Weather

Sanrith Descartes

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So some friendly information on the financial fallout of this. My electric company, which is a not for profit city utility posted that they paid 220 million for power to operate over the worst 3 days. Their typical operating costs are under 200 million per year. This is 4150$ per customer. Assuming the 2.5 people per customer holds true to the state as a whole, and assuming that 66% of the state's population was effected (probably higher), we can extrapolate that texas spent in excess of 32 billion on power in a 3 day time span.

Thankfully my city is red as fuck, so we had that sitting around as change in the bank.
Hedging: the act of reducing uncertainty about future (unknown) price movements in a COMMODITY (rubber, tea, etc.), FINANCIAL SECURITY (share, stock etc.) and FOREIGN CURRENCY. This can be done by undertaking forward sales or purchases of the commodity, security or currency in the FORWARD MARKET; or by taking out an OPTION which limits the option holder's exposure to price fluctuations.
 

Malakriss

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Was checking twitter for Castlevania S4 news and instead see this retweeted

 
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Phelps McManus

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Hedging: the act of reducing uncertainty about future (unknown) price movements in a COMMODITY (rubber, tea, etc.), FINANCIAL SECURITY (share, stock etc.) and FOREIGN CURRENCY. This can be done by undertaking forward sales or purchases of the commodity, security or currency in the FORWARD MARKET; or by taking out an OPTION which limits the option holder's exposure to price fluctuations.

By the numbers, they had 105 hours of scarcity pricing near the $9,000/MWh offer cap and roughly 50 GW of load. That equates to $50 billion being paid for power over 5 days. You are right that some, likely more than half, was hedged with power swaps and heat rate call options (HRCOs). This shifted a lot of the risk to suppliers.

Wind plants likely sold power for $35/MWh with some hourly fixed shape based on their historical generation profile. If they were frozen, they now owe the counterparty millions and have no revenue to cover it. Even if they could generate, it was likely below the fixed shape notional of their swap and settling extremely negative.

Gas-fired power plants could have sold normal power swaps or HRCOs. If they could not get gas, they are still on the hook for settling the hedges. A 400 MW peaker that typically made $30-35 million of margin per year for the past 5 years, would now owe the hedge counterparty $250 million based on where the market settled over just 5 days. Sometimes HRCO's are "unit-contingent", which would give the power plant an out for force majeure, but simple financial derivatives are more common.

After STP unit 1 tripped, NRG stock dropped over 10%, as they had sold power swaps and cannot cover - plus any retail load exposure they have. There will be carnage all around.
 
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Big Phoenix

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Was checking twitter for Castlevania S4 news and instead see this retweeted

"I didnt know i shouldnt use my charcoal grill inside the house!"

Fucking idiots I swear. God damn humanity is just fucking unbelievably dumb.
 

Furry

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Sometimes HRCO's are "unit-contingent", which would give the power plant an out for force majeure, but simple financial derivatives are more common.

If this isn't a force majeure situation, I don't know what is. I'll bet texas sets up a commission to brow beat people and there will be some strong pressure to have deals worked out despite what the contracts say.
 

rhinohelix

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Boil water notices have been lifted, and we have our outside pipes all repaired, finally. I think I must have called every plumber on the West Side of the city but finally got a couple that did the trick. Had one show up with no parts, so I ran him off. Then another showed up with just his tool belt and some putty? Fixed what we thought was the only leak. After Mr. Putty, who told me he was approx. 15 month immigrant from Venezuela with Syrian parents (whatever, it was either true or a super-complicated cover story for some who only recognizes the occasional word in Spanish) patched the first leak and left, after celebrating we found the two other outside pipes for water leaking as well. Next plumber showed up with a Van full of parts and specialized equipment, and repaired everything else. He left Mr. Putty's job for another time as it "fixed" but he looked down his nose at it as it "wasn't done by a professional but a handyman."

Now I can't wait to take a shower and restock and recover. I still need to get us a camp stove and to get the fire place recertified, which has needed to be done since the lift (but wasn't done because there was a family of racoons living in the chimney, and my wife and daughters have soft hearts for animals). After the 40f house, though, anything living in there can GTFO or be BBQ. Also a couple of rain barrels, since shlepping buckets across the street isn't awesome, although great forum fodder.
 
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Borzak

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Crazy weather even for the south. One day it's 14, a week later the high is forecast for 80.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Crazy weather even for the south. One day it's 14, a week later the high is forecast for 80.
The aliens are prepping the climate for their arrival. Get used to it. Don't fight it like this guy tried to do.

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Erronius

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OK, can anyone explain this to me?

How do people expect their employer to pay them, if and when they simply can't work?

I've been seeing this pop up around social media, and I keep feeling like there's something I'm missing. (there might not be, and it might be as simple as people want free money, but I don't know what to say)

 

Malakriss

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OK, can anyone explain this to me?

How do people expect their employer to pay them, if and when they simply can't work?

I've been seeing this pop up around social media, and I keep feeling like there's something I'm missing. (there might not be, and it might be as simple as people want free money, but I don't know what to say)

A defense company telling employees to "use their vacation days" would be a problem. Every other story about how no one could work is fluff and pads the article.
 

Fucker

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OK, can anyone explain this to me?

How do people expect their employer to pay them, if and when they simply can't work?

I've been seeing this pop up around social media, and I keep feeling like there's something I'm missing. (there might not be, and it might be as simple as people want free money, but I don't know what to say)

I have no idea. There were times when work was called off due to weather. We didn't get paid for no work, but also not being at work wasn't counted against you. No one ever complained.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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I have no idea. There were times when work was called off due to weather. We didn't get paid for no work, but also not being at work wasn't counted against you. No one ever complained.
Liberals view complaining the way they view breathing. A way of life.
 
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