The Earthquake and Tsunami Thread. AKA Kiss Your Ass Goodbye

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Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
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I do want to point out that he predicted a 4.5 this morning between New Zealand and Indonesia, and they got a 4.6 a few hours later.
 
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Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
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I just don't think the USGS has any clue. This Dr. Lucy Jones talks a good game, but she seems to just use probabilities a lot and not actually analyzing anything.

For instance, the USGS put out their statement of "what they think will happen next." https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthqu...8FIUnHJ4ME81ujPFsZpLnIf_eYEqVrolAohcr4wDweQRU

  • The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 3 or higher is > 99 %, and it is most likely that as few as 55 or as many as 120 such earthquakes may occur in the case that the sequence is re-invigorated by a larger aftershock.
  • The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 5 or higher is 56 %, and it is most likely that as few as 0 or as many as 4 such earthquakes may occur.
  • The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher is 8 %, and it is most likely that as few as 0 or as many as 2 such earthquakes may occur.
  • The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher is 1 in 100, such an earthquake is possible but with a low probability.

This was made about 1pm on 7/6. Since, we've had 97 3.0+ quakes here. But that 120 number was the high end for the week. We'll hit that by the end of today, 2 days after their statement.

They also said there was like a 6% chance of a quake higher than the 6.4 happening. Yeah, you can say that 6% is still a chance, but it was pretty unlikely. Meanwhile the DutchSinse guy predicted both the 6.4 and 7.1.

The thing that fucks with my head is that we're still getting an earthquake about every other minute. Constantly. It hasn't let up.
 
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Bubbles

2022 Asshat Award Winner
<Bronze Donator>
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no need to worry
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iannis

Musty Nester
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I just don't think the USGS has any clue. This Dr. Lucy Jones talks a good game, but she seems to just use probabilities a lot and not actually analyzing anything.

For instance, the USGS put out their statement of "what they think will happen next." https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthqu...8FIUnHJ4ME81ujPFsZpLnIf_eYEqVrolAohcr4wDweQRU



This was made about 1pm on 7/6. Since, we've had 97 3.0+ quakes here. But that 120 number was the high end for the week. We'll hit that by the end of today, 2 days after their statement.

They also said there was like a 6% chance of a quake higher than the 6.4 happening. Yeah, you can say that 6% is still a chance, but it was pretty unlikely. Meanwhile the DutchSinse guy predicted both the 6.4 and 7.1.

The thing that fucks with my head is that we're still getting an earthquake about every other minute. Constantly. It hasn't let up.

Maybe not. That's a lot of energy being dissipated. The fall from 3.0+ down to 2.5+ is probably drastic, timewise. The fall from 6 to 3 was drastic.

You'll get 120+ 3's and then you'll have like 2 weeks of sporadic 2's as large volumes of earth settle into a new level.

Unless i'm wrong, and you're just unlucky as fuck, and one of these little 3's triggers a fault and you get another 7. Seems like something that could happen! But you'd really have to analyze the fault lines to even have an idea if it might.
 
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SeanDoe1z1

Avatar of War Slayer
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One of my coworkers sent me a link to this DutchSinse guy (he's on YouTube and Twitch under that name).

He's been saying the USGS is full of shit and that earthquakes on the other side of the planet absolutely flow to other areas (basically force on a plate in one area will transfer to other areas of the plate).

As such, he's expecting a 7.5 here (or close by), unless we start seeing 4's and 5's start spreading out towards Oklahoma and Texas. Otherwise the energy just keeps building up until we get a big one.

So now it's, do I trust the USGS that this is basically over, or the internet guy whose science makes sense, and that we may get another large quake in the next 4 days?
There was a 3 something in OK in last 24hrs. Minor
 
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Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Getting shaky again. I'm thinking the big one will likely hit today. Possibly in the next hour or two.
 
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MusicForFish

Ultra Maga Instinct
<Prior Amod>
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Getting shaky again. I'm thinking the big one will likely hit today. Possibly in the next hour or two.
Well get away from the west coast. Nothing wrong with a sudden vaca. Stay safe fam.


I imagine therapists make a killing down there.
 
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Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Got a 5.0 while at work today. Been like a month since we've had a decent sized earthquake, and I'm fucking over it again.

I haven't quite figured out the "Origin" magnitudes that USGS reports, because some of those reported it as big as 6. I'm not sure how they average them out to equal what they say it is.

It didn't feel like a 6, but definitely felt bigger than 5 (lasted a good 4-5 seconds, too).

Example: https://prod-earthquake.cr.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ci38996632/origin/magnitude

Click the Station Details and you'll see upper 5's and 6's.
 
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Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Another earthquake hit the Juan de Fuca fracture zone off Oregon, this time a 6.4.

I'd expect a 5.5 - 6.5 earthquake to hit somewhere in California in the next week. I'd say if you live in CA, better get prepared just in case.

Chances are it hits Ridgecrest again, but there's no reason not to be prepared.

Editing this post at 20:41 on 9/2. Making a prediction that we get a 5.8-6.3 earthquake between 16:00-17:00 on 9/4. Completely unlikely I'll be correct, but I noticed a sequence that mirrors the one we had starting 8/16. If I'm right though, man would it blow your fucking mind or what?
 
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