Weather

Gravel · Wednesday at 7:49 PM

We were going to wait until tomorrow morning to see how it went, but I think we're just going to go ahead and bounce. Seems like it's going to go right up our buttholes. Even if we don't get a direct hit, we're basically dead center of all these cones so we'll get walloped pretty hard.

Seems like nearly everyone we know around here is staying though.

BrutulTM · 2026-10-08T00:16:34-0400

Juvarisx said:
Currently tracking looks like this

View attachment 643072

I guess it's Baton Rouge I should have been worrying about more than Houston.

Juvarisx · 2026-10-08T00:35:23-0400

BrutulTM said:
I guess it's Baton Rouge I should have been worrying about more than Houston.

Jim Cantore is in Pensacola for you Florida weather nerds out there. So betting odds is he isnt too far off where he feels it will make landfall.

Gravel · 2026-10-08T13:26:47-0400

Gravel said:
We were going to wait until tomorrow morning to see how it went, but I think we're just going to go ahead and bounce. Seems like it's going to go right up our buttholes. Even if we don't get a direct hit, we're basically dead center of all these cones so we'll get walloped pretty hard.

Seems like nearly everyone we know around here is staying though.

Well, scratch all that. This morning we decided to stay put. I was concerned that if we left, getting back would be a nightmare. And we'd be trading hurricane winds for very high tornado possibilities wherever we went. Plus, with how fast this thing is moving, it looks like we basically just have to last about 12 hours and this thing will be in northern Alabama by the afternoon.

Most of the models have moved it a bit west of us, although many of these AI ones have it nailing us. Not really sure it matters either way.

Juvarisx · 2026-10-08T13:46:36-0400

Gravel said:
Well, scratch all that. This morning we decided to stay put. I was concerned that if we left, getting back would be a nightmare. And we'd be trading hurricane winds for very high tornado possibilities wherever we went. Plus, with how fast this thing is moving, it looks like we basically just have to last about 12 hours and this thing will be in northern Alabama by the afternoon.

Most of the models have moved it a bit west of us, although many of these AI ones have it nailing us. Not really sure it matters either way.

You want to be on the weest side of landfall to avoid the "dirty" side of a hurricane. Higher winds and particularly storm surge depending on how close to the ocean you are on those sides of a hurricane. During Ian my place was hit dead on, but south of us, particularly Fort Myers got all the water damage.

Gravel · 2026-10-08T14:04:08-0400

I'm not sure where we'll end up in relation to the storm. The "human" models all have it hitting near Mobile Bay. The AI all have it smacking right into us (Gulf Breeze).

Wife and I are both really not looking forward to a night of it sounding like our house is trying to kill us.

Gravel · 2026-10-09T08:22:32-0400

Kind of regretting our decision to stay. Too late to leave now though. On the plus side most of our neighbors are staying as well. But we're getting the eye almost guaranteed at this point, and it's looking like high cat 2 to low cat 3 at landfall.

Guess we'll find out how well this house is built real soon.

Juvarisx · 2026-10-09T08:52:29-0400

Gravel said:
Kind of regretting our decision to stay. Too late to leave now though. On the plus side most of our neighbors are staying as well. But we're getting the eye almost guaranteed at this point, and it's looking like high cat 2 to low cat 3 at landfall.

Guess we'll find out how well this house is built real soon.

How close to the ocean are you?

Gravel · 2026-10-09T09:34:03-0400

We're between Pensacola Bay and the Santa Rosa Sound. Probably 1-2 miles inland from both. We're basically dead center on the cone.

I wasn't super worried about the water. We're high enough that storm surge won't be a big deal, however, now we're forecast for anywhere between 8-15 inches of rain. So we might get flooding from that now.

As I was typing this, just got a call from the county saying zone C is now mandatory evacuation. Which seems like short notice. We're not in an evacuation zone though.

Mostly concerned with the wind though. The thing I thought might happen did happen, which is that they'd expect less strengthening overnight, and the wind shear to knock it down a bunch. The wind shear basically will barely impact it. So that sucks.

TomServo · 2026-10-09T09:35:13-0400

Gravel said:
Kind of regretting our decision to stay. Too late to leave now though. On the plus side most of our neighbors are staying as well. But we're getting the eye almost guaranteed at this point, and it's looking like high cat 2 to low cat 3 at landfall.

Guess we'll find out how well this house is built real soon.

So bit of context for you. I have been through 2 cat 2 to 3 hurricanes. the one in 2022 in a rental and another in my own home built in 2023 that happened in 2024. your house being built post 2020 meaning 2020 or later is good news. neither one of our houses lost so much as a shingle. zero damage. it will be loud and a bit unnerving but you at least will be going through it during daylight hours. just be aware keep check of stuff during. it was for sure the better idea to stay. if you have neighbors ask them any questions you have. should be a good resource.

Juvarisx · 2026-10-09T09:39:33-0400

Gravel said:
We're between Pensacola Bay and the Santa Rosa Sound. Probably 1-2 miles inland from both. We're basically dead center on the cone.

I wasn't super worried about the water. We're high enough that storm surge won't be a big deal, however, now we're forecast for anywhere between 8-15 inches of rain. So we might get flooding from that now.

As I was typing this, just got a call from the county saying zone C is now mandatory evacuation. Which seems like short notice. We're not in an evacuation zone though.

Mostly concerned with the wind though. The thing I thought might happen did happen, which is that they'd expect less strengthening overnight, and the wind shear to knock it down a bunch. The wind shear basically will barely impact it. So that sucks.

Yea they will do mandatory evacs up till its unsafe to get to the shelters. Glad you are not in an evac zone, they really just do them for water as modern houses will survive wind outside of a tornado ofcourse. While you still have internet you should see if theres an AirBNB 20/30 miles west in a day or so out if you are staying. They will be opening up as people who evacuated leave em. After its done you may want a place to go that has power / water / air conditioning and if its not bad you can always cancel it. With a cat 2 though I suspect only a day or two hopefully without power.

Gravel · 2026-10-09T09:44:43-0400

TomServo said:
So bit of context for you. I have been through 2 cat 2 to 3 hurricanes. the one in 2022 in a rental and another in my own home built in 2023 that happened in 2024. your house being built post 2020 meaning 2020 or later is good news. neither one of our houses lost so much as a shingle. zero damage. it will be loud and a bit unnerving but you at least will be going through it during daylight hours. just be aware keep check of stuff during. it was for sure the better idea to stay. if you have neighbors ask them any questions you have. should be a good resource.

Were they direct hits though? That's what my wife keeps saying about locals how they've been through hurricanes before. There's a difference between getting hit and being 50 miles down the coast where you get minor tropical winds.

Like, we "went through" Frances and Ike in 2004 in Siesta Key, but they didn't nail us directly.

I'm sure we'll be fine. I'm just not looking forward to the sound of my house trying not to be ripped apart, and all the shit that will inevitably be hitting it.

On the plus side, we basically get through about 6 hours 6-7pm through 12-1am) and it'll be gone.

Juvarisx · 2026-10-09T09:48:21-0400

Gravel said:
Were they direct hits though? That's what my wife keeps saying about locals how they've been through hurricanes before. There's a difference between getting hit and being 50 miles down the coast where you get minor tropical winds.

Like, we "went through" Frances and Ike in 2004 in Siesta Key, but they didn't nail us directly.

I'm sure we'll be fine. I'm just not looking forward to the sound of my house trying not to be ripped apart, and all the shit that will inevitably be hitting it.

On the plus side, we basically get through about 6 hours 6-7pm through 12-1am) and it'll be gone.

Even direct at a 2 should be fine. When we got our roof replaced it was rated up to 185 which is an average gust of a cat 5.

TomServo · 2026-10-09T10:26:06-0400

eyewall both times. slow storm as well

Gravel · 2026-10-09T10:40:27-0400

TomServo said:
eyewall both times. slow storm as well

Good deal. You said check on things during...like what? It'll be dark out, and I imagine our power will likely go out sometime before 5pm today. With landfall looking like between 7-9pm.

We're drugging the dogs and then likely going to just huddle together for a few hours until it passes.

TomServo · 2026-10-09T10:43:00-0400

well i mean as i dont know your situation. no small objects left outside, make sure doors that could have driving rain are sandbagged or at a min use towels at the base of them. put car in garage. not much more than that. i just meant if you have a pool monitor the water levels. if you have a cage screen either cut the screen or untuck it to allow wind to blow through.

vGrade · 2026-10-09T11:06:38-0400

Gravel said:
Good deal. You said check on things during...like what? It'll be dark out, and I imagine our power will likely go out sometime before 5pm today. With landfall looking like between 7-9pm.

We're drugging the dogs and then likely going to just huddle together for a few hours until it passes.

I mean worse case scenario is your internet will be down so no WOW, EQ Legends or Monsters and memories

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