhere, especially with how the Japanese market for handhelds is (the US is not the be all end all measuring stick for everything). It's also going to get a retardedly huge boost in October. The handheld market is going to exist and be profitable for them as long as they don't shit the bed on supporting it with software, the only hitch it had was the 3DS's launch price.
You're right in that their management is incompetent, but that's all on the Wii U side of things.
You're right in that their management is incompetent, but that's all on the Wii U side of things.
So, let's look at the 3ds directly.
In last years financial report, Nintendo predicted it to sell 18.5 million units worldwide over the coming year. In their Q3 2012 report, they reduced this figure to 17.5 million. In their Q4 2012 report, they reduced this figure to 15 million.
In the end, the 3ds sold 14 million worldwide. Only a fool would consider this performance to be a success.
Ok, so let's look at where the 3ds is selling well and where it's not.
Source:http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2013/130424e.pdf; First column shows FY2011 sales, second column shows FY2012 sales
So, the 3ds is performing better in Japan (18% better, in fact), but it's down in the US, and it's down in Europe and other countries around the world. If we look at the total shipped figures worldwide, Nintendo shipped only slightly more units last year than they did the year before. We can also see that the Japanese market isn't much bigger than either the US or the Europe/other countries markets.
At this point in their lifecycles, the DS, the Gameboy, and all of Nintendo's other handhelds, were picking up steam and showing massive YOY increases in sales numbers. The 3ds is, however, showing very little growth YOY worldwide, and negative growth in markets outside of Japan.
Nintendo has predicted sales of 18 million for this upcoming financial year. I don't see that happening. It's not outside of the realms of possibility that the 3ds could sell less in the next financial year than it did in the last financial year, which is crazy.
Maybe Pokemon can turn it around? I guess the strength of that brand will truly be tested this year.
In last years financial report, Nintendo predicted it to sell 18.5 million units worldwide over the coming year. In their Q3 2012 report, they reduced this figure to 17.5 million. In their Q4 2012 report, they reduced this figure to 15 million.
In the end, the 3ds sold 14 million worldwide. Only a fool would consider this performance to be a success.
Ok, so let's look at where the 3ds is selling well and where it's not.
Source:http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2013/130424e.pdf; First column shows FY2011 sales, second column shows FY2012 sales
So, the 3ds is performing better in Japan (18% better, in fact), but it's down in the US, and it's down in Europe and other countries around the world. If we look at the total shipped figures worldwide, Nintendo shipped only slightly more units last year than they did the year before. We can also see that the Japanese market isn't much bigger than either the US or the Europe/other countries markets.
At this point in their lifecycles, the DS, the Gameboy, and all of Nintendo's other handhelds, were picking up steam and showing massive YOY increases in sales numbers. The 3ds is, however, showing very little growth YOY worldwide, and negative growth in markets outside of Japan.
Nintendo has predicted sales of 18 million for this upcoming financial year. I don't see that happening. It's not outside of the realms of possibility that the 3ds could sell less in the next financial year than it did in the last financial year, which is crazy.
Maybe Pokemon can turn it around? I guess the strength of that brand will truly be tested this year.
Wombat
Trakanon Raider
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The 3DS will not sell as well as the DS or GBA did. No handheld ever will again; that marketshare is lost to phones.
That said, there's nothing stopping the 3DS from being a profitable system with more than enough games to justify its existence. This fiscal year was just bad development timing - next fiscal year should be monstrous.
As to the Wii U, yet again, the issue is that it came out too close to the 3DS. Nintendo's strength, and their weakness, is that they have the same teams work on console and handheld games. It's a strength when a handheld Kart or Mario sells tens of millions of copies; its a weakness when they can't start on Wii U games until those 3DS entries are finished. Too many of those development teams were working on 3DS games until late in 2011; we'll see if they even make it out this calendar year. (Personally, I hope some don't make it out this year. A two year dev cycle on new hardware menas they would be rushed to hell, and frankly, next year's Wii U lineup would be barren.)
That said, there's nothing stopping the 3DS from being a profitable system with more than enough games to justify its existence. This fiscal year was just bad development timing - next fiscal year should be monstrous.
As to the Wii U, yet again, the issue is that it came out too close to the 3DS. Nintendo's strength, and their weakness, is that they have the same teams work on console and handheld games. It's a strength when a handheld Kart or Mario sells tens of millions of copies; its a weakness when they can't start on Wii U games until those 3DS entries are finished. Too many of those development teams were working on 3DS games until late in 2011; we'll see if they even make it out this calendar year. (Personally, I hope some don't make it out this year. A two year dev cycle on new hardware menas they would be rushed to hell, and frankly, next year's Wii U lineup would be barren.)
I'm not sure about the next fiscal year, but I agree on everything else you're saying. The 3ds will be a profitable system overall, and it will be a great handheld for gamers.
So what's the problem? Well, in the past, Nintendo's handheld division would make up for the poor relative performance of its home console division. The 3ds will not do this. It's not generating anywhere enough revenue or profit to cover the losses experienced by the Wii U which is causing Nintendo to dip into its war chest, the only thing protecting them from being bought up by Disney or some other huge company.
No company wants to merely "tread water", either. They want to, and have to, grow and expand their customer base. The 3ds is not doing this.
I think Nintendo's main problem with the Wii U was arrogance. They could have used the massive profits from the DS and Wii to scale up their operations and prepare for the upcoming generation, but they didn't. They simply assumed that people would love the tablet gimmick and they'd buy a Wii U based on the name alone.
Unfortunately, I can't find the exact quote, but Iwata actually stated that the Wii U software drought was planned out in advance (edit - found it;http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/stoc...0629qa/04.html). They said that, in the past, Nintendo's first party software had overshadowed third party software, and that they were taking steps to ensure that this doesn't happen again.
This mess is of Nintendo's own making.
I wasn't really saying anything contrary to what you were Cor, I just think you were sounding a bit too "the sky is falling" with the 3DS. It's a good system that's doing fine and will continue to do fine even with the market for it shrinking due to smartphones and western gaming habbits (handhelds will sell forever in Japan due to their train commuting culture). Nintendo has done a good job with it.
Nintendo's just totally, completely, utterly fucked up with the Wii U and it's one of the biggest mistakes they've ever made, if not the biggest (easily second if not the first).
Software sells their game systems and they launched it with dick all for software and there isn't any of it even on the horizon. They're not making an E3 showing this year, because all they have for the holidays is a fucking Wind Waker HD remake.
The Wii U debacle is what's really, truly fucking them, not anything they've done with the 3DS and the market for it.
Nintendo's just totally, completely, utterly fucked up with the Wii U and it's one of the biggest mistakes they've ever made, if not the biggest (easily second if not the first).
Software sells their game systems and they launched it with dick all for software and there isn't any of it even on the horizon. They're not making an E3 showing this year, because all they have for the holidays is a fucking Wind Waker HD remake.
The Wii U debacle is what's really, truly fucking them, not anything they've done with the 3DS and the market for it.
I guess we have different expectations, then.
If you look at the 3ds on its own, it's obviously performing decently well, but when you compare it against Nintendo's previous handhelds, it's performing incredibly poorly. If I still owned Nintendo stock (I don't; I luckily sold mine before the Wii craze died down), I'd be so pissed off right now based purely on the performance of the 3ds.
The biggest question going forwards will undoubtedly be: "What about Nintendo's next handheld?". Maybe Nintendo has something secret that will blow people away. Maybe they won't. I think they'll find it even harder to convince customers to buy a dedicated handheld in the future. It'll be interesting to see.
Yeah, I don't think something's a failure if it's not ridiculously successful, that's just unrealistic. You can't expect everything to be a DS or Wii nor should you.
I don't think Nintendo will have a problem with future handhelds as long as there are quality games to buy (and as long as the Japanese spend hours sitting on trains every day). If Nintendo doesn't keep up the software quality it is absolutely doomed, but if you build it they will come. The 3DS has great software and it is selling quite well considering the shifting market. The Wii U has no software (or not enough anyways), no killer apps, and will not sell because of it.
Likewise, I am extremely worried about Microsoft's future. They need more than third party crossplatform games (that are likely to be inferior, given the "known" system specs) and Halo/Gears/Forza to sell big. I honestly do not think they can count on selling the system on just those games and pushing it as some kind of "Entertainment Hub" when so much of that stuff is baked right into new TVs and every other device now a days. I think they're also going to be doubly fucked if they continue to charge a subscription for services that are free everywhere else.
Lenas
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Well, that's what's expected of a public company. It's not enough to tread water, public companies need to build on their previous successes and top them.
Look at Nintendo's share prices over the last 5 years -
Stockholder confidence in Nintendo is at Gamecube levels.
Iwata has said that Nintendo will be aiming for a $100 million operating profit for this upcoming financial year. It'll be interesting to see whether they can manage that.
Well, if the 3ds continues to trend negatively YOY, as a shareholder, I'd be asking why. I'd be asking why Nintendo has yet to release tablet/smartphone games, and I'd want to know what their plans are to reverse their current fortunes.
The big problem Nintendo will need to face in the future is the continued growth of smartphone/tablet gaming.
The games are getting better all the time. Looking at this forum, the most popular thread, by far, is the "puzzles and dragons" thread, a thread dedicated to a mobile game for ios and android.
Also, once technologies like haptic feedback (http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/arch...creens-to-life) become commonplace in smartphones and tablets (which will happen sometime in the next few years), touchscreens will be able to mimic the tactile feedback of buttons, so control interfaces on touchscreens will be able to match the fidelity of dedicated handheld gaming systems with buttons like the 3DS.
Developers are also learning that there's a lot more money to be made in the smartphone/tablet marketplace than originally expected.
Ever heard of Supercell? They're a small Finnish mobile developer with about 60 employees. They've got two ios games out on the ios app store - Clash of Clans and Hay Day. 6 months ago, they were making $500,000 in revenue every day. A few weeks ago, they were up to $2.4 million daily (http://www.forbes.com/sites/karstens...-company-ever/)
And Supercell is just one of hundreds of developers making money on the App Store.
I don't know how to feel about the next gen consoles. There's far too much uncertainty there.
I do worry about Microsoft's future, though, especially with Balmer at the helm.
The next Xbox will determine whether entering the console market was a smart move for Microsoft or not.
Looking at the success of the Xbox and the 360, it can easily be argued that Microsoft made a mistake entering this marketplace purely based on opportunity cost. What if they had assigned the resources they had dedicated to the Xbox team to their smartphone and tablet divisions. Microsoft may have been dominating the tablet/smartphone markets rather than Apple and Samsung.
Balmer simply has a lack of vision. I'd love to see someone new at the helm over there.
Tuco
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I think Sean is totally wrong about almost everything he's said in this thread, but that graph is a little misleading. 2008 had a huge crazy run up on Nintendo's share price.
They've already made all their announcements prior to E3 via Nintendo Direct - but they will still be present with playable Wii U versions of Mario Kart, Smash Bros, and maybe the new 3D Mario game. Should be some more concrete dates and title announcements at TGS in September - hopefully some more info on the new Xenoblade title.
Instead of spending millions on some crazy press conference when they already lost money this year, they been sending their announcements straight to every user with Nintendo Direct for hardly any cost.
Unlike Sony or Microsoft's game divisions, Nintendo has made a profit on every console/handheld they have sold for over 20 years. Do you know what 20 years of no profit loss get you?
Here's the exact quote taken from a feature in the Feb. 2012 issue of the UK's Nintendo Gamer magazine:
"Buried in reams of financial data is the revelation that Nintendo have 812.8 billion Yen (?6.7/$10.5 billion) in the bank - enough for it to take a 20 billion Yen loss (?163/$257 million) every year until 2052. Then there's almost 469 billion Yen (?3.8/$6.0 billion) held in premises, equipment and investments. When that runs out - we're in the year 2075 by this point - they've got some of the most valuable intellectual property in gaming to sell off before the company goes out of business."
Nintendo has tons of money in the bank just for times such as these (years with lots of research and dev costs, barren software periods, etc), they aren't doomed or going bankrupt because of 2 less than projected years. Obviously the amount of money in the bank isn't the be all end all to being a healthy company, but Nintendo can afford to make some mistakes.
Yeah, I'm sure being more and more successful is expected of them, but life rarely ever works out that way and markets change, shit happens, etc. I'd be surprised if Nintendo ever starts releasing their IPs on mobile platforms that aren't their own. They are super protective of their IPs. I think it'd be more likely that Nintendo would try their own foray into smartphones/mobile devices than for them to develop games for someone else's system. That's just how they are. It could very well end up being their downfall, but I think it's too soon to make that call. Nintendo can still pick themselves back up and clean up this mess they've created.
Touchscreen tech may be able to somewhat replicate the tactile feel of buttons at some point, but it will never be a replacement for Analog sticks. There are games that you just cannot make without them. Smartphones are never going to be able to replace a dedicated handheld device for certain control inputs + ergonomic factor unless the form factor on them changes and I doubt anyone is going to change the form factor of smartphones to accommodate games.
Also, I have my doubts of the mobile game market staying as powerful as it is. Yeah, people are spending absurd amounts of money on it, but it's pretty much Facebook Games all over again and that took a massive hit for good reason. Most of them are made to milk people for money and they will wise up at some point or get bored of it just like they did before. It's a Golden Goose right now, but it is far from proving itself to have longevity in its current state.
Puzzles and Dragons isn't a popular thread because it is some great and wonderful game, it's just the board's flavor of the month Mobile Card Game. It's just another addictive little CCG that won't last forever, interest will wane, and it will forever be forgotten soon or later.
Did Microsoft entering the console market exclude them from entering the mobile market sooner than they did somehow? I thought they had more resources than that.
I don't think them entering the console market was a mistake at all (for consumers anyways) and I am certainly glad they did. With how much both Nintendo and Sony fucked up this last generation we'd be in a really terrible place right now without Microsoft. Can you imagine how dismal the market would look if we had to deal with the PS3 for another 2-3 years (Sony's projected life cycle) and god knows what awful, inane hardware they'd be using on the PS4.
Thankfully Microsoft has lit the fires under Sony's ass and pushed them into a corner that they've come out swinging marvelously from. It's just a shame that it's now Microsoft that's been dropping the ball the last few years, they really need to pull out something amazing.
I think this coming generation is going to end up a bit different from the last one. Right now Microsoft dominates in 3rd party cross-platform sales in the NA market and hardware sold in the NA market, but I think that dominance in North America is coming to an end. That happened largely due to Sony's fuck ups with being a year late, overpriced, poor online structure, and not shipping with a headset (this was actually a fairly substantial contributor). Things will probably be a lot more even there this time.
Meanwhile Sony will likely maintain their lead in Europe (or more likely extend it quite a bit) and complete dominance in Japan. I'm interested in seeing what Microsoft tries to do to court the Japanese market and I think it'd take an absolute miracle for them to buy into the X720 at all.