The Mandalorian & Grogu (2026)

Tsar Bomba

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Bald Brah said:
That doesn't make sense. All the other Mandolorian shows made zero dollars theatrically. It's not like they did anything different filming this. It's a couple TV show episodes they stitched together into a 2 hour movie.
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It’s getting killed in the International market plus now it’s getting pulled early from IMAX theaters for Masters Of The Univrse - which wasn’t really scheduled for it. So Lisa Obsession dethroned it this weekend. It is a big loss for Disney
 
Kaige

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First half wasn't bad, but the second half was all over the place. Any scene with a Hutt involved was pretty dumb.
 
spronk

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Tsar Bomba said:
Yes. Because it needs to clear at least 600 million to break even. And it's not going to make that.
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that number makes no sense, the budget is in the $150-175m range and with marketing push it'd need to clear $300m to turn a profit. Which it likely will with international but it would be a "we spent $300m to make $50 of profit" kinda shitty scenario.

but thats not the point, as bald is pointing out this was originally intended just to be season 4 but got turned into a movie. Any theatrical money is a bonus, not the goal. It'll play forever as the finale for the Mandalorian show in a few weeks, and it'll draw a trickle of new Disney+ subs who will watch Mando right after they sub. Forever. The theatrical box office is a bonus.

now of course if the movie had made $800m+ it would have unlocked Filoni completely and we would see an Ahsoka movie, a Thrawn movie, a Bad Batch movie, a Rebels movie, on and on. All that shit is shut down now, it pretty much confirms the theatrical box office ceiling is extremely low for Star Wars tv show spin off movies.

the bigger gamble is the Gosling Starfighter movie. If that also bombs then Lucas has no open paths at all other than rebooting Star Wars. Probably also means we won't see much movement on other Star Wars movies until its out.
 
jayrebb

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spronk said:
that number makes no sense, the budget is in the $150-175m range and with marketing push it'd need to clear $300m to turn a profit. Which it likely will with international but it would be a "we spent $300m to make $50 of profit" kinda shitty scenario.

but thats not the point, as bald is pointing out this was originally intended just to be season 4 but got turned into a movie. Any theatrical money is a bonus, not the goal. It'll play forever as the finale for the Mandalorian show in a few weeks, and it'll draw a trickle of new Disney+ subs who will watch Mando right after they sub. Forever. The theatrical box office is a bonus.

now of course if the movie had made $800m+ it would have unlocked Filoni completely and we would see an Ahsoka movie, a Thrawn movie, a Bad Batch movie, a Rebels movie, on and on. All that shit is shut down now, it pretty much confirms the theatrical box office ceiling is extremely low for Star Wars tv show spin off movies.

the bigger gamble is the Gosling Starfighter movie. If that also bombs then Lucas has no open paths at all other than rebooting Star Wars. Probably also means we won't see much movement on other Star Wars movies until its out.
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The marketing spend on Starfighter will be the largest, since it's their last chance to engage fans again.

The fallout from Grogu affects the Filoni verse. No big deal. Mostly C level stuff. Thrawn was already botched.

Now the fallout, if any, from Starfighter will affect the big name AAA directors like Mangold and Taika.

Thats where the damage to the franchise will be done. The AAA side of things losing their development deals and the budgets for AAA productions no longer being authorized. That's the real damage. Disney was never going to hand Filoni a blank check for any of his projects.

Losing the shit ass Filoniverse on the big screen is small fries.

Made for TV B level writing and directing were never going to be the future of the franchise. I dont care how many fan boys he's got.
 
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Cybsled

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His animated stuff has always been well received and most of the newer Star Wars fans are kids who cut their teeth on the Clone Wars cartoon because the new trilogy failed in terms of bringing in new people.

I read that this movie won't be presented as a movie on D+ and rather it will be cut up to show as a mini-series/truncated Mando season.
 
Goatface

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estimate -69%, would be a new sw record,

social media pointing out, no live action sw film as been out side the top 5 in week number 3. guess there is a chance with he-man and scary movie next week.
 
Wombat

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In regards to profitability, the number is actually much closer to needing to hit $500M than not.

The "production budget" is listed at $165M. But that doesn't include a major amount in advertising, reportedly at least $100M (remember when their Super Bowl ad had nothing from the movie, and we all thought that was a bad sign?), printing film reels / digital copies, marketing tours, etc.

So the actual money Disney has spent is at least $275M, probably closer to $300M. But M&G's worldwide take is already $246M, so no problem, right?

No, people forget that the amount reported is ticket sales - but the theaters themselves still take a cut of the ticker revenue.Historically in the US, we'd see splits like 80% of Week One goes to the production company (20% to the theater), 75 or 70% to the producers in Week 2, and 50/50 in Week 3+. Disney has tried to alter the percentage take they get over the last decade in their favor, but it's still not anywhere near 100% - it's probably still not 75% of the total, and 65% might be a safer estimate.

However, all those numbers are just domestic (which actually includes the US and Canada) - the international take is actually worse, with the % going to the movie producers being 50%, _at best_ - for some countries like China, it is more like 20%. (Which is why a lot of movies don't even get Chinese releases anymore - even if the Chinese government allows it, getting 20% of $20M just isn't worth the translation, advertising, etc. costs.)

So even being generous and giving Disney 75% of Domestic and 50% of International, Disney has currently returned $103M domestic and $55M int'l, or ~$160M total - they haven't even recovered the cost of production, much less advertisement.

But what about D+ revenues! Sure, Disney can _claim_ D+ spent $100M to get the rights to M&G in perpetuity, but that's just Disney paying Disney. If we look at it in terms of costs to produce episodes of The Mandalorian, if episodes still only cost $15M each (very unlikely with inflation), then at this point M&G the movie has cost Disney at least $100M, for what would be less than three episodes of The Mandalorian runtime, or less than $45M to make if they were S4. Claiming M&G is free money because it would have been S4 is wrong, because Disney has still lost more than it would cost to make three episodes of The Mandalorian.

But yes, the survival of Star Wars is a lot to put on Starfighter's shoulders, and yes, I expect the mother of all promotional budgets to kick in as soon as Doomsday is out.
 
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Tsar Bomba

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spronk said:
that number makes no sense, the budget is in the $150-175m range and with marketing push it'd need to clear $300m to turn a profit. Which it likely will with international but it would be a "we spent $300m to make $50 of profit" kinda shitty scenario.

but thats not the point, as bald is pointing out this was originally intended just to be season 4 but got turned into a movie. Any theatrical money is a bonus, not the goal. It'll play forever as the finale for the Mandalorian show in a few weeks, and it'll draw a trickle of new Disney+ subs who will watch Mando right after they sub. Forever. The theatrical box office is a bonus.

now of course if the movie had made $800m+ it would have unlocked Filoni completely and we would see an Ahsoka movie, a Thrawn movie, a Bad Batch movie, a Rebels movie, on and on. All that shit is shut down now, it pretty much confirms the theatrical box office ceiling is extremely low for Star Wars tv show spin off movies.

the bigger gamble is the Gosling Starfighter movie. If that also bombs then Lucas has no open paths at all other than rebooting Star Wars. Probably also means we won't see much movement on other Star Wars movies until its out.
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Look up Valiant Renegade on YT. Budget is closer to 250 million. There’s a possibility it will struggle to get to 350 million. It’s a bad weekend for Star Wars. 2 horror movies are knocking it out of the #1 spot
 
TomServo

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Wombat said:
In regards to profitability, the number is actually much closer to needing to hit $500M than not.

The "production budget" is listed at $165M. But that doesn't include a major amount in advertising, reportedly at least $100M (remember when their Super Bowl ad had nothing from the movie, and we all thought that was a bad sign?), printing film reels / digital copies, marketing tours, etc.

So the actual money Disney has spent is at least $275M, probably closer to $300M. But M&G's worldwide take is already $246M, so no problem, right?

No, people forget that the amount reported is ticket sales - but the theaters themselves still take a cut of the ticker revenue.Historically in the US, we'd see splits like 80% of Week One goes to the production company (20% to the theater), 75 or 70% to the producers in Week 2, and 50/50 in Week 3+. Disney has tried to alter the percentage take they get over the last decade in their favor, but it's still not anywhere near 100% - it's probably still not 75% of the total, and 65% might be a safer estimate.

However, all those numbers are just domestic (which actually includes the US and Canada) - the international take is actually worse, with the % going to the movie producers being 50%, _at best_ - for some countries like China, it is more like 20%. (Which is why a lot of movies don't even get Chinese releases anymore - even if the Chinese government allows it, getting 20% of $20M just isn't worth the translation, advertising, etc. costs.)

So even being generous and giving Disney 75% of Domestic and 50% of International, Disney has currently returned $103M domestic and $55M int'l, or ~$160M total - they haven't even recovered the cost of production, much less advertisement.

But what about D+ revenues! Sure, Disney can _claim_ D+ spent $100M to get the rights to M&G in perpetuity, but that's just Disney paying Disney. If we look at it in terms of costs to produce episodes of The Mandalorian, if episodes still only cost $15M each (very unlikely with inflation), then at this point M&G the movie has cost Disney at least $100M, for what would be less than three episodes of The Mandalorian runtime, or less than $45M to make if they were S4. Claiming M&G is free money because it would have been S4 is wrong, because Disney has still lost more than it would cost to make three episodes of The Mandalorian.

But yes, the survival of Star Wars is a lot to put on Starfighter's shoulders, and yes, I expect the mother of all promotional budgets to kick in as soon as Doomsday is out.
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Hey dummy. That 165 does not include any above the line costs
Director all actors etc. This shit is north of 200 production. And lmfao 100 marketing
 
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Bald Brah

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But you morons are missing the point. The last 3 seasons of Mando and Groku had 0$ theatrically. So what exactly are they losing? The sets, actors, etc are all financed under the disney+ umbrella. Any $$ they make theatrically are just icing on the cake. They would have spent the production dollars regardless.
 
Arbitrary

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The loss being everyone on the internet laughing at the movie for getting beat in its second week by Obsession's third week while losing money in the process. It's a year away but this film is just throwing gravel in Starfighter's path. Expensive gravel.
 
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Goatface

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Bald Brah said:
But you morons are missing the point. The last 3 seasons of Mando and Groku had 0$ theatrically. So what exactly are they losing? The sets, actors, etc are all financed under the disney+ umbrella. Any $$ they make theatrically are just icing on the cake. They would have spent the production dollars regardless.
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the movie cost roughly $1.4 million per min while the show was around $400k per min. every time a certain number of people watch the movie on d+, the mouse will have to pay some people royalties, while they don't for the show.

burger king spent tens of millions running promotions for the movie, if mando just does so-so or bad, those deals will be worth a lot less in the future. same for the companies making toys and other crap.
 
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Fucker

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Goatface said:
the movie cost roughly $1.4 million per min while the show was around $400k per min. every time a certain number of people watch the movie on d+, the mouse will have to pay some people royalties, while they don't for the show.

burger king spent tens of millions running promotions for the movie, if mando just does so-so or bad, those deals will be worth a lot less in the future. same for the companies making toys and other crap.
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I gather % of ticket sales drops if it is sucking. That it is already sucking wind one week into the run is bad news for Disney.

I am perpetually surprised Disney keeps giving these bozos projects to work on.
 
Burns

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Goatface said:
Every time a certain number of people watch the movie on d+, the mouse will have to pay some people royalties, while they don't for the show.
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Has this been confirmed somewhere as to how things currently work? I though the movie studios had found ways to effectively eliminate royalties in the 90s or 00s via creative accounting.
 
jayrebb

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"Now kill the past, disintegrate Luke if you have to". Gotta love restorative justice written Star Wars.

George also had a great opinion on Kathleen Kennedy's claim that she "invented female leads in Star Wars" when Star Wars already had strong female leads. Don't have it offhand, but he blasted the idea that Star Wars didn't respect women in the lead before Kennedy, considering he fucking created it, along with the women.

The Lucas's both made it clear where they stand.
 
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Runnen

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... said:
The toy makers are already getting their ass beat with heaps or unsold girl figures and uninteresting other toys
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As I said in a previous post, the toy manufacturers have long since adapated their lines to what works.

Hasbro and LEGO, the two main Star Wars stuff manufacturers, are focusing mostly on the original trilogy, a little less on the prequels, and a little on the current flavor of the month (Maul Shadow Lord and Mando & Grogu lately), but absolutely nothing from the sequel trilogy for years and years.

It's rather telling.
 
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