I'd be shocked if both the PS4 and 720 don't start in the $400-$450 range.
If MS offers a subscription plan, it'll A) be $200 and $15/24 months, and B) not launch until after the Holidays so they can maximize the early adopter money.
Edits: I prefer the PS2controller. What sexual orientation does that make me?
As to Gaikai, it worked surprisingly well if you were near their servers, and mediocrely elsewhere. If Sony has any clue they will initially lock it behind the PS+ paywall as a strictly bonus feature until they can evaluate how well it scales with added users/geographical area.
As to mandatory Kinect2, it all depends on what "calibrated" means (and entails). If they even need 3 feet in front of the cameras free at all times, they are out of their minds and guaranteed last place. If they need it once, they will probably get significant consumer complaints but will still be a valid product. If its smart enough to just use the microphone, or just the top half of players (if someone is laying down on a bed with the console nearby), then there won't be an issue.
As to conspiracy theories about the Kinect2, if it fed stills or even a stream back to MS, the EU would be so up MS' ass in a heartbeat. MS might be dumb enough to try it, but it wouldn't stay active beyond one week or so before it was sued out of commission.
