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  1. Gurgeh

    The Summer 2019 Anime Thread

    I've taken a liking for Kanata no Astra, still I'm wondering how long can it average with one twist per episode.
  2. Gurgeh

    Marriage and the Power of Divorce

    How bad are her "fuck patriarchy" friends ? I mean, stuff like femen or vegan activist are documented on video to behave very much like the worst sects, trying to isolate people out of their family & friends to recruit more adepts. If someone like that is undermining you, it can be insanely...
  3. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    I'm just going to quote that $25B fund manager, who's making an even stronger claim than me and putting $1B on it : Which is basicaly extremely close to what I've argued so far. You'll even notice that the guy is making the exact same assumption as I am in his second sentence : an individual...
  4. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    And you're right, it is indeed a good way to invest, most certainly. But I naively thought that an investing thread was a thread in which we could discuss investing strategy, not a thread in which every post is answered by : get an ETF.
  5. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    I've posted half a dozen article on the topic, that all points at my claims not being outlandish. You've just been screaming "you can't be right" with no argument, but yeah I'm starting to get why this thread isn"t getting much action, it's just to compare the relative size of dicks. All I said...
  6. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    https://www.cnbc.com/2014/07/25/random-stock-picking-will-beat-sp-fund-manager.html https://www.forbes.com/sites/frederickallen/2013/01/15/cat-beats-professionals-at-stock-picking/#258e275a621a https://www.ft.com/content/abd15744-9793-11e2-b7ef-00144feabdc0 What I find a bit odd, is that I...
  7. Gurgeh

    Funny, Strange, Random Pics

  8. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    Posting a pic of an ugly guy dating a supermodel isn't going to prove that ugly guys usually date supermodels anyway. I don't even understand why that would be even remotely relevant to discussing a strategy. If you want to study the efficiency of a random strategy you obviously need to...
  9. Gurgeh

    Funny, Strange, Random Pics

    The black border dual land you see aren't alpha or beta, they're the french edition, the white bordered ones are unlimited/revised. The only beta on that picture is one of the fireballs. It's funny that it seems my cards might be worth several thousands dollars.
  10. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    That's a cultural thing I guess, I don't feel more confortable posting a pic of my dick than one of my savings or my paycheck. It's kinda taboo in France.
  11. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    That being said, their proof isn't what I would have been doing, and I'll try to find the time this week to change the R code a little bit to actually compare a few indexes with random picks, because a lot of the ETF they're using are a bit too exotic to be pertinent, so the sample of ETFs has...
  12. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    So, whoever has the biggest dick is right ? I'm not posting the absolute value of my investments and I posted enough information about it. Which is why they're comparing the quartiles and median of the return of ETF and random stocks ? You realise that an ETF is also random, right ? So they're...
  13. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    they're using a 300 samples of 2 to 50 random stocks picks, yeah, indeed. I'm not quite sure what's your point.
  14. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    They're godamn using 2 to 50 random stocks... And the difference isn't much.
  15. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    They also compared the random strategy to index. And there is this one, that you can replicate at home with R https://towardsdatascience.com/could-a-random-portfolio-management-be-applicable-to-investing-ba2d526c83ff
  16. Gurgeh

    Funny, Strange, Random Pics

    Found my sets at my parents house the other day, haven't been used in about 20 years... Pretty sure it's investment thread material ! I use to buy the double land for $1.5 to $3 at the end.
  17. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    I'm not going to beat S&P500 with CAC40 stocks ! But still, I'm nearly 2% above cac40 with 69.61% of directly owned stocks, and 30% of ETF (about 2/3rd of them being Korea/Japan/Russia) I've got 15 stocks and 6 different ETF, but I'm not following the weighting of the cac40, only 4.87% of...
  18. Gurgeh

    Thailand

    Just don't call them vietcongs when in vietnam ! And Yeah do not go to nha trang it's unfortunately a lair of lower middle class Russians looking for young prostitutes.
  19. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    Well you need to at the least have basic knowledge of all 3 to understand finance a little bit. So I'm going to explain what they did in the research the forbes article mentionned : (it's not exactly that but it's close enough to understand how it involves probabilities, statistics and game...
  20. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    So, if I have to invest on a 6 faced dice or a 20 faced dice, the amount I'm ready to pay for that investment doesn't depend on the expected value ? The results of the rolls are irrevelant to what i'm willing to bet. By nature a stock is a random variable, the moment I'm investing on it, I'm...
  21. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    They are distributions, you moron, if they were sample you'd know the outcome. When you invest you don't know the outcome, obvously.
  22. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value You're the ones being fucktarded, especialy given the context of the discussion.
  23. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    If we're discussing finance strategy, I'm guessing we're talking ex-ante not ex-post. If I consider a 6 faced dice roll and I have to invest on it, I can't know what roll I will get, and the average, or mean, or you're right more accurately the expected value is 3.5. It's true that it is...
  24. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    Because you know the roll you're going to get before investing ? If you're investing on a single 6 faced dice roll, on average you're getting 3.5. I mean, I hate to have to link a wikipedia page, but in that case of high school mathematics, I kinda have to...
  25. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    If you roll a dice once, you have an average of 3.5. If you roll and infinite number of dice, your average is still 3.5, but the likelyhood of getting 3.5 is 1.
  26. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    Just spent 1 minute googling it : Computer Simulation Suggests That The Best Investment Strategy Is A Random One They say it's counterintuitive, but it's pretty much Games Theory 101, uninformed players strategy (ok, in a single shot game) No it is not, if I use a 6 faced dice, I'll get on...
  27. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    0.3% is vanguard global ETF fee 10% is 30 years of losing 0.3% 99.999% is out of my ass, but I must be close. Because if you've made a few hundreds draw of stuff with a 0 average and a relatively low variability (around the index) your total variability is ridiculously low, so to beat even a...
  28. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    If you use vanguard you'll constantly perform around 0.3% under the index, while if you pick at random... You'll perform on average exactly the index. The variability going down the more pick you make, going to 0. 0.3% per year is a lot for a retirement plan, after 30 years you've just lost...
  29. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    If you pick at random twice a month for 4 years according to the weight of the index you're trying to match, the difference between your portfolio and the index is going to be very small and the variability likely to be below the fees of the ETF. ETF can be fine, but you do need to read the...
  30. Gurgeh

    Investing General Discussion

    ETF are nice if you're in a hurry to invest, but if you can afford to DCA your investment over a few years, picking stocks at random beat the ETF in the long run because of lesser fees. It's important to pick at random, as it is the optimal strategy of the uninformed player, and you should...
  31. Gurgeh

    Nintendo Switch (previously NX)

    Personnaly, I specificaly bought it for this reason : I can play with my very young daughter (she's 2.5 and already spending about 30 mn a day on it...), in my opinion it is more than fine that Nintendo managed to stay true to themselves over nearly 40 years. We don't need all the devices to be...
  32. Gurgeh

    The Paranormal, UFO's, and Mysteries of the Unknown

    Now this thread is the least crazy one in that subforum, go figure.
  33. Gurgeh

    The Summer 2019 Anime Thread

    I totally thought it would end in a gayer way.
  34. Gurgeh

    Thailand

    If you don't think you'll ever come back to Asia, and it's your first time there, I'd suggest going to Japan, Taiwan or Korea + Thailand. You'll see two very different faces of Asia. Combodia by bus, I wouldn't recommend on the first trip in the area, even Vietnam is getting difficult these...
  35. Gurgeh

    The Rook

    I can totally recall it.
  36. Gurgeh

    Parent Thread

    You're right, no one need to know, and the biggest risk for most of the "autists" is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
  37. Gurgeh

    Interesting, Non Political News

    Kind of a vicious circle, active population decreasing, so no unemployment, lots of extra hours, which lead to people not having time to marry/have kids... In a country in which most people are employable and have high work ethic, it's getting a problem. That being said, Japanese are...
  38. Gurgeh

    Interesting, Non Political News

    You're probably right, with proper training, those accidents would probably have been avoided. And at some point a plane designed in the 60's got to be redisgned from scratch. I'm pretty sure that Airbus are also shitting their pants with the A321XLR, at some point, you need a new plane (even...
  39. Gurgeh

    Parent Thread

    Half of this board would also, nowadays, I bet. Fuck, it's difficult to not find a kid these days that isn't diagnosed with autism, dyslexia, dysgraphia, dyscalulia,.... When my daughter was 3 months old some stupid ass doctor diagnosed her with sleeping disorder when I told her she was waking...
  40. Gurgeh

    Interesting, Non Political News

    They might not even be trying to find a technical solution anymore, but rather a financial and industrial one, before calling the 737 max dead. I think they can still recover fairly well by switching from 737 max to 737 NG (which is a good plane), and companies won't have much choice, they'll...