War with Syria

Big Phoenix

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The reason Americans take it personally is a UN intervention in this case means a US intervention. How much projection of power does Canada have? How much projection of power does the U.K. have? Pretty much zero compared to the US.
We did a lot of the heavy lifting recently for that little skirmish in Mali. Even in Europe's own backyard they cant do anything without significant support from the US.
 

fanaskin

Well known agitator
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Does Obama know he?s fighting on al-Qa?ida?s side?
?All for one and one for all? should be the battle cry if the West goes to war against Assad?s Syrian regime


The men who destroyed so many thousands on 9/11 will then be fighting alongside the very nation whose innocents they so cruelly murdered almost exactly 12 years ago. Quite an achievement for Obama, Cameron, Hollande and the rest of the miniature warlords.

This, of course, will not be trumpeted by the Pentagon or the White House ? nor, I suppose, by al-Qa?ida ? though they are both trying to destroy Bashar. So are the Nusra front, one of al-Qa?ida?s affiliates. But it does raise some interesting possibilities.

Maybe the Americans should ask al-Qa?ida for intelligence help ? after all, this is the group with ?boots on the ground?, something the Americans have no interest in doing. And maybe al-Qa?ida could offer some target information facilities to the country which usually claims that the supporters of al-Qa?ida, rather than the Syrians, are the most wanted men in the world.

There will be some ironies, of course. While the Americans drone al-Qa?ida to death in Yemen and Pakistan ? along, of course, with the usual flock of civilians ? they will be giving them, with the help of Messrs Cameron, Hollande and the other Little General-politicians, material assistance in Syria by hitting al-Qa?ida?s enemies. Indeed, you can bet your bottom dollar that the one target the Americans will not strike in Syria will be al-Qa?ida or the Nusra front.
 

iannis

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I don't see any parallel with the current situation whatsoever. Going after OBL has nothing to do with this Syrian war in either details or risks.

Also, the idea that Obama was taking some sort of risk and he made some heroic hard call to take out OBL like we did is just silly to me. His only other plausible route would have been some sort of drone or airstrike to take out OBL, with the very huge downside of then there being no way to prove that we killed him. Not informing Pakistan was a complete no-brainer because of how in bed some elements of Pakistan are with the taliban.

Now yes, bad things could have happened if it had failed or shit had gone south. However, having it known that they had intel on OBL and did nothing was a far greater political risk to Obama than a single seal team of 6 people (jk, wru Merlin) wiped out.
Oh nobody's claiming parallels. We're saying that there was a risk involved in that decision, and there was. Worst case could have been Jimmy Carter bad -- just like deciding to forgo the opportunity would have been Jimmy Carter bad. So no, it wasn't a heroic decision, it seems to have been a fairly obvious one. Still doesn't mean it was a safe one. There was a risk in Libya as well. Obama is not adverse to this kind of risk. That's the similarity but it's not a parallel. He's willing to use the military in ways that might not work out so well. Which all Presidents are. I'm not even attacking him with that observation. They've gone better for him than they've gone badly. That sort of thing probably isn't blind luck.

The problem is, there's no potential upside this time. Absolutely none that I can see. The goal is not regime change, the goal is punitive military action for a breach of international law. Even the best case is worse than non-involvement. But Obama has painted himself into a corner. It seems to me that the best he can do is use the U.N. to save face.
 

Lleauaric

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If AQ is fighting the Syrians, wouldn't Otto Von Bismarck do everything he could to EXTEND the war? "Our enemies are killing each other.. How lovely.. Pass the weinerschnitzel"

Obviously we want to protect Jordan and Iraq from becoming unstable from refugees... But fuck.. Maybe we bomb just enough to allow stalemate to reaffirm itself.

It obviously extremely immoral and even evil to do so... But if there was a pure best interest choice...
 

Tuco

I got Tuco'd!
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If AQ is fighting the Syrians, wouldn't Otto Von Bismarck do everything he could to EXTEND the war? "Our enemies are killing each other.. How lovely.. Pass the weinerschnitzel"

Obviously we want to protect Jordan and Iraq from becoming unstable from refugees... But fuck.. Maybe we bomb just enough to allow stalemate to reaffirm itself.

It obviously extremely immoral and even evil to do so... But if there was a pure best interest choice...
Depending on how the hand is played that seems very possible. But I feel like once the west releases the dogs of war and starts showing the difference in level it changes it even if the actual attacks aren't devastating. It's like if a level 20 warrior is beating on a level 15rogue and then a level 60 shaman shows up and torpors the warrior and starts to /dance.
 

Famm

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Yeah but what if the rogue is fully twinked out and we know they are Verant's pet class anyway and warriors have been gimped for everything but tanking for so long now, I mean its simple justice at that point.
 

Aaron

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Some interesting developments according to Debka File (for those who don't know, Debka File is an Isreali "news" source highly linked with Israeli Intelligence. They often have pretty good inside news stories, and also often some planted propaganda. It can be hard to tell the difference sometimes!).

Obama says no decision yet on strike on Syria. DEBKA: He stalls for deal with Putin on softened strike

In the face of statements by senior US officials that the Obama administration had crossed the Rubicon on military intervention in Syria, President Barack Obama declared early Thursday, Aug. 29, that he had not yet made a decision on whether to order a military strike against Syria. Although Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel announced that US armed forces were ?ready to go,? Obama said he was still examining options with his security team.
The US president added that he had no doubt that chemical weapons were used by the Syrian regime, not the rebels, saying that for violating international norms and human decency, Assad ?should be held accountable.?
At the same time, the White House suddenly appeared Wednesday night to be engaging in maneuvers for buying time and holding up military action against Syria, after the armies of the Middle East and half of Europe were already standing ready after completing massive war preparations.
One such maneuver was a leak from White House sources about a delay in releasing to America and the world the promised evidence of Assad?s culpability in the use of chemical weapons against the Syrian people. It was postponed because ?the report was not yet ready.?
Another were grumbles from the president?s circle that President Obama had found himself jammed in an awkward timeline generated by his foreign travel schedule ? he is due to take off next Wednesday, Sept. 4, for Sweden on his way to the G-20 summit in St. Petersburg of Sep. 5-6.
This left the optimal dates for his decision to go through with the attack as Friday night, early Saturday, Aug. 31 or after Labor Day, which falls on Sept. 2.
Although Obama appeared still to be standing by that decision, DEBKAfile?s Washington and Moscow sources disclose he has applied the brakes on the momentum for its implemention to buy time for US Secretary of State John Kerry to wind up secret negotiations with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and strike a deal: The US would soften its military action against the Assad regime and his army and reduce it to a token blow, after which the American and Russian presidents would announce the convening of Geneva-2 to hammer out a solution of the Syrian crisis and end the civil war.
The Kerry-Lavrov back channel has not yet achieved results and so, Thursday, the fate of the US strike on Syria was still highly fluid and its timeline changeable.
If true then it would seem that Obama has realised that Syria's allies are not going to let the US & co. bomb Syria back to the stone age while they sit back and twiddle their thumbs. However, as Obama has talked himself into a corner with regards to airstrikes he can't really back away, whereas he probably doesn't want to get into a shooting war with Russia. Russia, meanwhile, will not allow Obama to destroy Syria's defensive capability. What may happen is that Obama and Putin will try and find a "face saving" way out of this for both sides. Obama will get to blow up some unmanned army posts of little significance while the others do nothing but hurl diplomatic insults, then they'll get together in a back room at the G20 meeting and hammer something out. Probably Assad will remain in power but will have to relinquish some powers to an elected parliament or somesuch.

This may well be the 21st century version of the Cuban Missile Crisis we're living in now.
 

Running Dog_sl

shitlord
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The UK has quite a bit, they would be our main ally again and they are understandably as reticent as we are.
"It is without modern precedent for a prime minister to lose control of his foreign policy, let alone decisions about peace and war. That, though, is what has happened in the past 24 hours.

David Cameron summoned MPs to return early from their summer break in order to vote for British involvement in military strikes against Syria within days. The timetable was not his. It was President Obama's. Obama is said to have wanted to act before leaving the US for a foreign trip next Tuesday.

If he still wants to stick to that timetable, Britain will no longer be with him.

The government simply could not guarantee that its own MPs would give it a majority in the vote tonight. They needed Labour's support...
[Labour] are tabling an amendment which sets out what they call a "road map" to a decision - in effect a series of hurdles that have to be crossed before action can be taken.

The one that could prove trickiest is the one that may seem the easiest. It is the call for "compelling evidence" that chemical weapons were used by the Assad regime.

The UN weapons inspectors in Damascus will not produce that evidence."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23879744
 

Famm

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Some interesting developments according to Debka File (for those who don't know, Debka File is an Isreali "news" source highly linked with Israeli Intelligence. They often have pretty good inside news stories, and also often some planted propaganda. It can be hard to tell the difference sometimes!).

Obama says no decision yet on strike on Syria. DEBKA: He stalls for deal with Putin on softened strike



If true then it would seem that Obama has realised that Syria's allies are not going to let the US & co. bomb Syria back to the stone age while they sit back and twiddle their thumbs. However, as Obama has talked himself into a corner with regards to airstrikes he can't really back away, whereas he probably doesn't want to get into a shooting war with Russia. Russia, meanwhile, will not allow Obama to destroy Syria's defensive capability. What may happen is that Obama and Putin will try and find a "face saving" way out of this for both sides. Obama will get to blow up some unmanned army posts of little significance while the others do nothing but hurl diplomatic insults, then they'll get together in a back room at the G20 meeting and hammer something out. Probably Assad will remain in power but will have to relinquish some powers to an elected parliament or somesuch.

This may well be the 21st century version of the Cuban Missile Crisis we're living in now.
Seems like that would follow in Russia's supposed main goals of appearing to be a major world power broker. That would place them on the world stage as a negotiating power that isn't to be ignored.
 

Silence_sl

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"It is without modern precedent for a prime minister to lose control of his foreign policy, let alone decisions about peace and war. That, though, is what has happened in the past 24 hours.

David Cameron summoned MPs to return early from their summer break in order to vote for British involvement in military strikes against Syria within days. The timetable was not his. It was President Obama's. Obama is said to have wanted to act before leaving the US for a foreign trip next Tuesday.

If he still wants to stick to that timetable, Britain will no longer be with him.

The government simply could not guarantee that its own MPs would give it a majority in the vote tonight. They needed Labour's support...
[Labour] are tabling an amendment which sets out what they call a "road map" to a decision - in effect a series of hurdles that have to be crossed before action can be taken.

The one that could prove trickiest is the one that may seem the easiest. It is the call for "compelling evidence" that chemical weapons were used by the Assad regime.

The UN weapons inspectors in Damascus will not produce that evidence."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23879744
You left off the most important bit:

"The one that could prove trickiest is the one that may seem the easiest. It is the call for "compelling evidence" that chemical weapons were used by the Assad regime.

The UN weapons inspectors in Damascus will not produce that evidence.

Their mandate is not to discover who used chemical weapons. It is to confirm whether they were used
. "

Scary shit, right there.
 

fanaskin

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O'Reilly arguing with military analyst guests who say; what is the strategic goal? the rebels would be worse than Assad. don't interrupt your enemies when they are killing each other. How can we be sure who actually used chemical weapons?


debate starts at 2:52
 

Aaron

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O'Reilly's arguing with military analyst guests who say; what is the strategic goal? the rebels would be worse than Assad. don't interrupt your enemies when they are killing each other. How can we be sure who actually used chemical weapons?

I never thought I'd see the day where paid FOX military analysts argued together against O'Reilly's warmongering. There is hope for humanity after all. And talking about O'Reilly, the fact that this clown is still taken seriously enough to be on one of the US's largest "news" networks is beyond belief!
 

Running Dog_sl

shitlord
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There's a right political shitstorm brewing over this in the UK. The government has dug itself into a hole and is desperately trying to legally justify a strike against Syria, but the numbers may be against it when the votes are called. MPs got burned badly over justifications for the Iraq war and they aren't about to make the same mistake twice.